Five EV Stocks to Sell Before the Fed Kills Them
Five EV Stocks to Sell Before the Fed Kills Them
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InvestorPlace-股票市場新聞、股票建議和交易提示
Reports of electric van maker Electric Last Mile Solutions' (Nasdaq:ELMS) bankruptcy filing on Sunday flew under the market news radar.
關於電動貨車製造商的報道電子最後一英里解決方案(納斯達克：榆樹)週日申請破產的消息沒有引起市場的注意。
Electric Last Mile came public via a SPAC in 2021 amid a wave of other EV startups. At the time, it was pitched to investors as one of the best pure-plays on commercial fleet electrification. Today, it's headed for the graveyard.
2021年，在一波其他電動汽車初創企業的浪潮中，電動最後一英里通過SPAC上市。當時，它被投資者定位為商業機隊電氣化方面最好的純遊戲之一。今天，它正走向墓地。
To us, this story is a canary in the coal mine for EV stocks.
對我們來說，這個故事是一個煤礦裡的金絲雀對於電動汽車股票。
While the EV industry is due for huge growth over the next decade, it's also due for major consolidation. There are simply too many EV makers out there today. And only about 5% of them will make it in the long run. The other 95% will go bankrupt.
儘管電動汽車行業將在未來十年實現巨大增長，但它也將進行重大整合。今天的電動汽車製造商實在太多了。從長遠來看，他們中只有5%的人能成功。其餘95%的公司將破產。
Electric Last Mile Solutions may be the first. It most certainly won't be the last.
電動最後一英里解決方案可能是第一個。這肯定不會是最後一次。
We always thought this consolidation would take several years to play out. But the Fed is accelerating that timeline. Its aggressive rate-hiking path is rapidly increasing the cost of capital in the U.S. economy. And that's making it largely impossible for a lot of these cash-burning EV startups to raise funds.
我們一直認為，這種整合需要幾年時間才能完成。但美聯儲正在加快這一時間表。其激進的加息路徑正在迅速增加美國經濟中的資金成本。這使得許多這些燒錢的電動汽車初創公司基本上不可能籌集資金。
The result? Over the next 12 months, we expect to see a lot of these startups file for bankruptcy. And a lot of EV stocks will go to zero.
結果是什麼呢？在接下來的12個月裡，我們預計會看到很多這樣的初創企業申請破產。許多電動汽車的庫存將降至零。
At the same time, we anticipate this consolidation to help certain strong companies and send those high-quality EV stocks soaring!
與此同時，我們預計這一整合將幫助某些實力雄厚的公司和讓那些高品質的電動汽車股大漲！
So… which ones are you holding in your portfolio right now — the ticking time bombs set to hit zero any day, or the next Teslas (Nasdaq:TSLA)?
所以…你現在的投資組合中有哪些呢？定時炸彈隨時都會落到零，還是明天？特斯拉S(納斯達克：特斯拉)?
The Great EV Industry Consolidation
電動汽車產業大整合
We're about to witness a great consolidation in the EV space over the next 12 months. Dozens of EV stocks will head to zero. And those that survive will end up soaring as they hog all the industry growth.
在接下來的12個月裡，我們將見證電動汽車領域的一次巨大整合。數十家電動汽車公司的股票將跌至零。而那些倖存下來的公司最終將飆升，因為它們分享了所有行業的增長。
This thesis is rooted in historical precedent.
這一論斷植根於歷史先例。
Let's rewind to the dawn of the gas-powered car.
讓我們回到汽油動力汽車的黎明。
Bicycle mechanics J. Frank and Charles Duryea of Springfield, Massachusetts designed the first successful American gasoline automobile in 1893. Six years later, in 1899, 30 American manufacturers collectively produced 2,500 of these cars.
1893年，馬薩諸塞州斯普林菲爾德的自行車技師J.Frank和Charles Duryea設計了第一輛成功的美國汽油汽車。六年後，也就是1899年，30家美國制造商總共生產了2500輛這種汽車。
And that was just the beginning.
而這僅僅是個開始。
Over the next decade, some 485 companies entered the automobile manufacturing business. All were hoping to strike it rich as the gas-powered car redefined the world of transportation. It was a "gas-powered car boom" — much like the "electric vehicle boom" of today.
在接下來的十年裡，一些人485家公司進入汽車製造行業。所有人都希望發財致富，因為這款汽油動力汽車重新定義了交通世界。那是一場“汽油動力汽車熱潮”--很像今天的“電動汽車熱潮”。
We all know what happened next.
我們都知道接下來發生了什麼。
This innovation did go on to redefine the world. Today, around 70 million new passenger cars are sold every single year.
這一創新確實重新定義了世界。如今，每年大約售出7000萬輛新乘用車。
But almost none of those 485 companies that popped up back in the early 1900s became a success story.
但幾乎是無在20世紀初湧現的485家公司中，有一家後來取得了成功。
Less than 50 of them were still in operation by 1930. And just three accounted for 80% of the market.
到1930年，仍在運營的不到50家。僅三家公司就佔據了80%的市場份額。
Though gas-powered cars did take over, 9 of every 10 car companies that emerged didn't survive to see that success. And less than 1 in 100 turned into auto industry titans.
儘管汽油動力汽車確實佔據了主導地位，但每10家新出現的汽車公司中，就有9家未能倖免於難。只有不到1/100的人成為了汽車業巨頭。
The EV Revolution will play out similarly.
電動汽車革命也將以同樣的方式上演。
Startups Will Shut Down
初創企業將被關閉
Today, there are hundreds of EV makers in the world, all hoping to strike it rich as EVs redefine transportation.
今天，世界上有數百家電動汽車製造商，都希望隨著電動汽車重新定義交通運輸而致富。
EVs will do just that over the next twenty years, just as gas-powered cars did in the early 1900s.
電動汽車將要在接下來的20年裡，就會這樣做，就像20世紀初汽油動力汽車所做的那樣。
And similarly, the EV boom of the 2020s and '30s will see just a few top players that differentiate themselves in terms of major value-add, whether it be cost, design, performance, or branding. Those movers will attract all the consumer demand and reap all the rewards of the EV Revolution. And they'll squeeze out the other 90% of companies in the industry.
同樣，在本世紀20年代和30年代的電動汽車熱潮中，只會有幾家頂級企業在主要附加值方面脫穎而出，無論是成本、設計、性能還是品牌。這些企業將吸引所有消費者需求，並從電動汽車革命中獲得所有回報。它們將排擠行業中其他90%的公司。
So, when I look at the landscape today, I see a graveyard with a few shining stars.
所以，當我看著今天的風景時，我看到了有幾顆閃閃發光的星星的墓地。
The key to striking gold in this revolution, then, is to find those shining stars. And avoid the companies doomed for what will soon be a crowded EV graveyard.
因此，在這場革命中大獲成功的關鍵是找到那些閃閃發光的明星。避開那些即將成為擁擠的電動汽車墓地的公司。
Five EV Stocks to Sell Now
現在出售五隻電動汽車股票
I've long been expecting this industry consolidation. However, I've also thought it would happen gradually over the next five years.
我早就期待著這一行業整合。然而，我也認為這將在未來五年內逐步發生。
The Fed has changed the timeline here. Rates are on a rapid ascent, and the cost of capital is surging. It increasingly appears that industry consolidation will happen very quickly over the next 12 months. In that stretch, I expect dozens of EV stocks to plunge to zero.
美聯儲已經改變了這裡的時間表。利率正在快速上升，資金成本也在飆升。越來越多的跡象表明，行業整合將在未來12個月內非常迅速地發生。在此期間，我預計數十隻電動汽車股票將暴跌至零。
Among those I expect to fail are:
我預計失敗的公司包括：
- Ayro (Nasdaq:AYRO): This tiny company making small, low-speed EVs for niche-use cases looks like all talk and no walk. It has just $44 million in cash on the balance sheet against a trailing 12-month burn rate of $30 million. So, it needs some big commercial wins soon to stave off bankruptcy. We doubt that will happen.
- Arcimoto (Nasdaq:FUV): I love the idea of tiny, 3-wheeled EVs. But I don't think this is the company that's going to execute that vision. And if they do, it will require so much more capital that shareholders will get diluted to near-zero. Arcimoto has just $5 million in cash on the balance sheet, and cash burn was $15 million last quarter. Ouch!
- Workhorse (Nasdaq:WKHS): Ever since this electric van maker lost the USPS contract — after first losing a UPS (NYSE:UPS) contract — we've been convinced that the tech platform here is pretty poor. Bad technology just won't cut it in the hypercompetitive electric van market. That's especially true with just $167 million in cash against a quarterly burn rate of $35 million. Not a great situation.
- Lordstown Motors (Nasdaq:RIDE): We were never convinced that this company – lacking talent and resources – would compete pound-for-pound making electric trucks with Tesla (market leader), Rivian (Nasdaq:RIVN) (backed by Amazon), and Ford (NYSE:F) (the legacy truck leader). Now the pressure is on. The company has just $300 million in cash on the balance sheet with a quarterly burn rate of $80 million. Bankruptcy looks very likely here.
- Romeo Power (NYSE:RMO): Once upon a time, Romeo looked like one of the most promising battery R&D startups in the EV industry. But the company has lost a lot of talent over the past two years. And when you're a startup, talent is everything. Without it, Romeo Power has lost its way and its technical edge. And given it's burning cash ($47 million burn last quarter) with limited resources ($67 million), bankruptcy is a real possibility.
- 艾羅(納斯達克：艾羅)：這家為小眾用戶生產小型低速電動汽車的小公司看起來只會說話，不會走路。它的資產負債表上只有4400萬美元的現金，而過去12個月的燒損率為3000萬美元。因此，它需要儘快取得一些重大的商業勝利，以避免破產。我們懷疑這種情況是否會發生。
- Arcimoto(納斯達克：FUV)：我喜歡微型三輪電動汽車的想法。但我不認為這是一家要實現這一願景的公司。如果他們這樣做了，它將需要如此多的資本，以至於股東將被稀釋到接近於零的水準。Arcimoto的資產負債表上只有500萬美元的現金，上個季度的現金消耗為1500萬美元。唉喲!
- 主力馬(納斯達克：WKHS)：自從這家電動麵包車製造商失去了USPS合同-在第一次失去UPS(紐約證券交易所：UPS)合同-我們一直相信這裡的技術平臺相當差。在競爭異常激烈的電動麵包車市場，糟糕的技術根本無法解決問題。在只有1.67億美元現金的情況下，情況尤其如此，而季度燒錄率為3500萬美元。情況不是很好。
- 洛德斯敦 馬達(納斯達克：騎我們從來不相信這家缺乏人才和資源的公司會與特斯拉(市場領先者)競爭電動卡車。Rivian(納斯達克：RIVN)(由亞馬遜支持)，以及福特(紐約證券交易所：F)(傳統的卡車領導者)。現在壓力來了。該公司的資產負債表上只有3億美元的現金，季度燒失率為8000萬美元。現在看來，破產的可能性很大。
- 羅密歐 電源(紐約證券交易所：RMO曾幾何時，羅密歐看起來像是電動汽車行業最有前途的電池研發初創公司之一。但在過去的兩年裡，該公司失去了大量人才。當你是一家初創公司時，人才就是一切。沒有它，羅密歐動力就失去了方向和技術優勢。考慮到它在資源有限(6700萬美元)的情況下燒錢(上個季度燒掉了4700萬美元)，破產是一種真實的可能性。
The Final Word on EV Stocks
關於電動汽車股票的最後一句話
A great consolidation is coming to the EV industry. That's bad news for low-quality EV stocks. They're doomed to fall to zero.
電動汽車行業即將迎來一場偉大的整合。這對低質量的電動汽車股票來說是個壞消息。他們註定要跌到零。
But it's also great news for high-quality EV stocks.
但對於高質量的電動汽車股票來說，這也是個好消息。
Investor confidence will grow stronger as the industry purges all the unsubstantiated, all-hype startups. And the companies left after this elimination will have less competition and will likely grow faster, with better profit margins.
隨著該行業清除所有未經證實的、完全是炒作的初創企業，投資者的信心將會增強。而這次淘汰後留下的公司將面臨更少的競爭，可能會增長得更快，利潤率更高。
The result? In the post-consolidation era, high-quality EV stocks will have bigger sales, bigger earnings, bigger multiples, and much higher prices.
結果是什麼呢？在後整合時代，高質量的電動汽車股票將擁有更大的銷售額、更高的收益、更高的本益比和更高的價格。
The time to buy those future winners is now — before this consolidation pushes them higher!
買入這些未來的贏家的時機是現在-在這一整合將它們推高之前！
Find out which high-quality EV stocks are in our crosshairs. And get the name and ticker symbol of one penny EV battery stock that looks like a huge long-term champion.
找出哪些高質量的電動汽車股票是我們的目標。並獲得一便士電動汽車電池股票的名稱和股票代碼，看起來像是一個巨大的長期冠軍。
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
截至發稿之日，盧克·蘭戈並未(直接或間接)持有本文所述證券的任何頭寸。
The post Five EV Stocks to Sell Before the Fed Kills Them appeared first on InvestorPlace.
在美聯儲扼殺電動汽車股票之前出售的五隻電動汽車股票首先出現在InvestorPlace上。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。