Event: Baosteel Packaging released its third quarterly report in 2022. 2022Q1-3 achieved an operating income of 6.215 billion yuan, an increase of 25.43% over the same period last year, a net profit of 211 million yuan, an increase of 3.42%, and a net profit of 201 million yuan, an increase of 1.15% over the same period last year. Among them, 2022Q3 achieved operating income of 2.38 billion yuan in the current quarter, an increase of 34.75% over the same period last year; net profit of 74 million yuan, up 44.94% over the same period last year; and net profit of 70 million yuan, an increase of 38.57% over the same period last year.
The release of production capacity, the landing of price increases, the smooth progress of capacity expansion, the outstanding performance of 22Q3 22Q3 benefited from the alleviation of the epidemic, the recovery of terminal demand, while the continuous improvement of beer canning rate drove the continuous growth of demand. The company's Anhui, Lanzhou, Malaysia base and other production capacity continued to release, sales increased compared with the same period last year, while the company price increase, product prices increased, 22Q3 revenue growth increased, revenue increased 34.75% to 2.38 billion yuan.
The company's production capacity expansion at home and abroad is progressing smoothly. 1) overseas, the company speeds up the development of the Southeast Asian market, 22Q2 increases new customer orders and intentions, and further expands the customer base.
Control in Vietnam has been completely liberalized, Malaysia's production capacity (design capacity of 800 million cans / year) has reached the commissioning stage in June 22, and Cambodia's production capacity (design capacity of 1.2 billion cans / year) officially started at the end of April 22. 2) on the domestic side, Anhui production capacity (design capacity of 1.1 billion cans / year) was put into production at 22H1, and 22Q3 is expected to release capacity gradually; Lanzhou capacity (design capacity of 1 billion cans / year) was put into production at the end of 21, and the production capacity continued to climb in 22 years. In addition, the company continues to promote technical transformation, expansion projects, upgrade and transform the older production lines, and improve production efficiency.
Q3 net interest rate improved compared with the same period last year, and cost control was in place during the period
In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of 22Q1-3 was 8.26%, down 2.66% from the same period last year. 22Q3 gross profit margin was 7.57%, down 2.03pct from the same period last year. 22Q3's gross profit margin has declined from the previous month, which is expected to be mainly due to the high price of aluminum raw materials and the climbing of new production capacity. At the beginning of Q2, aluminum prices have fallen somewhat, and the follow-up company's profitability is expected to be repaired.
In terms of period expenses, the period expense rate of 22Q1-3 is 3.55%, which is down 1.56pct from the same period last year. The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 0.89%, 2.18%, 0.21% and 0.27%, respectively, and + 0.07pct/-1.04pct/-0.64pct/+0.06pct respectively. Among them, the rate of management expenses has declined, we analyze that the main departments of the company continue to strengthen fine management, continue to promote the transformation of mathematical intelligence, strengthen the construction of professional management information system, and effectively improve management efficiency. Under the combined influence, the company's 22Q1-3 net interest rate was 3.57%, down 0.91pct from the same period last year; 22Q3 net interest rate was 3.37%, an increase of 0.23pct over the same period last year.
In terms of cash flow, the net operating cash flow of 22Q1-3 was-243 million yuan, down 145.11% from the same period last year, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in operating income and the increase in accounts receivable from the beginning of 2022. Accounts receivable generated during the peak season is still in the credit period, superimposed by the collection of accounts receivable due in 2021 ahead of schedule.
Investment advice: as a leader in metal packaging, the company continues to optimize product structure and capacity layout, with the optimization of the industry pattern, profitability is expected to improve, pre-equity incentives highlight profit repair confidence, performance is expected to continue to grow. We estimate that the operating income of Baosteel Packaging will be 86.15, 100.95 and 11.904 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 23.63%, 17.19% and 17.92% over the same period last year, and the net profit will be 3.10,3.64 and 435 million yuan respectively, an increase of 14.51%, 17.47% and 19.48% over the same period last year, corresponding to PE of 25.2x, 21.4x and 17.9x.
Risk tips: repeated risk of global epidemic; risk of fluctuation of raw material prices; risk of lower-than-expected demand, lower-than-expected risk of capacity investment, etc.