Summary (core point):
Both operating income and net profit increased. According to the company's annual report for 2021, the company achieved revenue of 23.972 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 15.89 percent over the same period last year, a net profit of 507 million yuan, an increase of 21.68 percent over the same period last year, and a deduction of 417 million yuan for non-net profit, an increase of 37.93 percent over the same period last year.
The growth of the industry is expected, and the investment track can be maintained. Under the background of the national carbon peak and carbon neutralization strategy, the wind energy industry will continue to grow at a high level in 2022. During the 14th five-year Plan period, we expect the average annual compound growth rate of wind power installation to exceed 13.5%, and the annual new installed capacity will be about 45-55GW. Due to the low base of offshore wind power installation and the unique advantages of sea breeze, the compound growth rate during the 14th five-year Plan period may be higher, and it is optimistically predicted that CAGR may exceed 58%, and the new installed capacity during the 14th five-year Plan period is expected to exceed 100GW.
The position of sea breeze is solid and there are plenty of orders on hand. In the ranking of new installed capacity of global wind power manufacturers in 2021, the data of newly installed 5.34GW of electric wind power ranks ninth in the world.
In 2021, the domestic wind power industry added new installed 47.57GW, and electric wind power ranked fifth in China. The installed capacity at sea has reached 4.1GW, ranking first in the world, with a domestic market share of 24%.
During the reporting period, the company added new orders 3010.9MW, accumulated in-hand orders 7945.5MW, in-hand orders are sufficient.
Profit forecast and valuation: we expect the net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be 573 million yuan, 653 million yuan and 751 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.43 yuan, 0.49 yuan and 0.56 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 22 times, 19.3 times and 16.8 times respectively. Based on the valuation analysis, the 12-month target price of electric and wind power is 14.07 yuan, with a "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
The risk of intensified competition in the industry, the risk of future business development, the risk that the epidemic leads to lower-than-expected business development, the risk that the overall asset-liability ratio is higher than that of comparable companies in the same industry, and the conclusion deviation caused by the failure of relevant assumptions.