Event description: the company's total revenue of 2022Q1-3 was 761 million yuan, an increase of 26.45%, the net profit of return to the mother was 189 million yuan, an increase of 33.29%, and the net profit of non-return was 181 million yuan, an increase of 34.22%. Among them, the revenue of the company in the Q3 quarter was 237 million yuan, an increase of 17.34%; the net profit of return to the mother was 58 million yuan, an increase of 23.16%; and the net profit of non-return was 57 million yuan, an increase of 40.29%.
The price of the company's main product thionyl chloride has dropped, but the overall gross profit margin remains stable. The core raw materials of thionyl chloride are liquid chlorine and sulfur. the prices of the two raw materials began to rise at the end of 2021 and decreased in mid-2022. Affected by the cost side, the average price of thionyl chloride, one of the company's main products, was relatively high in the first half of 2022 and began to decline in the third quarter. The average price of Q3 was-31% month-on-month and-16% compared with the same period last year. It is currently in the lower quartile of historical prices, and revenue has declined slightly in a single quarter. It is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. In fact, the impact of price decline on gross profit margin is limited. The overall gross profit margin of company 2022 H1 and Q3 is 38.20% and 38.59% respectively, which is basically stable.
The aramid polymerization monomer benefits from the high magnificence of downstream aramid, and there is a tight balance between supply and demand in the long run. The company's 35,000 tons / year aramid polymerization monomer is currently the largest production capacity of this product in China. Due to the improvement of the prosperity of aramid, the main product downstream, many domestic enterprises are urged to plan and build new production capacity of aramid, which will directly drive the demand growth of aramid polymerization monomers. Considering that there is no new planned production capacity and high production technical barriers for aramid polymerization monomers, there is a tight balance between supply and demand in the long run. With the new production capacity of aramid polymer monomer put into production in the first half of the year, we speculate that this product has surpassed thionyl chloride to become the company's largest single product by revenue.
The volume of fund-raising projects is just around the corner, and the performance growth brought about by the new products is expected. Affected by the epidemic, the company's new 1000-ton / year PEKK project has been put into production and is expected to start gradually in the fourth quarter of 2022. The company uses one-step method to synthesize PEKK, which has a cost advantage over the two-step method, and can open up the suppressed downstream demand and expand the market by actively reducing the demand. On the basis of PEKK's good biocompatibility, the company's large-scale production + customization ability can effectively improve its added value and strengthen product competitiveness, and the performance growth brought about by the volume of new products can be expected in the future.
Investment suggestion: from 2022 to 2024, we expect the company to achieve operating income of 10.86,14.66 and 1.767 billion yuan, net profit of 3.00,4.53 and 594 million yuan, EPS of 0.71,1.08,1.41 yuan respectively, and the previous PE valuation of 41.6,27.6,21.0 respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; the expansion of new projects such as PEKK and chlorinated chemicals is not as expected; downstream demand is lower than expected.