Event: the company recently released the third quarter report of 2022, Q3 realized revenue of 6.065 billion yuan, year-on-year + 107.42%, month-on-month + 16.32%; realized net profit of 1.454 billion yuan, + 88.61%, month-on-month + 3.27%; realized non-return net profit of 1.368 billion yuan, + 83.80%, month-on-month-1.72%. The total revenue in the first three quarters was 16.428 billion yuan, + 148.06% compared with the same period last year, with a net profit of 4.36 billion, + 180.65% compared with the same period last year.
Under the pressure of electrolyte price correction, profitability remains strong. With the gradual release of industry production capacity, the price of Q3 electrolyte is about-25%, while the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and solvent are about-20% and + 10%, respectively. Under the condition that the price of electrolyte in the industry is adjusted faster than that of raw materials, the company's Q3 net profit is flat, mainly due to: 1) in terms of profit, the company has strong cost control ability and the net profit per ton of electrolyte is maintained at a high level. In the third quarter, the company's self-supply rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached about 95%, the self-supply rate of LiFSI reached more than 70%, and the core raw materials were produced to resist the risk of material price fluctuations. We estimate that the company's net profit per ton of electrolyte in the third quarter is about 13000 yuan per ton. 2) in terms of shipments, the growth rate of the company's shipments is higher than that of the industry, and the market share has further increased. We estimate that the company's Q3 electrolyte shipment is about 90,000 tons, about + 50% month-on-month, which is higher than the overall growth rate of the industry (about 48%).
The electrolyte has entered the loosening stage of supply and demand, and the company is expected to further expand its market share by virtue of its cost advantage. We expect that after the third quarter, with the gradual release of production capacity, the supply and demand pattern of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate will be gradually loosened, and the industry will usher in a round of clearance. The company has strong cost control ability (lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSI capacity continues to be released) and is deeply bound with major customers (Ningde accounts for about 50%, and 4680 battery electrolyte company is the main supplier). It is expected to further increase the market share in the trough period, and we expect the company's market share to increase to more than 40% in 2023.
The volume of multi-business is gradually increasing, and new business and new technologies open up room for long-term development. 1) in the battery recycling business, the company has partnered with a number of battery holders and is expected to start production in December to supplement the supply of lithium resources; 2) in the positive business, the shipment of iron phosphate 2022 amp is expected to reach 526,000 tons in 2023. Based on the price of 24000 / ton and the net profit of 4000 yuan per ton, 2022max is expected to contribute 126.2 billion yuan in revenue and 21.0 billion yuan in net profit in 2023. Lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 0.515 million tons in 2023, and is expected to increase on a large scale in 2024. 3) in terms of sodium hexafluorophosphate, the company already has 1000 tons of sodium hexafluorophosphate plant, and plans to build a new production capacity of 10,000 tons, which is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2024. 4) in terms of binder, the daily chemical production line of the company can be flexibly switched to the binder production line, and some products already have the capacity of mass production and delivery. It is estimated that it will have a production capacity of 50,000 tons in 2023, with a target sales of 400 million to 500 million yuan. New technology plus new business is expected to bring long-term growth momentum for the company, open up long-term development space, and continue to recommend.
Investment suggestion: the progress of capital reduction in the integration of the company is higher than expected, and we raise our profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 254.36, 339.95, and 43.411 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 129.34%, 33.65% and 27.70% over the same period last year. The net profit of returning to the mother is 5.694 billion yuan, 6.739 billion yuan and 8.189 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 157.83% 18.35% and 21.53% over the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is 2.96, 3.50 and 4.26 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to a PE of 14.98, 12.63, 10.40. First rating, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: increased competition in the industry and lower-than-expected downstream demand