Core ideas:
Event: the company issued a forecast for the first half of 2022, with an estimated first-half net profit of 155 million-170 million yuan, an increase of 99.08%-118.35% over the same period last year, and an increase of 101.42%-124.66% after deducting non-net profit of 130 million-145 million.
Lithium recycling support, the epidemic situation does not change the high growth trend; the reporting period continues to increase the code of lithium recycling.
In the second quarter, the company was affected by the epidemic, and the profit of lithium battery recycling business declined month-on-month; the equipment business also experienced delays in order delivery or project progress that did not meet expectations, resulting in a slight decline in the company's Q2 performance compared with the previous quarter, but thanks to the alleviation of the epidemic, the company accelerated the completion and commissioning of production expansion and technical renovation projects, promoting the rapid expansion of production capacity, and the overall performance of the company continued a high growth trend compared with the same period last year.
During the reporting period, the company continued to increase the lithium battery recycling business and improve the layout of the industry chain: recently signed the "Cooperation Agreement on Lithium Battery Recycling Strategy" with Haitong Hengxin, which will help the company to open up recycling channels for battery asset management service providers and further lock in lithium battery waste resources in this channel. It is proposed to transfer 10% equity of Qiantai Technology (Shenzhen Shantou) at a consideration of 54 million yuan, a national high-tech enterprise specializing in the scrapping and disassembly of new energy vehicles and the cascade utilization of power batteries, with the qualification of scrapped motor vehicle recycling and disassembly enterprises. The Qiantai Technology Industrial Park has been built with a flexible disassembly line of 40,000 scrapped vehicles per year, a flexible intelligent disassembly production line with an annual disassembly capacity of 30,000 tons of decommissioned power batteries, an intelligent production line of PACK with an annual production capacity of 20,000 sets of battery products, and a physical and environmental protection separation production line of scrapped power batteries with an annual disassembly capacity of 7200 tons.
The recovery of lithium electricity rises abruptly based on accumulated strength, and the production capacity enters the period of rapid release.
Tianqi Jintai Pavilion, a subsidiary of the company responsible for lithium recycling, produced 1887 gold tons of cobalt, 1024 gold tons of nickel, 436 gold tons of manganese and 1792 tons of lithium carbonate in 2021. The average metal recovery rate of cobalt, manganese and nickel is 98%, and the average recovery rate of lithium is 85%, ranking the leading level in the industry. It is estimated that with the gradual progress of production expansion and technological transformation, the overall capacity of the company's lithium battery recycling plate in 2022 will be 9000 gold tons of cobalt-manganese-nickel and 4000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 12000 gold tons of cobalt-manganese-nickel and 5000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2023. The company will build a new lithium iron phosphate recycling capacity of 150,000 tons / year in 2022, of which the first phase of the project will have a treatment scale of 50,000 tons / year, and Tianqi Jintai Pavilion will form a treatment capacity of 100000 tons of waste lithium batteries by 2023. The continuous expansion of the company's lithium recycling business will open up long-term growth space for the company.
The company is committed to building a "Internet + recycling" platform for waste lithium electricity, and establishes a nationwide waste lithium battery recycling service network by deeply binding battery enterprises, battery users, recycling enterprises and related financial, science and technology, service companies, etc. to provide raw material guarantee for lithium battery recycling business.
Recently, the company has signed cooperation agreements with FAW, JD.com, Xingheng Power supply, etc., and the construction of the platform is becoming more and more perfect, constantly empowering the lithium recovery channel.
Strategic layout of the whole life cycle of the automobile, coordinated development and comprehensive advantages are obvious that the company is committed to serving the whole life cycle of the automobile. In addition to the lithium recycling business, the intelligent equipment business and recycling equipment are deeply ploughing the automobile industry chain. It has a prominent position in automobile intelligent equipment, automobile lending, scrap equipment and other related fields, and has established a stable and close cooperative relationship with well-known automobile brands at home and abroad. Automotive industry resources will become an important boost to the company's lithium battery recycling business. The diversified coordination of the industrial chain will also enhance the company's comprehensive competitive advantage.
Valuation analysis and rating description
It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2022-2024 is 353 million yuan, 527 million yuan and 698 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 20 times, 14 times and 10 times respectively. Be optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the company's lithium battery recycling business and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk Tips:
The company's lithium battery recycling capacity releases the risk that it is less than expected, and the profitability of other businesses is not as good as expected.