This report is read as follows:
We believe that the company has obvious advantages as a chilled leading enterprise, and with the reversal of the yellow chicken cycle, the company's performance is expected to exceed expectations.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. We maintain the company's 2022-2024 EPS estimate of 1.31,2.12,2.28 yuan, and maintain the company's target price of 56.34 yuan.
Event: the company announced that 3.751 million live birds were sold in August 2022, with a sales income of 101 million yuan and an average sales price of 15.05 yuan / kg, with year-on-year changes of 30.18%, 82.40% and 39.33% respectively.
The production capacity is gradually eliminated, and the price of yellow chicken is booming. Demand side: with the rebound of pig prices in the 2022Q3 quarter and the pick-up support of seasonal consumer demand, the substitutability of yellow feather chicken has been enhanced, and the market demand of yellow feather chicken has improved. Supply side: this round of industry de-production is more thorough, the current supply contraction has been transmitted to the downstream, supply-side contraction on the price rise has formed an immediate effect, the current yellow feather chicken parents on behalf of chicken storage column is still low, we think that the price of yellow feather broiler is expected to continue to run at a high level. The supply gap opens, gradually releasing price elasticity, and the rebound in chicken prices is expected to enhance the company's profitability.
The company lays out the whole industry chain and optimizes the management model. The company uses advanced information technology to enhance the traditional production technology. Under the background of the income generated by the whole industry chain of the pig plate, the live poultry plate will also achieve standardized breeding, slaughtering cold chain, chilled direct production line layout, and greatly improve the cost. The company continues to optimize its business model, and has established a long-term strategic cooperation relationship with more than 60 merchants, forming a cold chain logistics distribution system and product sales network in large and medium-sized cities along the Yangtze River. Rich categories of poultry products, fine segmentation of poultry products, exquisite packaging of poultry products, accurate cold chain distribution system, greatly enhance the safety, hygiene and standardization of products, enhance the stickiness of consumers, and lay the foundation for the sustainable development of the company.
Risk hint: epidemic disease risk, product price fluctuation, raw material price fluctuation.