The leading company of poultry industry chain in Central China is in a leading position in the field of chilled poultry.
The company has been ploughing in the field of yellow feather chicken for 20 years, gradually covering the whole industry chain of breeding, slaughtering and sales, with revenue of 3.006 billion yuan (year-on-year + 37.26%) and net profit of 26 million yuan (- 85.28%) in 2021. The chilled business is the focus of the company's development, with a revenue of 1.826 billion yuan in 2021 (+ 15.04% compared with the same period last year).
The yellow feather chicken industry is in the stage of steady increase in demand and removal of production capacity, and the trend of chilling is obvious.
① demand side: Huang Yu chicken consumption is growing steadily, but there is still a lot of room for improvement. It is expected that the demand market will steadily expand in the future. ② supply side: recently, the stock of Chinese ancestral and parental breeder chickens showed a downward trend, the production capacity was eliminated obviously, the number of commercial broilers and chicken sales also declined one after another, and the market supply shrank. The market scale of ③ chilled yellow chicken in 2021 is estimated to be about 21.96 billion yuan, which has a broad development prospect in the future.
The four competitive advantages build a high wall and a deep base, driving the long-term and stable development of the company's business.
① supply chain advantages: the company covers the whole industry chain from production end to sales end, and the whole process of food quality control can be traced back. ② production advantage: the company makes great efforts to develop "company + base + farmers"
The model will help the company to expand its scale, reduce costs and increase efficiency. ③ channel advantages: the company is actively building Shang Chao channels, long-term cooperation with a large number of customers, forming a set of mature chilled products super marketing system. ④ logistics advantages: the company to establish a sound cold chain logistics distribution system, efficient and stable product supply, 2021 chilled sales network covering 28 provinces and cities.
Live poultry and chilled food business go hand in hand, the new business expands in an orderly manner, and the company can grow in the future.
For the existing business, on the one hand, the company has raised funds to expand the production capacity of yellow feather chickens; on the other hand, it has steadily expanded the chilled channels and expanded the coverage of the sales network. For new business, the company develops live pigs, commercial eggs, cooked food and prepared dishes in an orderly manner.
Investment advice: the company's live poultry business will usher in improvement, the chilled business is expected to continue the trend of rapid growth, commodity eggs and other main business to maintain steady growth. Taking all things into consideration, we expect the company to achieve revenue of 3.990x463max RMB 5.288m in 2022-2024, net profit of 1.180max RMB 246m, EPS of 1.15pm 1.77max 2.41RMB / share, corresponding PE of 33.4x/21.8x/16.0x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of chicken prices remaining low, the risk of not being as good as expected, and so on.