Main points of investment
22H1 revenue growth of Pudong Development Bank stabilized and bottomed out, interest spreads fell better than their peers, and non-performing loans continued to decline.
22H1's operating income increased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 0.3% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of home ownership increased by 1.1% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down by 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Roe (annualized) was 10.3%, down 0.4% (annualized) to 0.76%, which was the same as last year. At the end of 22Q2, the non-performing balance was 76 billion yuan, a decrease of 500 million yuan compared with the previous month; the non-performing rate was 1.56%, down 2bp; and the reserve coverage rate of non-performing loans was 158%, which increased 10pc.
Revenue growth stabilizes and bottoms out
22H1 revenue is + 1.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 0.3pc; net profit from home is + 1.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate of-2.6pc. Revenue growth stabilized, thanks to the rapid growth of other non-interest rates, slightly dragged down by interest spreads and fee income, and the month-on-month decline in homed net profit growth was mainly affected by impairment.
Specifically: (1) the scale growth remains stable. 22H1 interest-bearing assets (at the beginning and end of the period) + 3.4% year-on-year, the same as Q1. (2) the decline of interest rate spread is better than that of the same industry. 22Q2 single-quarter net interest margin 1.79%, month-on-month-4bp, year-on-year-5bp, the downward range is better than the joint-stock industry. (3) the income from handling fees is under pressure. The growth rate of 22H1 fees was-2.4pc to 0.1%. Mainly affected by the adjustment of the capital market, the decline in sales of funds and other high-yield products, in line with the general trend of the market. (4) other non-interest increases rapidly. 22H1's other non-interest income was + 1.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate of + 8.8%. Due to the decline in market interest rates, the value of transactional financial assets rose. (5) the impairment loss has increased. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Q2 is under pressure on asset quality, and the growth rate of impairment losses increased by 4.3pc to 0.8% month-on-month, dragging down profit growth. Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the recovery of demand, it is expected that the scale and interest margin can maintain a steady development trend, and revenue and profits are expected to stabilize and bottom out.
The decline in interest rate spreads is better than that of the same industry.
22H1 net interest margin 1.84%, compared with the beginning of the year + 1bp Q2 single-quarter net interest margin (beginning-end caliber) month-on-4bp, the decline is better than the joint-stock industry. Q2 quarterly return on interest-bearing assets-9bp, in line with the general trend of the market; interest-bearing debt cost ratio-4bp, significantly better than the industry, mainly due to the rising proportion of deposits and the downward cost of inter-industry debt.
22Q2 deposits are + 3.4% month-on-month, 2.7pc faster than interest-bearing liabilities; interbank liabilities are + 7.9% month-on-month. At the same time, the lack of effective demand in the Q2 market and the downward interest rate on interbank debt further push the cost of interest-bearing debt lower.
Non-performing loans continue to decline
At the end of 22Q2, the bad balance was 76 billion yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of-500 million yuan; the defect rate was 1.56%, with a month-on-month ratio of-5bp; it kept a double decline for the 10th consecutive quarter. The reserve coverage ratio of non-performing loans increased from + 10pc to 158%, returning to more than 150%. From the perspective of the industry, the main pressure points of asset quality are real estate and personal loans, the real estate bad rate is from + 112bp to 3.83% at the beginning of the year, and the personal loan bad rate is from + 14bp to 1.42% at the beginning of the year, which is in line with the industry trend. Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the introduction of real estate rescue policies and economic repair and improvement in household consumption, the risks of real estate and personal loans are expected to be alleviated, and asset quality is expected to continue to improve.
Profit forecast and valuation
Pudong Development Bank has gradually completed the bottom of its performance, and its net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to increase by 1.7%, 4.4% and 4.7%, corresponding to BPS20.25/21.57/22.95 yuan per share. The current price corresponds to the PB valuation of 0.36 pesks, 0.33 pounds, 0.31 times. Taking into account the epidemic and economic uncertainty, the target price is lowered to 10.13 yuan per share, corresponding to 2022 PB0.5 times, the current price space of 40%.
Non-performing loans continue to double decline risk hints: economic stall, non-performing outbreak.