Purchase analysis:
1. The issuing scale of Huazheng convertible bonds is 570 million yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA+/AA-; the conversion share price is 39.09 yuan, and the conversion value is 95.32 yuan as of January 20, 2022; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.08 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 8%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds.
According to the discount rate of 3.55% maturity yield of 6-year AA+ bond enterprises on January 20, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 93.13 yuan, and the value of pure debt is higher. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 10.27%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 10.29%, there is a certain dilution pressure on the existing equity.
two。 As of January 20, 2022, the first three major shareholders of the company, Huali Group Co., Ltd., Xingsheng Securities Asset Management-Chen Guojian-Xingzheng Capital Management Division No. 89 single asset management plan, and the 413 combination of the National Social Security Fund held shares accounting for 40.07%, 4.00% and 3.17% of the total share capital respectively, and the controlling shareholders did not commit to priority allotment. It is predicted according to the new income and environment in the market at this stage. The size of the first day of placement is expected to be about 53%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 268 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1050 and 11.5 million, the rate of success is expected to be around 0.0023% and 0.0026%.
3. The company is in the industry of printed circuit board (Shenwan III). From the point of view of valuation, as of January 20, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 21.25 times, which is at a low level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 5.292 billion yuan, which is at a lower level in the same industry. As of January 20, 2022, the company's shares have fallen 10.84% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 3.65%, and Wandequan A has fallen 3.65%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 48.50%, and the stock is highly elastic. At present, the company has no risk of equity pledge. Other risk points: 1.
Market competition aggravates risks; 2. Tax preference risk; 3. The risk of change in the international political and economic environment; 4. Core customer income accounts for a relatively high risk; 5. Raw material price fluctuation risk; 6. Overseas business risk; 7. The risk of core staff loss, etc.
4. The scale of Huazheng convertible bonds is small, the debt bottom is well protected, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 30% premium, and the listing price is expected to be about 124 yuan. It is recommended to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.
