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Is the Energy Trade Over?

Is the Energy Trade Over?

能源交易结束了吗?
InvestorPlace ·  2022/08/13 04:34

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When a stock or a sector has a strong run, investors inevitably ask: Am I too late?

当一只股票或一个板块强劲上涨时,投资者不可避免地会问:我来晚了吗?

Energy stocks – especially old-school oil and natural gas stocks – have definitely enjoyed a strong run. The S&P Energy sector is up 40% so far this year, while the S&P 500 itself is down 11%.

能源类股--尤其是老派的石油和天然气类股--无疑表现强劲。标普能源板块向上今年到目前为止,40%,而标准普尔500指数本身降下来 11%.

The biggest three companies have been among the best performers, with Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) averaging 62% gains in 2022.

最大的三家公司一直是表现最好的公司之一,埃克森美孚公司(纽约证券交易所代码:XOM),雪佛龙公司(纽约证券交易所代码:CVX),以及康菲石油(纽约证券交易所代码:COP)2022年平均涨幅为62%。

Energy has been the place to make money in 2022, and we've done very well there.

能源一直是这个2022年是赚钱的地方,我们在那里做得非常好。

But oil prices are now off their peak. Gas prices average less than $4 a gallon for the first time since March (which is good news for inflation). And you can see in the chart above that oil stocks are also off their highs.

但油价现在已经脱离了峰值。汽油平均价格自3月份以来首次低于每加仑4美元(这对通胀来说是个好消息)。你可以在上面的图表中看到,石油库存也脱离了高点。

So, is the energy trade over? Have these stocks had their day in the sun?

那么,能源交易结束了吗?这些股票在阳光下度过了一天吗?

Not in my mind.

在我的脑海里没有。

If you're looking to invest in companies with strong earnings and sales, you should keep energy stocks on your radar…

如果你希望投资于收益和销售强劲的公司,你应该保持对能源类股的关注,…

Strong Fundamentals and Strong Momentum

基本面强、势头强

The truth is that crude oil prices will probably moderate even more in the upcoming months due to seasonality.

事实是,由于季节性因素,原油价格在未来几个月可能会进一步回落。

Every year, demand ebbs as we head into the nicer weather of fall, and energy prices dip as a result. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil decline to about $85 per barrel in September and October.

每年,随着我们进入更好的秋季天气,需求都会下降,能源价格也会随之下跌。如果油价在9月和10月跌至每桶85美元左右,我不会感到惊讶。

But here's the key: Even with oil at $85, many energy companies will remain profitable.

但关键是:即使油价为85美元,许多能源公司仍将保持盈利。

And then there is natural gas. Prices will likely remain persistently high given that Russia continues to play games in Europe. Russia has already stopped supplying gas to France, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, and the Netherlands, and it reduced supplies to Germany and Italy. European Union (EU) members have been advised to cut natural gas consumption "immediately," as the EU runs the risk of running out of natural gas to heat homes this winter.

然后是天然气。鉴于俄罗斯继续在欧洲玩游戏,价格可能会持续居高不下。俄罗斯已经停止向法国、波兰、保加利亚、芬兰、丹麦和荷兰供应天然气,并减少了对德国和意大利的供应。欧盟(EU)成员国被建议“立即”削减天然气消费量,因为欧盟面临着今冬家庭取暖所需天然气耗尽的风险。

With all those supply disruptions, natural gas prices should remain much higher than normal for the foreseeable future.

在所有这些供应中断的情况下,在可预见的未来,天然气价格应该会远远高于正常水平。

Add it all up and we can expect crude oil, natural gas, and other energy-related companies to continue achieving stunning earnings and sales results. We've already seen energy companies produce record results in the most recent quarter – and most have guided higher for the second half of the year.

综上所述,我们可以预期,原油、天然气和其他能源相关公司将继续取得令人震惊的收益和销售业绩。我们已经看到能源公司在最近一个季度创造了创纪录的业绩--而且大多数公司在今年下半年都走高了。

In fact, FactSet recently reported that analysts continue to increase their earnings estimates for the energy sector. The sector is now anticipated to report average earnings growth of a whopping 265.3% in the second quarter, up from previous estimates for 255.4%. The energy sector is also anticipated to report average second-quarter sales growth of 55.9%.

事实上,FactSet最近报告称,分析师继续上调对能源行业的收益预期。预计该行业第二季度的平均收益增幅将高达265.3%,高于此前预计的255.4%。能源行业预计也将公布第二季度销售额平均增长55.9%。

For these reasons, many energy stocks earn a high Fundamental Grade in my proprietary Portfolio Grader stock analysis system. This grade factors earnings and sales growth, analysts' estimates, margins, cash flow, and more. All are important to a stock's performance.

由于这些原因,许多能源类股赚得很高。基本职系在我专有的投资组合分级股票分析系统中。这一级别的因素包括盈利和销售增长、分析师的估计、利润率、现金流等。所有这些对一只股票的表现都很重要。

Many energy stocks earn an even higher Quantitative Grade right now. I call this grade my "secret sauce." It is my proprietary measure of institutional buying pressure. In other words, it tracks where the "smart money" is flowing. The more attractive a stock is to institutional investors, the better the stock will perform in the near term.

许多能源类股的收益甚至更高量化等级现在就来。我把这个分数叫做我的“秘方”。这是我衡量机构买入压力的专有指标。换句话说,它追踪“聪明的钱”流向哪里。一只股票对机构投资者的吸引力越大,该股在短期内的表现就越好。

As an example, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Conoco Phillips all earn an "A" Quantitative Grades right now:

例如,埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和康菲石油现在都获得了A级的量化分数:

I recommend one of those three in my Growth Investor service, in addition to other energy stocks. I go where the growth is, and we can find it in energy.

除了其他能源类股外,我还在我的Growth Investor服务中推荐这三只股票中的一只。我去哪里有增长,我们就能在能源领域找到它。

And when you add up everything we've talked about today, it should come as no surprise that I continue researching new energy opportunities to add to our Buy Lists. You might want to consider doing the same as we look ahead to a strong finish to the year.

当你把我们今天谈到的一切加在一起时,我继续研究新能源的机会来添加到我们的购买清单中,这也就不足为奇了。你可能会考虑做同样的事情,因为我们预计今年会有一个强劲的结束。

Sincerely,

真诚地


Louis Navellier, Market 360


路易斯·纳维利耶市场360

The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below:

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ConocoPhillips (COP)

康菲石油(扶贫委员会)

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