Summary
Yingli convertible bonds will be listed on Thursday, August 11, with a size of 340 million yuan. We think that according to the current market conditions, its listing position may be around 120 yuan.
Positive stock analysis
The company is deeply engaged in the consumer electronics industry, the main products are notebook computer structure modules and related precision moulds, through Lianbao, Compal and other notebook computer contract manufacturers to provide services to Unicom, Hewlett-Packard and other notebook computers. From 2019 to 2021, the revenue growth rate of the company slowed down, and the return net profit decreased. In 2021, the revenue / return net profit was 1.69 billion yuan (yoy+11.74%) / 64 million yuan (yoy-36.19%) respectively, mainly affected by exchange rate fluctuations, product life cycle changes, and rising R & D costs. We think the main points of the company are as follows:
1) the company's main business structure is stable, and structural modules account for more than 95% of the revenue. At present, it is mainly plastic structural parts. In recent years, in line with the trend of lightweight notebook computers and CNC integrated molding process, the revenue of metal structural parts has increased rapidly. This fund-raising project is used in the project of "annual output of 2 million pieces of PC full-milling metal precision structural parts".
2) as a part of the international division of labor in the notebook computer industry chain, the US dollar settlement sales income is relatively high, and the export income accounts for more than 95%, so the performance is greatly affected by the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate; in addition, the company currently enjoys export VAT preferential treatment. The change of the company's comprehensive gross profit margin is consistent with that of the structural module, which is due to the rise in the exchange rate of the US dollar against RMB and the plastic of the main raw materials affected by the rising price of crude oil, and the company has a certain risk of exchange rate fluctuations and changes in export tax policy; the current valuation of positive stocks is medium, the elasticity is general, and there is a certain upward momentum in the short term. The latest PE (TTM) of positive stocks is 39.51x, which is in the middle position in its own history and in the lower-middle level in similar enterprises. The latest total market value is 2.344 billion yuan, and the free circulation market value is 1.012 billion yuan. The dilution pressure of the current issue of convertible bonds on circulating equity is 31.01%. The period of lifting the ban is still a long way off. The volatility in the past 180 days is 43.10%. There is a certain upward momentum in the short term.
Terms and pricing
The scale of convertible bonds in this period is relatively small, the protection of debt bottom is weak, and the three major provisions remain in the mainstream form. The current convertible bond size is 340 million yuan, the initial conversion share price is 19.24 yuan, and the latest parity is about 92.31 yuan. The convertible bond has a maturity of 6 years, with a coupon rate of 0.40%, 0.60%, 1.20%, 1.80%, 2.50% and 3.00%, respectively, and the maturity redemption price is 115 yuan, the face value corresponding to YTM is 3.37%, and the debt bottom is about 74.66 yuan.
At the pricing level, we will pay attention to the recovery of consumer demand in the end market of notebook computers and the expansion of the company's integrated orders in CNC. The current valuation of positive stocks is medium, flexible in general, and has a certain upward momentum in the short term. The scale of convertible bonds in this period is relatively small, the protection of debt bottom is weak, and the three major provisions remain in the mainstream form. We believe that according to the current market conditions, its listing positioning may be around 120 yuan.
Risk.
Exchange rate fluctuation risk, tax policy change risk, convertible bond default risk, downstream demand is lower than expected.
