RBC Capital Updates Ratings On Homebuilders & Building Products Sector As Housing Demand Declines
RBC Capital Updates Ratings On Homebuilders & Building Products Sector As Housing Demand Declines
RBC Capital更新對住房建築商和建築產品行業的評級，住房需求下降
- RBC Capital analyst Mike Dahl further reduces estimates and price targets for Homebuilders & Building Products companies as housing demand declines.
- The analyst expects further deterioration after the most recent jump in rates (+50 bps past 2 weeks and +270 bps YTD).
- Dahl mentions that he has been clear about caution across space, remains wary, and sees no urgency to catch a falling knife given the rapidly changing environment and downside risks.
- Though the most recent leg lower in the stocks and signs of greater capitulation from investors/sell-side may at least help better balance risk/reward, he added.
- For Homebuilders, the analyst believes the actual downside scenario (triggered by lower home prices or a prolonged recession) would be more severe, and multiples are likely to remain depressed to reflect this.
- Dahl says it's still premature to talk about major impairments and believes there is some risk of option write-offs, whereas owned land is still "in the money" even if it produces lower margins vs. the current peak mid-20s to 30% range.
- For Building Products, Dahl expects falling builder orders and existing home sales to pressure building product companies with a lag. Perhaps extended vs. normal given the long project backlogs though there's also the risk that de-stocking could driver quicker impacts, he added.
- PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform, and the price target was lowered to $41 (an upside of 7%) from $56 to better reflect the housing slowdown setting in and downside risks to demand/margins.
- Taylor Morrison Home Corp (NYSE:TMHC) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform and reduced the price target to $28 (an upside of 30%) from $32.
- Jeld-Wen Holding Inc (NYSE:JELD) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform. The analyst reduced the price target to $12 (a downside of 10%) from $20, reflecting a decline in earnings outlook and valuation multiple.
- Installed Building Products Inc (NYSE:IBP) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform, and the price target lowered to $71 from $91.
- Summit Materials Inc (NYSE:SUM) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform, while the price target was lowered to $31 (an upside of 32%) from $33.
- Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. (NASDAQ:BECN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform, and the price target was lowered to $58 (an upside of 21%) from $70.
- GMS Inc (NYSE:GMS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform, and the price target was lowered to $46 (an upside of 18%) from $73.
- SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc (NYSE:SITE) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform, while the price target was lowered to $118 (an upside of 5%) from $128.
- Price Action: PHM shares are trading higher by 2.82% at $38.21, TMHC +3.12% at $21.45, JELD +1.83% at $13.37, IBP lower by 7.23% at $71.23, SUM +1.29% at $23.50, BECN -3.99% at $47.83, GMS -2.06% at $39.05 and SITE +0.22% at $112.48 on the last check Wednesday.
- 加拿大皇家銀行資本隨着住房需求下降，分析師Mike Dahl進一步下調了對HomeBuilders&Building Products公司的預期和價格目標。
- 這位分析師預計，在最近一次利率躍升(過去兩週+50個基點和年初以來+270個基點)之後，情況將進一步惡化。
- Dahl提到，他已經明確了在太空中保持謹慎，仍然保持警惕，考慮到快速變化的環境和下行風險，他認為沒有抓住墜落的刀的緊迫性。
- 儘管最近股市走低，以及投資者/賣方更大投降的跡象，至少可能有助於更好地平衡風險/回報，他補充道。
- 對於住房建設者來説分析師認為，實際的下行情景(由房價下跌或長期衰退引發)將更加嚴重，市盈率可能會保持低迷以反映這一點。
- 達爾表示，現在談論重大減值還為時過早，並認為存在一些期權沖銷的風險，而擁有的土地即使產生較低的利潤率，與目前25%至30%的峯值區間相比，仍是“有錢的”。
- 對於建築產品，Dahl預計，不斷下降的建築商訂單和現房銷售將給建築產品公司帶來滯後壓力。他補充説，考慮到長時間的項目積壓，也許是延長了對正常情況的影響，儘管也存在減少庫存可能導致更快影響的風險。
- PulteGroup，Inc.(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：PHM)評級從強於大盤下調至板塊表現，目標價從56美元下調至41美元(上漲7%)，以更好地反映房地產市場放緩以及需求/利潤率面臨的下行風險。
- 泰勒·莫里森家居公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：TMHC)從板塊表現上調至強於大盤，並將目標價從32美元下調至28美元(上漲30%)。
- 傑爾德-文控股公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：JELD)從行業表現下調至表現不佳。這位分析師將目標價從20美元下調至12美元(下行10%)，反映出盈利預期和估值倍數的下降。
- 安裝式建築產品公司(紐約證券交易所代碼：IBP)將評級從行業表現下調至表現不佳，目標價從91美元下調至71美元。
- 頂峯材料公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：SUM)從板塊表現上調至強於大盤，目標價從33美元下調至31美元(上漲32%)。
- Beacon屋頂供應公司。納斯達克(Sequoia Capital：BECN)將評級從強於大盤下調至板塊表現，目標價從70美元下調至58美元(上漲21%)。
- 通用汽車公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：GMS)評級從強於大盤下調至板塊表現，目標價從73美元下調至46美元(上漲18%)。
- SiteOne景觀供應公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼：SITE)從表現不佳上調至板塊表現，目標價從128美元下調至118美元(上漲5%)。
- 價格行動：在週三的最後一次交易中，PHM股價上漲2.82%，至38.21美元，TMHC+3.12%，至21.45美元，JELD+1.83%，至13.37美元，IBP下跌7.23%，至71.23美元，SUM+1.29%，至23.5美元，BECN-3.99%，至47.83美元，GMS-2.06%，至39.05美元，Site+0.22%，至112.48美元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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