1H22 is under pressure on revenue and will continue to focus on school operation services and vocational education to release Kevin Education's 22-and-a-half annual report on August 2. 1H22 achieved revenue of 59.7664 million yuan, which was lower than 50% of our previous annual revenue forecast (290 million yuan). The main reason is that the change of the organizers of the two Kevin schools was completed later than we expected, resulting in the school operation service business only recognized a total of three months' income from April to June in the first half of the year; in addition, the epidemic also had a negative impact on the offline training business income and real estate leasing of quality education. Therefore, we have lowered our annual revenue forecast for 22 years by 35% to 188 million yuan, and simultaneously lowered our revenue forecast for 23-24 to reflect the impact of income changes in the forecast base period (22 years). Lower the BPS of 22-24 years to 3.80Universe 3.78 BPS (the previous value: 3.93). On the basis of the average 22EPB expected by the comparable company's Wind, taking into account the growth potential of quality education, vocational education and other businesses, Kevin Education is given a certain valuation premium, a double 22EPB, and a target price of 3.80 yuan (previous value: 4.56 yuan) to maintain the "hold" rating.
Completed the sponsor change, through the light asset model export education service company completed the change of the sponsor of two Kevin schools at the end of March 22, and from April to April through the provision of campus asset operation leasing, brand license, quality education courses, educational consulting services, stadium operation and catering and other services to achieve market-oriented income. At the same time, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Bohua Bilingual School in Fengxian District, Shanghai, to export many years of rich educational operation and management experience in K12 field to the light asset mode, with the company as the leading operator. to provide the school with a series of educational services, such as brand authorization, enrollment promotion, curriculum introduction, teacher recruitment and training, management system and system construction, international project certification and so on. 1H22 Kevin Education realized school operating service income of 47.0652 million yuan, accounting for 78.75% of the total revenue. We estimate that the revenue from this business is expected to reach 150 million yuan for the whole year.
Make use of high-quality production and education resources to steadily expand the business of vocational education
Relying on the resource advantage of Haidian state-owned assets, the company has actively deepened the integration of industry and education and school-enterprise cooperation, and a number of co-construction industrial college projects have been located in Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions. and signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Tencent Cloud and Kecheng Mathematical Science to create a new educational talent training model through the joint construction of industrial colleges, school-enterprise cooperation and professional co-construction. We believe that the above industry-education integration business model has the characteristics of light assets, replicability and expansibility, and is expected to become a new revenue growth point in the future.
Lower the target price to 3.80 yuan and maintain the "hold" rating
As the two Kevin schools completed the sponsor change later than we expected, the school operation service business began to recognize income from Q2, and superimposed the adverse impact of the epidemic on offline teaching and real estate rental business of quality education. we lowered our annual income forecast by 22% to 188 million yuan, and lowered BPS for 22-24 years to 3.8078 PB 3.89 yuan, with reference to comparable companies' average 22e 0.87 times PB. Taking into account the premium brought by the growth potential of the company's business, double the 22e PB and lower the target price to 3.80RMB (previous value:
4.56 yuan), maintain the "hold" rating.
Risk tips: the number of vocational education enrollment is not as expected; the epidemic repeatedly blocked offline teaching activities; teachers and core management personnel lack or loss risk; real estate rental rate is lower than expected.