Legend Michael Burry Warns of ‘Disinflation’ and Soaring Growth Stocks
Legend Michael Burry Warns of ‘Disinflation’ and Soaring Growth Stocks
InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips
InvestorPlace-股市新闻、股票建议和交易提示
If there's one person that every investor should listen to during a bear market, it's Michael Burry. When the esteemed hedge fund manager of Big Short fame speaks, I'm keen to listen. He correctly predicted the subprime mortgage market meltdown in 2008, after all.
如果说在熊市期间，每个投资者都应该听一个人的话，那就是 迈克尔·伯里。当这位受人尊敬的对冲基金经理时 大空头 名望说话，我很想听。毕竟，他正确地预测了2008年次级抵押贷款市场的崩溃。
He's a certified bear market genius. No one knows how to navigate turbulent markets better than him. And he just issued a shocking warning to his 875,000 Twitter followers about the current bear market. He warned that if you don't buy growth stocks now, you may miss a monster rally of epic proportions over the next six months!
他是一位经过认证的熊市天才。没有人比他更了解如何驾驭动荡的市场。他刚刚就当前的熊市向87.5万名Twitter粉丝发出了令人震惊的警告。 他警告说，如果你现在不买入成长型股票，你可能会错过未来六个月史诗般的巨幅涨势！
That's right. The bear market genius Burry himself is suddenly sounding a bullish tone.
没错。熊市天才伯里本人突然听起来很看涨。
So, what exactly did Burry say? How is it bullish for growth stocks? And is he right?
那么，Burry 到底说了什么？它如何看好成长型股？他说得对吗？
Let's take a deeper look.
让我们来更深入地看看。
The Tweet
这条推文
On June 27, Michael Burry sent the following tweet. It linked to an article about how retailers like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT) are very overstocked these days. In fact, they're contemplating paying you to just keep items you would otherwise return to the store.
6月27日，迈克尔·伯里发出了以下推文。它链接到一篇关于零售商喜欢的文章 沃尔玛（Walmart）（纽约证券交易所：WMT) 和 目标（纽约证券交易所：TGT) 现在库存非常积压。实际上，他们正在考虑付钱给你，让你只保留原本会退回商店的物品。
Burry is basically saying that the macroeconomic environment will do a complete 180 over the next six months.
伯里基本上是在说，宏观经济环境将在未来六个月内达到整整180个。
Over the past 18 months, supply shortages have coupled with the unleashing of pent-up consumer demand and pandemic-juiced savings accounts. This created a situation of super-low supply and super-high demand. We simply had too many dollars chasing too few goods. And consequently, inflation soared.
在过去的18个月中，供应短缺，加上被压抑的消费者需求的释放和大流行冲击的储蓄账户。这造成了超低供应和超高需求的局面。我们只是花了太多的钱去追太少的商品。因此，通货膨胀率飙升。
But according to Burry, all those dynamics are now reversing course.
但是根据伯里的说法，所有这些动态现在都在逆转方向。
Retailers incorrectly forecasted that 2021's pent-up consumer demand would persist into 2022. So, they over-ordered a bunch of products for those consumers to buy. That led to an over-ordering of supplies from manufacturers to make those products. And then that led to an over-ordering of raw resources from suppliers to make the supplies for those products.
零售商错误地预测2021年被压抑的消费者需求将持续到2022年。因此，他们超额订购了一大堆产品供这些消费者购买。这导致制造商超额订购供应品来生产这些产品。然后，这导致供应商超额订购原始资源来供应这些产品。
This is the "bullwhip effect" Burry is referring to. Like a bullwhip, a slight change on one end of the supply chain leads to exponentially larger changes further along. Here, an increased demand forecast led to bulk overordering at the manufacturer and supplier levels.
这是 Burry 所指的 “牛鞭效应”。就像牛鞭一样，供应链一端的微小变化会导致更大程度的变化。在这里，需求预测的增加导致制造商和供应商层面的批量超额订购。
The result is that even a small demand overestimation can create sizable supply gluts. The problem with the current situation, Burry says, is that every retailer overestimated demand. So, we have what amounts to a pretty big demand overestimation, and that's leading to an unprecedentedly large supply glut.
结果是，即使是很小的需求高估也可能产生可观的负面影响 供应过剩。伯里说，当前形势的问题在于每家零售商都高估了需求。因此，我们对需求的估计相当大，这导致了前所未有的大量供应过剩。
Retailers are now rushing to clear those supply gluts. That means deep discounts. But it'll happen against the backdrop of a consumer who is cutting back on discretionary spend due to recession fears. The result will be a round of deep price cuts on tons of items.
零售商现在正急于清除这些供应过剩。这意味着大幅折扣。但这将在消费者因担心衰退而削减可自由支配支出的背景下发生。结果将是对大量商品进行一轮大幅降价。
According to Burry, this will lead to disinflation in the back half of 2022. And this will in turn force the Fed to pause rate hikes and end quantitative tightening.
根据伯里的说法，这将导致 反通货膨胀 在 2022 年下半年。这反过来将迫使美联储暂停加息并结束量化紧缩政策。
In short, the past 18 months have seen too many dollars chasing too few goods, breakaway inflation, and higher rates. But Burry says the next six months will see too few dollars chasing too many goods, disinflation, and lower rates.
简而言之，在过去的18个月中，有太多的美元追逐太少的商品、突破性的通货膨胀和更高的利率。但伯里说，在接下来的六个月中，追逐太多商品的美元将太少，通货膨胀率将降低。
If true, then that means growth stocks are due for an epic rally in the back half of 2022.
如果属实，那么这意味着成长型股票将在2022年下半年出现史诗般的上涨。
Is It Time to Buy Growth Stocks?
是时候买入成长型股票了吗？
Burry is calling for disinflation and a dovish Fed policy pivot over the next six months. If he's right, growth stocks are set to soar.
伯里呼吁在未来六个月内实现反通货膨胀和鸽派的美联储政策转向。如果他是对的 成长型股票必将飙升。
When inflation is running hot, the Fed hikes rates to curtail economic demand to bring inflation down. When it's hiking rates, Treasury yields tend to rise to account for higher risk-free borrowing rates.
当通货膨胀升温时，美联储会加息以抑制经济需求，从而降低通货膨胀。在加息时，美国国债收益率往往会上升，以考虑更高的无风险借贷利率。
And when Treasury yields rise, growth stocks fall.
而当美国国债收益率上升时，成长型股票就会下跌。
This goes back to Valuation 101. A company's value is equal to the net present value of all its future cash flows, plus its current book value. For growth stocks, the bulk of the valuation is tied up in the net present value of future cash flows. And that goes down when Treasury yields go up. Therefore, when Treasury yields rise, growth stock valuations are disproportionately impacted.
这可以追溯到估值101。公司的价值等于其未来所有现金流的净现值加上其当前账面价值。对于成长型股票，大部分估值与未来现金流的净现值挂钩。当美国国债收益率上升时，这种情况就会下降。因此，当美国国债收益率上升时，成长型股票的估值会受到不成比例的影响。
This has been very true over the past 16 months. When yields were mostly flat throughout 2021, growth stocks traded sideways. But when yields started marching higher in late 2021, stocks began falling. Throughout all of 2022, yields have been soaring while growth stocks have been crashing.
在过去的16个月中，情况确实如此。当2021年收益率基本持平时，成长型股票横盘整理。但是，当收益率在2021年底开始走高时，股市开始下跌。在整个 2022 年，收益率一直在飙升，而成长型股票却暴跌。
If yields suddenly reverse course and start crashing, it reasons that growth stocks will start soaring.
如果收益率突然逆转并开始暴跌，则说明成长型股票将开始飙升。
If Burry is right, that's exactly what will happen.
如果 Burry 是对的，那正是会发生的事情。
Disinflation will force the Fed to either pause rate hikes or even cut rates. And that will lead to a sharp decline in Treasury yields that will spark a huge rally in growth stocks.
反通货膨胀将迫使美联储要么暂停加息，要么甚至降息。这将导致美国国债收益率急剧下降，这将引发 成长型股票大幅上涨。
Fortunately for growth stock bulls, we think Burry is 100% right.
对于成长型股票多头来说，幸运的是， 我们认为 Burry 百分之百正确。
Why Michael Burry Is Right
为什么迈克尔·伯里是对的
The bulk of evidence today suggests that the bear market king is right yet again: Disinflation is on the way.
今天的大部分证据表明，熊市之王又是对的： 反通货膨胀即将到来。
Walmart. Target. Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). Gap (NYSE:GPS). American Eagle (NYSE:AEO). Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq:URBN). All those retail giants reported quarterly numbers over the past two months. All said they have too much inventory and that they need to clear it.
沃尔玛。目标。 百思买 （纽约证券交易所：BBY)。 差距 （纽约证券交易所：全球定位系统)。 美国之鹰 （纽约证券交易所：AEO)。 都市服装 （纳斯达克：URBN)。所有这些零售巨头都报告了过去两个月的季度数据。所有人都说他们的库存太多了，他们需要清理库存。
On a conference call with analysts, Urban Outfitters CEO Richard Hayne said:
在与分析师的电话会议上，Urban Outfitters首席执行官理查德·海恩说：
"There is a surplus of inventory… across the board at retail right now."
“目前，零售业的库存全面过剩。”
This surplus is clear in the data. Retailers Inventories dropped well below "trend" during 2020. But they started to rebuild in 2021, and now they're back to their trendline in mid-2022. Yet consumer confidence has plunged to record lows, and gas prices have soared to more than $5 a gallon.
这种盈余在数据中显而易见。2020年，零售商库存下降幅度远低于 “趋势”。但是他们在2021年开始重建，现在他们在2022年年中又回到了趋势线。然而，消费者信心已跌至历史新低，天然气价格已飙升至每加仑5美元以上。
In other words, we're rapidly shifting to a "too few dollars chasing too many goods" environment.
换句话说，我们正在迅速转向 “美元太少追逐太多商品” 的环境。
The result? Inflation will turn into disinflation. Rate hikes will become rate cuts. Spiking Treasury yields will plunge. And crashing growth stocks will soar.
结果如何？通货膨胀将变成反通货膨胀。加息将变成降息。美国国债收益率飙升将暴跌。而且 暴跌的成长型股票将飙升。
The Final Word on Growth Stocks
关于成长型股票的最终决定
When it comes to making money in bear markets, there is no one like Michael Burry. He is the king of turning bear markets into generational money-making opportunities.
说到在熊市中赚钱，没有人能像迈克尔·伯里一样。他是将熊市转化为世代赚钱机会之王。
Right now, he's calling for disinflation and a dovish Fed policy pivot over the next 6 months. If he's right — and we think he will be proven right yet again — then growth stocks are due for an enormous, face-melting rally into the end of the year.
目前，他呼吁在未来6个月内实现反通货膨胀和鸽派的美联储政策转向。如果他是对的——我们认为他将再次被证明是对的——那么成长型股票将在今年年底出现大幅的、令人面目一新的涨势。
We have the perfect stock for that rally.
我们有最适合那次涨势的股票。
For a moment, imagine the dream growth stock.
想象一下梦想中的成长股。
You're probably thinking of a sub-$5 stock that practically no one has heard of. Maybe it's run by some of the most talented people in the world that have developed a breakthrough, patented technology. And it has the potential to transform a multi-trillion-dollar industry.
你可能想的是一种几乎没人听说过的低于5美元的股票。也许它是由世界上一些最有才华的人经营的，他们开发了突破性的专利技术。而且它有可能改变一个价值数万亿美元的行业。
Maybe the stock has more than 10X upside potential. Maybe the tech has already been validated by big-time customers in real-world use cases. And maybe the company even has a potential tie-in with a major firm, like Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL).
也许该股的上涨潜力超过10倍。也许这项技术已经在现实用例中得到了大型客户的验证。也许该公司甚至有可能与一家大公司合作，比如 苹果 （纳斯达克：AAPL)。
Well, guess what? That stock exists…
好吧，你猜怎么了？那只股票存在...
And I'll tell you all about it.
我会把所有事情都告诉大家。
The post Legend Michael Burry Warns of 'Disinflation' and Soaring Growth Stocks appeared first on InvestorPlace.
传奇人物迈克尔·伯里警告 “反通货膨胀” 和成长型股票飙升的帖子首次出现在InvestorPlace上。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。