Performance profile. 2022Q1~Q3 revenue fell 9.98 per cent to 671 million yuan, while net profit returned to its mother fell 77.95 per cent to 26.406 million yuan. According to the company's three-quarter report for 2022, 2022Q1~Q3 revenue fell by 9.98% to 671 million yuan, and net profit from home decreased by 77.95% to 26.406 million yuan. Of this total, 2022Q3 realized revenue of 274 million yuan, an increase of 30.59% over the same period last year, and realized net profit of 19.8933 million yuan, up 8.11% from the same period last year.
Benefiting from the pick-up in downstream demand, Q3 income growth is bright, Q4 income month-on-month can still be better. Since June, pig prices have risen above the industry breeding cost line and maintained a relatively high level of operation. The demand for animal protection products, especially animal chemical products, has significantly recovered, supporting the company's product sales to be significantly warmer than the previous month. It is estimated that the average profit of pig breeding head has been close to 1000 yuan since October, and the company's monthly product sales are expected to benefit from the high pig price and still show a continuous improvement compared with the previous month. In the follow-up, with the improvement of the financial situation of the breeding end and the further increase in demand for veterinary chemical drugs in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the income will be better than the previous quarter.
Factors such as product structure and capacity climbing affect profit performance in stages, and the profit level recovers steadily. ① gross profit end:
2022Q1~Q3 's gross profit margin was 20.46%, which decreased 10.67PCTs compared with the same period last year, of which Q3 gross profit margin returned to 22.25%, increased 4.06PCTs month-on-month, and decreased 3.59PCTs compared with the same period last year. The profit level has steadily recovered but has not yet risen to the level of the same period last year, which is mainly affected by two factors: ① increases with the profit level of downstream farming, sales of high-end products such as Tyvan are still in the process of recovery, and the proportion of Q3 high-margin products has not yet returned to the level of the same period last year; the production line of new preparations and raw materials put into production during the year of ② is still in the process of capacity climbing, and scale effect is still gradually reflected. On the expense side, the financial expenses have been increased due to the expense interest of convertible bonds. The 2022Q1~Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 4.92% 6.09% and 3.86%, 1.38%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 4.25%, 5.10%, 2.99% and 2.34%, respectively. Year-on-year-1.97/+0.48/-3.19/+2.63PCTs, taken together, the 2022Q1~Q3 net interest rate dropped to 3.93% (yoy-12.12PCTs), of which Q3 net interest rate returned to 7.25% (yoy-1.51PCTs). It is expected that with the optimization of product structure and capacity scale effect, profit is still on the track of orderly recovery.
The bibcock of comprehensive veterinary chemical medicine has considerable room for growth in the medium and long term. 1) the business layout is diversified: the company's business takes pig drugs as the core, and has been extended to other pharmaceutical fields, such as poultry, aquatic products, pets, ruminants, and so on. Through self-built raw material capacity, the integrated layout of macrolide products and raw material preparations has been gradually realized, and the product structure and profitability are expected to be continuously optimized. 2) perfect sales network coverage: through direct sales + distribution sales network to cover large-scale farms and small and medium-sized farmers, it is estimated that the proportion of direct sales revenue has reached 60%, and the penetration rate of major customers has maintained an increasing trend. Fully benefit from the increase in the proportion of scale farming; 3) R & D advantages are reflected in many aspects of new product R & D + production efficiency improvement:
Continuous R & D investment promoted the listing of new products and the improvement of production processes. In the first half of the year, Tedilol injection was successfully listed, while 11 pet health products for cats and dogs and two pet drugs were listed successively. The fermentation potency and batch average yield of 2022H1 typhanthin raw materials increased by 4.5% and 6.7% respectively compared with 2021, and the production efficiency was significantly improved. 4) the increase in market share can be expected: the trend of standardized management in the industry is clear, and the implementation of the new version of GMP in 2020 will promote the growth of demand for therapeutic chemicals and the increase of industry concentration, which will be beneficial to the sustainable growth of industry leaders in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast: we adjust the profit forecast according to the three quarterly reports. The estimated net profit of FY2022-2024 is 70.749 million yuan / 240 million yuan / 318 million yuan, with an increase of-46.75%, 239.35% and 32.30%, corresponding to PE 52.1X/15.3X/11.6X, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic outbreak in the aquaculture industry, the repeated epidemic situation of COVID-19, and the progress of production capacity construction is not as expected.