This report is read as follows:
Market-oriented price increases, the first half of the year to enjoy a high boom in coking coal, performance greatly improved; benefit from coking coal prices, Q2 performance improved month-on-month; coal is still incremental, chemical & glass fiber business will continue to contribute to growth.
Main points of investment:
Lower the profit forecast and target price, and maintain the overweight rating. The company's 2022H1 achieved revenue of 19.99 billion (+ 54.1%) and net profit of 2.57 billion (+ 289.8%), slightly lower than expected. Due to the continuous downturn in the start-up of the real estate industry, it is difficult to continue to improve the demeanor of the coking coal scene in the second half of the year. Although the profit of the company's coking coal business is still growing, the growth rate is lower than our expectation, so the company's EPS in 2022 and 2023 is reduced to 1.57,1.67 (formerly 2.66,2.75) yuan. The forecast EPS in 2024 is 1.77 yuan. According to the industry average, the company will be given a 2022 6xPE, and the target price will be reduced to 9.42 yuan (formerly 11.38 yuan). Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Market-oriented price increases, the first half of the year to enjoy a high boom in coking coal, performance greatly improved. According to wind,22H1, the average price of Hebei main coking coal is 2753 yuan / ton, an increase of 1093 yuan over the same period last year, while the company's coking clean coal is fixed according to the annual long association quantity, monthly pricing, market adjustment model, timely adjust the price according to the market price change, the price adjustment mode is more flexible. Therefore, under the high boom of coking coal, the company's 22H1 coal business achieved revenue of 16.31 billion (+ 69.4%) and gross profit of 5.84 billion (+ 145.2%) increased by 3.46 billion compared with the same period last year, while the company's gross profit increased by 3.27 billion over the same period last year.
Benefit from coking coal prices, Q2 performance improved month-on-month. The company Q2 achieved a net profit of 1.59 billion (month-on-month ratio + 61.3%). The main reason for the performance improvement was that the average price of Hebei main coking coal Q2 was 3039 yuan / ton, up 581 yuan from the previous month, Q2 coal business revenue of 8.76 billion (month-on-month ratio + 15.6%), gross profit 3.22 billion (month-on-month ratio + 22.8%).
There is still an increase in coal, and the chemical & glass fiber business will continue to contribute to growth. According to the company's institutional research announcement:
1) Xingtai Mine West well Nuclear production capacity of 600000 tons, is expected to be put into production in September and October; 2) Inner Mongolia Shengxin Coal Industry increased production capacity by 300,000 tons, providing output increment; 3) the company's 400000 ton PVC project is expected to be completed in the second half of 2022 and carry out joint trial production; 4) the company's Jizhong New material Phase II project has been ignited in March 2022 and is expected to contribute increments in the second half of the year.
Risk hint. The production of iron and steel is reduced more than expected; the import of coal is liberalized; the macro-economy is lower than expected.