It's been a good week for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.6% to US$92.56. Revenues were CN¥206b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CN¥8.51, an impressive 49% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alibaba Group Holding after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Alibaba Group Holding
NYSE:BABA Earnings and Revenue Growth August 7th 2022
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Alibaba Group Holding from 48 analysts is for revenues of CN¥898.8b in 2023 which, if met, would be a credible 5.4% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 140% to CN¥35.90. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥923.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥35.56 in 2023. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
The average price target was steady at US$155even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alibaba Group Holding at US$230 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$115. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Alibaba Group Holding is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alibaba Group Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Alibaba Group Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$155, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Alibaba Group Holding analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alibaba Group Holding you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
這是很好的一週阿里巴巴-SW集團控股有限公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：阿里巴巴)股東，因為該公司剛剛發佈了最新的季度業績，該公司股價上漲3.6%，至92.56美元。營收為人民幣2060億加元，與分析師的預期大致一致，儘管法定每股收益(EPS)超出預期，達到人民幣8.51加元，比預期高出49%，令人印象深刻。盈利對投資者來説是一個重要的時刻，因為他們可以跟蹤一家公司的表現，看看分析師對明年的預測，以及對該公司的情緒是否發生了變化。讀者將很高興知道我們彙總了最新的法定預測，看看分析師們在最新業績公佈後是否改變了對阿里巴巴-SW集團的看法。
查看我們對阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的最新分析
紐約證券交易所：阿里巴巴收益和收入增長2022年8月7日
考慮到最新的業績，48位分析師對阿里巴巴-SW集團的最新共識是，2023年的收入將達到8988億元人民幣，如果實現這一目標，其過去12個月的銷售額將可信地增長5.4%。預計每股法定收益將飆升140%，至人民幣35.90元。在本報告發布前，分析師們一直在對2023年收入9231億加元和每股收益35.56加元進行建模。共識似乎更悲觀一些，在最新業績公佈後下調了營收預期，儘管其每股收益預期沒有變化。
儘管營收預期下降，但平均目標價穩定在155美元；這可能表明分析師對收益的估值更高。共識價格目標只是個別分析師目標的平均值，因此-看看基礎估計的範圍有多大可能很方便。目前，最樂觀的分析師對阿里巴巴-SW集團的估值為每股230美元，而最悲觀的分析師對其估值為115美元。即便如此，在估值相對接近的情況下，分析師們似乎對自己的估值相當有信心，這表明阿里巴巴-SW集團控股是一家很容易預測的企業，或者分析師們都在使用類似的假設。
當然，看待這些預測的另一種方式是將它們放在與行業本身相反的背景下。很明顯，人們預計阿里巴巴-SW集團的收入增長將大幅放緩，截至2023年底的收入預計將按年率計算增長7.2%。相比之下，過去五年的歷史增長率為29%。與該行業的其他公司(與分析師的預測)進行比較，這些公司的總收入預計每年將增長13%。考慮到增長放緩的預期，似乎很明顯，阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的增長速度預計也將低於其他行業參與者。
底線
最重要的是，市場情緒沒有發生重大變化，分析師們再次確認，該公司的表現與他們之前的每股收益預期一致。不利的一面是，他們還下調了營收預期，預測意味着營收表現將遜於整個行業。即便如此，盈利對企業的內在價值更為重要。共識價格目標持穩於155美元，最新估計不足以對他們的價格目標產生影響。
根據這一思路，我們認為，業務的長期前景比明年的收益更相關。我們有多位阿里巴巴-SW集團控股分析師對2025年的預測，你可以在我們的平臺上免費看到。
那麼風險呢？每家公司都有它們，我們已經發現阿里巴巴-SW集團控股的2個警示標誌你應該知道。
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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫，具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論，我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議，也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
