Refined from Guotai Junan Securities: "Special report on Blood products Industry-- stable demand and expected repair"
Although the overall terminal demand remained stable, since the second quarter of 2017, under the influence of the implementation of the industry two-vote system and human serum albumin "from shortage to balance", blood products industry enterprises have adjusted and cleaned up the channels. as a result, the financial data of some listed companies of blood products fluctuated greatly.
Guotai Junan believes that the current adjustment has gradually come to an end, and in the future, human serum albumin will gradually achieve mobile balance, the financial statements of listed companies will be gradually repaired, income growth will resume, and the cash flow situation will gradually improve.
Guotai Junan pointed out that there is still much room for expansion of serum albumin in our country.Compared with the major countries and regions in the world, the per capita albumin use in China is still at a low level, and there is still much room for expansion in the future. Although the proportion of drugs will be the main limiting factor for stock hospitals, the overall permeability of ① albumin is still low, and it is mainly concentrated in high-level hospitals in big cities, and hospitals at prefecture level and below still need to be developed. ② from the grass-roots survey, the current proportion of out-of-hospital channel sales is about 20%, and continues to maintain rapid growth. Judging that human serum albumin is expected to maintain a steady growth of 10% to 15%.
Jing C clinical promotion is expected to become a new bright spot.Jing C is rich in clinical indications, and some of them have been included in the national medical insurance, but due to the shortage of ① human serum albumin for a long time, the sales strategies of various companies have a "seesaw" effect. The clinical use of ② needs continuous academic promotion, and systematic clinical experience has not been formed at present. From the perspective of major countries and regions in the world, Jing C accounts for more than 50% of the overall market and about 25% in China. Guotai Junan believes that with the continuous deepening of clinical promotion, Jing C is expected to achieve a rapid growth of 15% to 20%.
Guotai Junan believes thatThe blood products industry has extremely high license barriers and relatively rigid terminal demand, relying on human serum albumin to gradually achieve dynamic sales balance, static C clinical promotion to drive rapid growth, factor products continue to be in short supply, the overall prosperity of the industry is expected to gradually recover, pay attention to Tiantan biology (600161.SH), Hualan biology (002007.SZ), Boya biology (300294.SZ).
