Event: according to the company's semi-annual report for 2022, 22H1 realized operating income of 2.053 billion yuan, up 2.25% from the same period last year; corresponding to 22Q2 realized operating income of 941 million yuan, down 15.84% from the same period last year and 15.35% from the previous year; net profit from home was 203 million yuan, up 0.81% from the same period last year; and net profit from 22Q2 was 76 million yuan, down 44.00% from the same period last year and 39.94% from the previous year Realized deduction of non-return net profit of 180 million yuan, down 4.87% from the same period last year; corresponding to 22Q2 realized deduction of non-return net profit of 70 million yuan, down 36.14% from the previous month.
The downstream demand of 22Q2 is sluggish and the company's sales are decreasing. During the reporting period, downstream lithium battery manufacturers were affected by the epidemic, the operating rate in April was damaged, and the demand was in the doldrums. According to the Battery Alliance data, 22M4, lithium battery production is only 29GWh, down 26% from the previous month-on-month decline of 22Q2, lithium battery production of a total of 106GWh, only 5% month-on-month increase compared with 22Q1. Due to the depressed demand downstream, the company's shipments decreased compared with the previous month. It is estimated that 22Q2 sold 8400 tons of copper foil products, a slight decline compared with 22Q1. It is expected that 22H2, with the rapid recovery of the demand side, downstream lithium battery enterprises actively reserve raw material inventory for the peak season of new energy vehicles, and the company's copper foil product sales are expected to rebound to achieve full production and full sales, with annual shipments expected to be 50,000 tons.
The imbalance between supply and demand causes the "stampede effect". During the reporting period, the copper foil supplier was limited by the production process, so it was difficult for the company to reduce the market supply by shutting down or reducing the negative; the stacking time of superimposed copper foil products was limited, and it was difficult for the company to maintain a high level of inventory for a long time. Therefore, under the background that the downstream demand is lower than expected, the phenomenon of "pricing and reducing inventory" appears, resulting in serious damage to the price of 22Q2 products. It is estimated that the unit price of 22Q2 copper foil products has dropped to about 99,000 yuan / ton, which is 17,000 yuan / ton lower than that of 22Q1, and the profitability has been seriously damaged.
In the future, as new energy vehicles usher in the peak sales season, supply and demand return to balance, superimposed from mid-July, copper prices rebounded slightly, downstream procurement willingness is high, and it is expected that the company's processing fees are expected to return to historical normal levels. the annual unit profit has been revised up to more than 1.0000 yuan / ton.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.45,0.61 and 0.78 yuan respectively, and the net profit of homing will maintain a compound growth rate of 50% in the next three years. Considering that the supply of copper foil will remain tight in the next two years, the scale advantage is expected to dilute the cost, further improve the net profit of the catalytic unit, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of industrial policy change; the risk of intensified competition in the industry and the decline of product processing fees; the risk of raw material price fluctuation.