沙特将2023年的财政收入预期建立在国际油价维持在76美元/桶，这低于市场预期。
沙特财政部周五在初步预算声明中表示，其预计沙特明年的财政收入为1.12万亿里亚尔（2980亿美元），这高于先前估计的9680 亿里亚尔；预计预算盈余为90亿里亚尔，低于此前的估计。沙特财政部长在声明中表示，财政部「在预算中对石油和非石油收入的估计是基于保守的标准，以反映国内和全球经济可能出现的任何发展」。
根据投资银行Al Rajhi Capital的测算，沙特2023年财政收入中，石油收入可能达到7540亿里亚尔，非石油收入为4170亿里亚尔。这意味着沙特明年的财政预算收入可能是基于布伦特原油76美元/桶的假设。
根据以往经验，沙特在制定预算时，往往对原油价格采取相对保守的看法，并且不透露其假设。76美元/桶的假设显著低于市场分析师预计的94.63美元/桶，但与目前市场原油远期价格一致。
受对潜在经济衰退担忧的影响，国际油价三季度以来已累计下跌超20%，市场对全球能源需求持续低迷的担忧愈发强烈。美元的持续大涨也降低了以美元计价的大宗商品对投资者的吸引力。
瑞银认为，OPEC+至少需要削减50万桶/日的石油产量，才能遏制目前的下跌。摩根大通全球能源主管christan Malek则表示，OPEC+或有必要减产至多100万桶/日，以「遏制油价的下行势头」。
媒体此前报道，OPEC+将在10月5日的会议上讨论石油减产方案，以遏制近期油价暴跌，具体减产规模还在讨论中。俄罗斯方面正推动减产石油100万桶/日的方案。
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Saudi Arabia will base its revenue forecast for 2023 on the basis that international oil prices remain at 76 US dollars per barrel, which is lower than market expectations.
In a preliminary budget statement on Friday, the Saudi Ministry of Finance said it expected Saudi revenue of 1.12 trillion rials ($298 billion) next year, up from a previous estimate of 9680 billion rials, and a budget surplus of 9 billion rials, lower than previous estimates. The Saudi finance minister said in a statement that the Ministry of Finance's "budget estimates of oil and non-oil revenues are based on conservative criteria to reflect any possible developments in the domestic and global economy".
According to the calculation of investment bank Al Rajhi Capital, Saudi Arabia's oil revenue may reach 754 billion rials in 2023, while non-oil revenues may reach 417 billion rials. This means that Saudi Arabia's budget revenue for next year may be based on the assumption that Brent crude oil is $76 a barrel.
Based on past experience, when setting budgets, Saudi Arabia tends to take a relatively conservative view of crude oil prices and does not disclose its assumptions. The assumption of $76 / barrel is significantly lower than the $94.63 / barrel expected by market analysts, but in line with the current forward price of crude oil on the market.
Affected by concerns about a potential recession, international oil prices have fallen by more than 20% since the third quarter, and concerns about the continued downturn in global energy demand are growing. The continued surge in the dollar has also made dollar-denominated commodities less attractive to investors.
UBS believes OPEC+ needs to cut oil production by at least 500000 barrels a day to stem the current decline. Christan Malek, head of global energy at JPMorgan Chase & Co, said it might be necessary for OPEC+ to cut production by up to 1 million b / d to "curb the downward momentum of oil prices".
Media previously reported that OPEC+ will discuss oil production cuts at its meeting on October 5 in order to contain the recent collapse in oil prices, and the exact scale of the production cuts is still under discussion. Russia is pushing for a plan to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day.
