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上海石化(600688):检修影响三季度盈利

Shanghai Petrochemical (600688): Overhaul affects third quarter profit

海通證券 ·  10/27/2022  · Researches

The loss widened in the third quarter. The company released its three-quarter report in 2022, with operating income of 57.779 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 6.60% from the same period last year, and net profit of-2.003 billion yuan, down 201.92% from the same period last year.

Of this total, the operating income in the third quarter was 11.878 billion yuan, down 51.96% from the same period last year and 40.29% from the previous quarter; the net profit returned to the home was-1.567 billion yuan, down 317.35% from the same period last year and 141.22% from the previous year.

We believe that the decline in profits in the third quarter was mainly affected by maintenance.

Affected by maintenance, the production and sales of products decreased. When the explosion accident occurred in the No. 1 ethylene glycol plant of the company on June 18, the company took protective parking measures on the main production equipment and carried out restorative maintenance on the equipment affected by the accident. The production and sales of the company's main products declined in the third quarter, of which the output of oil products was 726400 tons,-67% year-on-year,-33% month-on-month; sales volume was 720100 tons,-66% year-on-year,-34% month-on-month; ethylene output was 61000 tons,-69% year-on-year and-60% month-on-month.

The work of resuming work and production has been completed. The company is divided into three stages to promote the resumption of work and production in an orderly manner: in the first stage, the start-up of the main refinery unit is resumed, and five processing lines are arranged to cooperate with the start-up; in the second stage, the production capacity of chemical raw materials and plastic products is enhanced, and the construction of the old ethylene area line is arranged; in the third stage, the production capacity of the whole plant is fully restored and the new ethylene area line is arranged to start. As of September 30, 2022, the No. 2 ethylene glycol plant of the Chemical Department of the company has been started smoothly and produced qualified products, and the work of resuming work and production has been completed.

Active transformation and upgrading during the 14th five-year Plan period, the layout of carbon fiber, hydrogen energy and so on. In 2021, the company issued the outline of the 14th five-year Plan, defining the development ideas of "oil refining to chemical industry, chemical industry to materials, materials to high-end, and parks to ecology". The oxidation and carbonization production line of the 1500 t / a PAN-based carbon fiber second stage project was completed in May, the hydrogen fuel cell hydrogen supply center (the first stage) completed the commissioning by the end of December, 24,000t / an original filament, 120,000 t / a 48K large tow carbon fiber project, and the 250,000 t / a thermoplastic elastomer new material project built in cooperation with Baling Petrochemical has made steady progress.

Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the company's net profit in 2022-2024 is-1.85 billion yuan, 840 million yuan and 1.38 billion yuan respectively, the EPS is-0.17,0.08,0.13 yuan respectively, and the BPS in 2022 is 2.53 yuan. With reference to the valuation level of the comparable company, we give it 1.3-1.4 times PB in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 3.29-3.54 yuan, maintaining a "better than the market" rating.

Risk tips: the price of crude oil fluctuates sharply, the profit of oil products decreases, the price gap of petrochemical products narrows and so on.

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