Event
On October 25, the company released its third-quarter earnings report for 2022.
Main points of investment
The results in the third quarter increased by 155%, and those in the third quarter increased by 19.3%. The company achieved operating income of 1.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 92% over the same period last year. The total net profit of the company was 189 million, a sharp increase of 155% over the same period last year. 2022Q3 realized operating income of 620 million yuan, an increase of 124% over the same period last year, an increase of 69% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, an increase of 193% over the same period last year, and an increase of 222% over the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2022, the gross profit margin of the company's main business was 31.7%, which decreased by about 8pct% compared with the same period last year. 2022Q3 gross profit margin was 31.7%, which decreased by about 9.6pct compared with the same period last year, and increased by 4.9pct compared with the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2022, the net interest rate of the company's main business was 14.2%, an increase of 3.8 pct over the same period last year; the net interest rate of single Q3 was 17.2%, an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year, with an increase of 7.9pct.
Tesla, Inc. significantly increased the long-term capacity planning of 4680 batteries, and the trend of industrialization and standardization of large cylinders accelerated on October 20. At Tesla, Inc. 's Q3 earnings meeting, Musk said that he would independently expand the capacity of 4680 batteries to 1000GWh/ in the future. At present, Tesla, Inc. 4680 battery output has tripled compared with Q2, with an output of more than 1000 battery packs per week, and the Texas factory in the United States has installed second-generation production equipment. The focus of the development of 4680 batteries in the future is to reduce costs and expand production in North America.
In the future, we hope to reduce the cost of 4680 to US $70 / kWh, which is about half of the current cost of domestic power batteries. Tesla, Inc. disclosed that although it still faces challenges, there is a detailed timetable for promoting it by 2026, and the trend of industrialization of large cylinders is accelerating.
With the accelerated landing of the battery shell business, the production efficiency of the new technology will be several times higher than that of the traditional way: according to the company announcement, the company has two production lines of 34 series aluminum cylindrical shells in the Hefei production base of Sixiang, Anhui Province. the products have been supplied in bulk by head battery enterprises and have been installed and used in passenger cars.
4680 large cylindrical shell: the main equipment of the large cylindrical steel shell production line is ready, and the connection work will be completed soon, and a small batch trial production will be carried out in the Xinxiang production base. At present, the single-line production speed of the large cylinder production line is temporarily 200 / min, and it is continuing to climb the slope.
Square shell endogenesis: the company is accelerating the R & D and design of square battery shell DWI technology, which is several times higher than the traditional square shell production efficiency. Laisheng base in Changzhou, as the company's main production base of square shell, is accelerating construction in the third quarter.
Square shell extension: 55% shares of Dongguan A Li subsidiary Changzhou and Sheng have been acquired, the optimization of A Li's original production line has been initially completed, and the production efficiency has doubled from the original 20 / min. In the follow-up, the transformation of all other equipment will be completed, and finally the self-designed square shell production line will be introduced, so as to improve the production efficiency several times.
The transformation of the new energy battery shell opens the second growth curve, and is optimistic that the company's new energy battery shell business has gradually changed from "shovel people" to "water sellers", and the company has transformed from a can equipment leader to a downstream battery structure, opening up several times the room for growth. The company cut into the field of battery shell by virtue of unique metal high-speed automatic precision forming (DWI) process, and its automatic production line has the advantages of high product consistency, strong safety, high precision and low material loss rate compared with the existing traditional punch stand-alone production mode. It can achieve a perfect combination of product quality and efficient production, and will greatly reduce cost and increase efficiency after mass production. According to the company's fifth phase of the employee stock ownership plan, its performance evaluation target for 2025 income is 13.6 billion yuan, a compound growth rate of 92% over the four-year compound growth rate of 2021.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.76 billion, an increase of 107%, 81%, 74%, and net profit of 2.4%, 360 million, an increase of 121%, 53%, 66%, corresponding to PE of 61-40-24. The company's new energy battery shell business is expected to break the existing competition pattern soon. The company's net profit will grow at a compound rate of 78% over the next three years, with a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the penetration of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; battery shell business is not as expected; demand for cans / lids has fallen sharply.
