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海创药业(688302)投资价值分析报告:良药济世 以氘代、PROTAC赋能研发的国际化BIOTECH

Haichuang Pharmaceutical (688302) Investment Value Analysis Report: Good Drugs Help the World with Deuterium Generation and PROTAC Empowers Research and Development through International Biotech

光大證券 ·  Sep 16, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Innovative, international biotech based on deuterium generation and PROTAC technology. Haichuang Pharmaceutical is an international innovative pharmaceutical company that aims to develop best-in-class and first-in-class drugs with significant clinical needs based on technology platforms such as deuterogenesis technology and PROTAC targeted protein degradation. 1) Based on the present, deuterium drug development guarantees the greatest possibility of success: the company's R&D team has the ability to continuously develop deuterated drugs and has a deep understanding of drug metabolism and deuteride characteristics. It can efficiently determine metabolic sensitive sites suitable for deuterium generation, and improve R&D efficiency and drug development success rate. Currently, 47 authorizations have been obtained to help achieve rapid, efficient, and low-cost synthesis of deuterated compounds. 2) Win in the future, PROTAC technology leads innovation at the source of new drugs: the company integrates biology, medicinal chemistry, computational chemistry and other disciplines to quickly evaluate the proteolytic activity of PROTAC compounds and design target compounds; combining pharmacology and pharmacokinetics to screen, optimize and develop potential high-quality PROTAC drugs. At present, a total of 9 invention patents have been applied for PROTAC related technology, of which 3 have been authorized, and 4 have been applied through PCT. Since applying for a patent for an invention requires disclosing the key indicators involved in the core technology, the formulation and process technology of some of the company's PROTAC drugs is protected in the form of technical secrets due to considerations of confidentiality of the core technical results.

New technologies and methods create a matrix of multi-cycle treatment products for prostate cancer. Building a multi-cycle treatment product matrix for prostate cancer: targeting the multi-stage progressive disease characteristics of prostate cancer, the company's in-depth layout: 1) enzalutamide deuteride drug HC-1119 (clinical phase III completed domestically; clinical phase III is being carried out abroad) to treat mCRPC; 2) PROTAC product HP518 (domestic clinical phase I) treats mCRPCs with AR point mutations, that is, drug-resistant prostate cancer; 3) HC-X029 and HC-X037 (preclinical) treat mCRPC with AR mutations at different locations, etc. This layout is in stark contrast to traditional domestic pharmaceutical companies involved in prostate cancer, and can effectively differentiate themselves in this potentially promising treatment market.

Develop safer hyperuricemia/gout drugs with new molecules and dosage forms. With changes in diet structure, the number of patients with metabolic diseases in China continues to rise. The current treatment regimen is mainly febustat and phenobromalone, and safety issues are prominent. The company's core product, HP501 (clinical phase II completed domestically), is a new URAT1 small molecule inhibitor developed independently. Its dosage form is a sustained-release tablet, so the risk of adverse effects such as kidney damage caused by excessive drug peak concentration can be avoided.

Profit forecasting, valuation and ratings: We expect the sales revenue of the company's main products from 2022 to 2024 to be 0,36/ 888 million yuan respectively; net profit of -407/ -4.62/100 million yuan respectively. According to the latest stock capital estimates, the corresponding EPS will be -4.11/ -4.67/ 1.01 yuan respectively. Using the absolute valuation of the company's pipeline as the main valuation reference, the company was given an overall valuation of 6.6 billion yuan, which was converted to a target price of 67 million yuan based on the latest share capital of 99 million shares.

First coverage, considering the company's huge potential technology platform and leading layout ideas, it was given a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations; risk of global operation; risk of increased competition; risk of sub-IPO stock price fluctuations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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