Main points of investment: 1) integration of equipment consumables, new growth points of bioengineering and complex preparations in equipment business, and long-term growth of accelerated layout of consumables; 2) take advantage of COVID-19 's opportunity to accelerate going to sea, international business structure optimization, further open overseas space; 3) freeze dryer bibcock, "stand-alone, system, engineering" vertical development, to provide stable cash flow.
Pharmaceutical equipment leader, actively create consumables, CGT and other second growth curve. From the freeze-dryer family to get rich, "stand-alone, system, engineering" has become the absolute leader in the freeze-dryer field; at the same time, it has actively expanded horizontally to form an industrial layout with pharmaceutical equipment as the core (injections, APIs, bioengineering, solid preparations), medical technology (intervention in 2013) and food engineering (intervention in 2014). In recent years, through the active layout of consumables, the development of cell therapy and other new business, continue to create a second growth curve.
Equipment consumables integration, import replacement time. The acceleration of domestic substitution, the improvement of the weight of supply chain stability, consumables business, cell therapy and other medical technology plates can smooth the equipment cycle and provide long-term growth.
Pharmaceutical equipment: bioengineering, complex preparations to provide new growth points. 1) Bioengineering, the vigorous development of biopharmaceuticals leads to a strong demand for upstream bioengineering, which is expected to be 114.8 billion yuan in 25 years and CAGR23.71% in 2020-25. The company is the leader of the back end of bioengineering, constantly making breakthroughs in the front end, and the annual income of the preparation of raw liquid reached 223 million yuan and 907 million yuan respectively in 20-21 years, with a significant volume. 2) complex preparation, liquid dispensing system as an important equipment of complex preparation production process, the industry scale is expected to be 2.194 billion yuan in 25 years and CAGR18.70% in 2020-25. The company's high-end complex preparation dispensing system has entered the accelerated release stage, with orders for 2020, 2021 and 2022Q1 being 282 million, 429 million and 480 million respectively.
Medical technology: the accelerated distribution of consumables business provides long-term growth, and new businesses such as cell therapy are booming. 1) consumables business, upstream consumables (culture medium, chromatography media, filter components, disposable, etc.) market is expected to be 37.217 billion yuan in 25 years, CAGR 32.2% in 2020-25. The company accelerates its layout, improves its business model, and continues to benefit from strong demand downstream. 2) Cell therapy, cell therapy promotes the rapid development of downstream cell culture and equipment, which is estimated to be 11.4 billion yuan in 25 years and 23.93% CAGR in 20-25 years. The company actively arranges cell therapy equipment and cuts into the new blue sea of CGT. 21-22Q1 orders are 152 million and 179 million respectively.
Take advantage of COVID-19 's opportunity to speed up going to sea and optimize the international business structure. 1) Export products: previously, the products were mainly based on relatively mature freeze-drying systems and injection solutions. after COVID-19 's epidemic, the company's original liquid bioengineering equipment and consumables achieved a breakthrough in export in the past 2 years. Disposable materials through BPOG verification, access to the high-end biopharmaceutical supply chain stepping stone. 2) Export region: the company's overseas income mainly comes from Russia and India. COVID-19 has begun to enter the supply chain of developed countries with his strong product competitiveness since the epidemic. In February 2022, the company supplied liquid distribution system, filling system, light inspection and rear packaging equipment to the large CDMO Recipharm French plant.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company's income in 2022-24 is expected to be 5.562 billion yuan, 6.936 billion yuan and 8.634 billion yuan, an increase of 32.68%, 24.70% and 24.47% over the same period last year; and the net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.312 billion yuan and 1.648 billion yuan, up 25.69%, 26.07% and 25.65% over the same period last year. Considering that the company is a rare leader in the integration of equipment and consumables, there is a wide space for domestic substitution, and the superimposed overseas business further opens up the market space, taking a segment valuation of 2022 with a target market value of 32.7 billion yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the product volume is not as expected, the product export is not as expected, the capacity expansion is not as expected, the public data used in the research report may have the risk of lagging behind or not updating in time, and the industry scale measurement deviation risk.