The first half of '22 completed 49.9% of net profit deducted from non-return to the mother for the full year of '21. The company released an interim report that 22H1 achieved revenue of 7.32 billion yuan, reaching 53.5% of revenue in '21, or -19.0% compared to the previous year; achieved net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, or 47.9% of the net profit of the mother in '21, -25.1% compared with the previous year; achieved net profit of the non-homo mother of 1.27 billion yuan, and deducted 49.9% of the net profit of non-homo in '21, compared with -25.4% year on year. According to data from the China Automobile Association, 22H1 commercial vehicle sales were -41.1% compared to the same period last year. The company's revenue and performance were better than industry sales, and stability was good. Considering the resumption of production and work after the epidemic and the completion of the removal of national five inventories, it is estimated that the second half of the commercial vehicle industry may be better than the first half.
The share of proprietary profit in operating profit continues to rise. 22Q2 The company's net investment income was 3.7 billion yuan, accounting for 64.9% of operating profit, -32.8% year on year and -33.7% month on month. In 22Q2, the company achieved self-operating profit (operating profit - net income from changes in fair value - net income from investment) of 240 million yuan, -22.7% year-on-year, -13.1% month-on-month; self-operating profit accounted for 42.3% of operating profit, +7.7pct month-on-month.
The company is still well-funded. At the end of 22H1, monetary capital+accounts receivable financing+other current assets+transactional financial assets totaled 8.0.6 billion yuan, down 15.8% from the end of 21H1, but it is still quite abundant. The company's 22H1 short-term loans were 4.19 billion yuan, +246.1% year on year, mainly due to the increase in platform trading business loans. At the end of 22H1, the company's balance ratio was 37.7%, interest-bearing debt/total invested capital was 18.4%, and the long-term capital debt ratio was only 3.4%.
Profit forecasting and investment suggestions: The company has high product barriers, stable operations, and stable profits and dividends. The equity incentive plan will fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company's senior management and core personnel to make it more consistent with shareholders' interests. Considering the impact of non-recurring profit and loss, we expect the company's EPS for 22-24 to be 2.66/2.77/2.88 yuan/share, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 7.07/6.80/6.53 times, respectively. Combining the company's historical valuation and the PE valuation center of international parts companies in recent years, we gave the company 15 times PE in 22 years, with a reasonable value of 39.87 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The epidemic is repeated, the macroeconomy has fallen short of expectations, and the downstream boom has fallen short of expectations.