Event: the company released its semi-annual report of 2022, with an operating income of 2.537 billion yuan, + 0.94% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of 126 million yuan,-2.18%, and 87 million yuan, or-24.93%, respectively.
Comments:
Domestic sales have repeatedly been weak due to the epidemic, while export sales have maintained steady growth. From a business-by-business point of view, 2022H1's Stressles/IMG/Svane/ Qumei business realized revenue of 14.25, 399, 106, 619 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 20.98%, 22.99%, 3.72%, 32.70%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The Ekornes business of the company's mergers and acquisitions still achieved eye-catching growth under the influence of adverse factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and inflation in Europe and the United States, while the original Qumei business declined under pressure in the first half of the year due to adverse factors such as the Winter Olympic Games and repeated epidemics. Judging from the situation in a single quarter, 2022Q2 achieved revenue of 1.224 billion yuan, year-on-year-10.28%, return-to-mother net profit of 67 million yuan, year-on-year + 0.68%, deducted non-return net profit of 43 million yuan, year-on-year-35.59%.
Multi-factor disturbance, profitability under pressure decline. Affected by the pressure on the cost of raw materials, 2022H1's gross profit margin is from-7.13pcpts to 34.23% compared with the same period last year, and Q2's single-quarter gross profit margin is from Q1-2.79pcpts to 32.76%. In terms of expense rate, the company adjusts the rhythm of expenditure according to epidemic prevention and control so that the sales expense rate-5.87pcpts to 16.28%, the management and R & D expense rate + 0.99pcpts to 9.60%, and the financial expense rate-0.45pcpts to 3.55%. Comprehensive impact 2022H1 company net interest rate year-on-year-0.72pcpts to 4.98%, of which Q2 net interest rate is 5.53%, month-on-month Q1+1.07pcpts. With the gradual reduction of raw material costs and the gradual completion of financial cost savings, the company's profitability is still expected to be further improved.
Multi-channel optimization of domestic and export sales is expected to restore rapid growth in the future. (1) domestic sales of Qumei home business, the company continues to promote the dealer channel "three new marketing" and direct business development, major channels delayed delivery due to the epidemic, but the total order volume in the first half of the year increased by more than 100% compared with the same period last year. Centralized delivery is expected after the epidemic has eased in the second half of the year. (2) Ekornes global market business, orders for non-comfortable chair products are growing rapidly with the help of Stressless channels, and comfort chair products are expected to maintain steady growth under the background of weak consumption with the help of product upgrading, and there is still plenty of room for development in China.
Investment suggestion: the development of business integration is continuous and the performance flexibility is outstanding. The integration and development of the company's original Qumei business and Ekornes business continues, but in view of the pressure of the epidemic on the company's store opening and the real estate downside on the home industry, we downgrade the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit for 2022-2024 will be 3.37 billion yuan (the original forecast net profit for 202222 will be 4.89 / 631 million yuan), corresponding to the current market value PE of 14,000,000 and 8X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: uncertainty of real estate policy regulation, fluctuation of raw material prices, and intensified competition in the industry.