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This time, Iron Man Musk may really be sanctioned by Captain America.

The US Securities Regulatory Commission (SEC) said on Thursday that it would sue Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk, accusing him of securities fraud when he put forward a plan to privatize Tesla, Inc. in August. Musk made "a series of false and misleading statements" in the potential deal to privatize Tesla, Inc..

If the CSRC's charges against Musk stand, Musk may be greeted not only by a huge fine, but also by losing Tesla, Inc. 's chairman, CEO title, and even being banned from holding real positions in any listed company.

More importantly, Musk could face jail if the SEC's next formal charges involve criminal charges, according to Harvey Pitt, the former chairman of the SEC. As soon as the news came out,Tesla, Inc. 's share price fell all the way in after-hours trading, closing down 11.91%:

Market screenshot source: Futu Niuniu APP

This is naturally not good news for Tesla, Inc. 's investors, not only for Musk's grievances, but also for conspiracy theories to attack SEC. But this "Captain America" is no joke. The 23-page lawsuit shows that SEC this timeWill not "give up."：

At this point, did Musk really take the pill? What kind of future will Tesla, Inc. face?

Where will Tesla, Inc. go without Iron Man?

First of all, in retrospect, "Iron Man" Musk violated which law of heaven, causing "Captain America" to move seriously. Of course, the culprit is the Twitter on August 7. Musk, who is deeply affected by the ups and downs of the stock price, said on personal Twitter that he is considering privatizing Tesla, Inc. at a share price of US $420, and the funds are already in place:

Subsequently, Musk responded to investors who questioned him for manipulating the share price, saying that the issue of privatization was working with Silver Lake Capital and Goldman Sachs Group, and that the privatization funds came from Saudi Arabia, but was immediately hit in the face by the parties concerned. Said he was not involved in Tesla, Inc. 's privatization deal.

As a result, SEC began to investigate Musk's operation, and although Musk later issued an open letter on Tesla, Inc. 's official website saying that he had abandoned privatization, it was too late, and SEC's inquiry letters arrived one after another and began legal proceedings.

As the investigation deepened, SEC law enforcement even found that Musk proposed the price of $420 based on a 20% premium to the share price at the time, and then adjusted it to $420, because of the importance of the number in marijuana culture and his belief that his girlfriend would be amused by it. I have to say that the billionaire is really crazy.

So how serious is the charge this time?From a legal point of view, this is a very serious accusation, because this time the SEC charges Musk under Section 10b-5 of the Trading Act, which is usually used by the SEC to track the behavior of insider traders and market manipulators.

In fact, Musk could have bowed his head and admitted his mistake and spent money to avoid disaster. According to people familiar with the matter, SEC had drafted a settlement agreement with Musk, which was approved by the SEC committee, but when SEC prepared to submit the settlement agreement on Thursday morning, Musk's lawyer called SEC lawyer in San Francisco and said they were no longer interested in moving forward with the agreement.

In this way, a complaint appeared in front of everyone, listing nine lawsuits, such as never contacting investors, never contacting shareholders, and never hiring relevant consultants.

There is no doubt that Musk is the core management and soul of Tesla, Inc.. So when SEC decides to sue formally, investors must worry about where Tesla, Inc., who lacks Iron Man, will go in the future.

Assuming that the charge is finally convicted, where will Tesla, Inc. 's business go wrong first? It could be a capacity plan for Model 3, followed by a series of knock-on effects.

We all know that Tesla, Inc. has been facing insufficient production capacity and poor financial situation in the past, which is the reason why Wall Street continues to downgrade the company. The Model 3 is at a critical time for capacity climbing, and the model determines whether the company can really turn a profit.

Production of the Model 3 in focus rose to 28578 in the second quarter of this year, up from 9766 in the first quarter. The rapid growth of production and sales brought about economies of scale, which increased the company's overall gross margin by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month. At the subsequent results meeting, Musk excitedly told analysts that Model production reached 5000 units several times in three weeks in the second quarter, and that as production capacity continued to climb, the gross profit margin of Model 3 was expected to reach 15% in the third quarter and 20% in the fourth quarter, which would enable the company to achieve positive cash flow and positive profit in the third and fourth quarters. Tesla, Inc. will become a truly mass-market carmaker. In the above expectations, the market also began to believe that Tesla, Inc. 's victory is not far away.

But behind the capacity increase, Musk co-ordinated all the company's efforts this year, including directing production lines, mobilizing key production positions to advance Model 3 production plans, and even sleeping on the factory floor to personally monitor progress. So suppose Musk was recently removed from his management position by SEC and the original manager is gone, then the production of Model 3 is likely to be disrupted, which will make the company's upcoming profits a long way off again. Even investors who are followers of Iron Man (Tesla, Inc. has lost Iron Man by then) will still have patience, and will the bears show mercy? It must be an abyss to greet Tesla, Inc..

This is the market's reaction to the potential consequences of Mr Musk's departure from management.

In addition to the production capacity of Model 3, Musk's departure will also have a great impact on Tesla, Inc. 's financing capacity. Musk is an entrepreneur with strong personal color, full of dreams and passion. From Xspace to Tesla, Inc., Musk continues to prove his great business talent and charisma. Many industry leaders agree that Tesla, Inc. 's success is almost due to Iron Man, so he is willing to invest money to help Tesla, Inc. tide over the difficulties in many times of crisis.

Musk said in an emailed statement that he was saddened and disappointed by SEC's action and that integrity was the most important value in his life, but historically, as long as SEC formally initiated charges related to insider trading and market manipulation, the percentage of charges was as high as 90%.

In other words, if Musk is basically "cool" this time according to the lawsuit request of SEC, I am afraid that Tesla, Inc. will not be able to keep his CEO position, and the urgent task now is of course to find a reliable successor for Tesla, Inc..

Gillon: the soul of Model 3 promoted by one hand

As a talented entrepreneur who thinks highly of himself, it is obviously not realistic for Musk to cede the Tesla, Inc. empire he built up to outsiders, so Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook Inc, who is widely spread in the market, and even executives of other automobile companies, such as Ford and Nissan, can basically be excluded.

Judging from a series of major personnel changes recently announced by Tesla, Inc., the person most likely to replace Tesla, Inc. after he lost Mr Musk is Jerome Guillen, who was promoted to head of automotive operations by Mr Musk in September.

On Sept. 10, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk announced a new round of organizational restructuring for 2018, involving seven executives, most of whom are additions to departures, but there is a relatively eye-catching personnel transfer: Jilun, a veteran of Tesla, Inc. for eight years, became president of Tesla, Inc. 's automobile business, reporting directly to Musk.

Gillen, 45, was a Daimler executive who was later poached by Musk to run the Model S project. After that, he served as vice president in charge of sales and service, and has been Musk's right-hand man.

In Tesla, Inc., Gillen is said to be the task manager who can accurately predict the completion date of the project. He was deeply trusted by Musk and successfully solved some of the production problems encountered in Tesla, Inc. 's early manufacturing and delivery of Model S, and he also expanded Tesla, Inc. 's service department internationally.

On the other hand, Gyron also played an important role in the production of the Model 3, a key product of Tesla, Inc. 's transformation into a Volkswagen electric car maker. Before he was in charge of the project, Tesla, Inc. had been unable to meet consumer demand for vehicles, and the production plan was always behind schedule.

Musk commented on the soul of Model 3: "he played a key role in driving Model 3 production, leading the team to achieve what almost everyone thought impossible: the creation of a large final assembly line for Model 3 in a matter of weeks."

Musk in such a critical time, promoted such a capable subordinate, as the head of Tesla, Inc. 's core department, is there any deep meaning behind it? Perhaps Musk had a premonition that he had paved the way for his Tesla, Inc. empire.

Shottwell:SpaceXThe secret weapon behind it

Another potential replacement for Musk is Gwynne Shotwell, 54, chief operating officer of SpaceX:

Since the establishment of SpaceX in 2002, the 54-year-old engineer has been working with Musk for a long time.Longer than any other Musk executive.. She manages about 6000 SpaceX employees and translates her boss's long-term ideas into a sustainable business, whether selling rockets to clients or telling them not to read Musk's tweets too much.

Under her leadership, SpaceX became the first private company to send satellites to the Earth Space Station and one of the most highly valued private companies in the world (valued at about $28 billion). Her favorite thing in her work is to set new standards, including a number of milestones, such as "landing first-stage thrusters on unmanned spacecraft and on the ground, relaunching rockets, launching the most powerful Falcon heavy rocket currently in service."

Another big advantage of Schottwell is gender. Jeff Cohn, a partner at Elevate Partners, has previously said that women are better suited to work with Musk: "when you deal with self-conscious people like Elon, women's strengths in empathy and EQ are very important. "

At present, Musk has left the entire SpaceX to Schottwell to manage day-to-day operations, which is a sign of Musk's trust in her. Although the rocket business is more predictable than Tesla, Inc. and there is less pressure on investors as a privately held industry, SpaceX's achievements so far are obvious to all, and this is obviously not due to the gimmicks created by Musk's Twitter.

In the wake of the rapid development of Musk's Twitter incident, Ms Schottwell also came forward to make supportive remarks, saying at an industry conference in Paris that Mr Musk was "still as awake and capable as ever". And called on "people not to pay too much attention to trifles." "

Of course, Musk is no longer facing a "trivial matter". Can the woman, praised by Bloomberg as "the secret weapon behind SpaceX", survive the crisis for Musk?

The end.

Buffett's golden partner Charlie Munger commented on Musk, who was not so well-known at that time, as early as in 2014: "it is no exaggeration to say that I think Elon Musk is a genius." one of the boldest people of all time, but what worries me is that he probably thinks he has an IQ of 250 with an IQ of 190. This will bring him a lot of risk. "

Now it seems that four years ago, this sentence came to fruition, and the genius Musk may soon have to pay for his cleverness, and without his Tesla, Inc., it is not clear whether he can tide over the difficulties under the leadership of his deputy. Of course, a wave of sharp falls brought about by investor sentiment is inevitable.

But don't panic, can't you still play without Huang Guangyu's Gome?

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