Event: on the evening of October 24, the company released its third quarterly report for 2022.
The results in the third quarter were in line with expectations, with 2022Q3 revenue up 19.4% year-on-year; net profit increased 29.6% year-on-year; revenue reached 10.62 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, up 19.4% over the same period last year; and home net profit was 460 million yuan, an increase of 29.6% over the same period last year. 2022Q3 achieved revenue of 3.85 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 1.3% from the same period last year and 14.4% from the previous quarter, while the net profit from its parent was 160 million yuan, up 8.5% from the same period last year and down 10.2% from the previous year. Part of the industrial chain supply is tight, the third quarter of domestic wind power installation is not as expected, the company still maintains a steady development, in line with market expectations.
The profitability of 2022Q3 increased, and the expense rate decreased month-on-month during the Q3 quarter. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of sales in the first three quarters of 2022 were 18.2% and 4.3% respectively, up 3.69% and 1.39pct from the same period last year. Q3 single-quarter sales gross profit margin and net sales profit margin were 16.8% and 4.3% respectively, up 9.98% and 0.84pct from the same period last year, and down 2.85% and 1.16pct from the previous month. Under the background of the continuous decline in the bidding price of the fan, the company's profitability remains relatively stable. From the expense side, the expense rate of 2022Q3 during the single quarter is 11.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.23pct, mainly due to the decline in sales expense rate and R & D expense rate, and the remarkable effect of lean management.
The company has a strong number of orders on hand, and the new orders for 2022Q3 have increased by 24.7% compared with the previous month. From the perspective of large-scale orders, 2022Q3's new orders 2.62GW has increased by 24.7% compared with the previous month, and the pace of taking orders has been accelerated in the second half of the year. The cumulative 15.02GW orders in hand are sufficient, laying a solid foundation for subsequent performance growth.
Among them, 2-3MW (excluding) fan 0.45GW, accounting for 3% of 3-4MW (excluding) fan 2.73GW, accounting for 18% of 4-5MW fan 2.64GW, accounting for 18% of 5-6MW (excluding) fan 4.88GW, accounting for 32% of 6MW and above fan 4.33GW, accounting for 29%. The company's orders on hand are mainly 5MW and above, and the trend of large-scale fan is significant.
The offshore wind power business has achieved zero breakthrough, the "one main body and two wings" strategy continues to advance, and profitability is expected to continue to improve on August 30, 2022. The company successfully won the bid for Guodian Xiangshan offshore wind power Xiangshan offshore wind farm (phase II) factory wind turbine procurement project. The installed capacity of the project is 500,000 kW and the single machine capacity is 8MW-9MW. The winning bid marks a zero breakthrough in the offshore wind power market, and the company is expected to obtain high-profit sea breeze orders in Zhejiang, Liaoning and Shandong in the future. In addition, from July to October 2022, the company issued announcements one after another, investing 8.98,3.81 and 307 million yuan respectively in Jiuquan Mazongshan 150MW wind power project, Yiwu Namao Lake 70MW scenery co-factory project and Wuwei Tianzhu 50MW wind power project. Invest heavily in a number of projects to reflect the "one main body, two wings" strategy, which aims to bring long-term power generation revenue for the company and continue to improve profitability.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit in 2022-2024 is 6.6,7.6 and 870 million yuan respectively, an increase of 35%, 16% and 14% over the same period last year, corresponding to 16, 14 and 12 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the installation of wind power is not as expected; 2) the price of upstream parts is rising.