Key points of investment:
Helin Weina is located in the upper reaches of the MEMS and semiconductor industry chain and specializes in MEMS fine components and semiconductor test probes.
The MEMS microelectronic components series products mainly include fine shielding covers, fine connectors and components, and precision structural parts, which are used in MEMS devices such as microphones, pressure, optics, etc. Semiconductor chip test probe products are important consumables in semiconductor packaging and inspection, and have continued to grow since sales were formed in 2018. In 2021, a dual business pattern was formed.
Helin Weina serves the world's leading customers, with the top five customers accounting for more than 70%. The main customers of fine shielding masks are Goertek Co., Ltd. and STMicroelectronics, and Linweina have a 20% share of the MEMS microphone market; major customers for precision structural components include Lowe's Electronics and Adno. Semiconductor test probe customers include many chip and testing giants such as Nvidia.
Over the next 5 years, the market size of MEMS devices will maintain a 6.5% increase in CAGR, with MEMS microphones, pressure sensors, etc. being the main types. MEMS devices can generally be divided into MEMS actuators and MEMS sensors. Among them, MEMS sensors account for about 70% of the market. The main categories include RF MEMS, microphones, pressure sensors, etc. According to Yole's data, the global MEMS market was about $13.4 billion in 2021. Driven by emerging applications, the market size will reach $18.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.5%. In 2020-2026, the MEMS microphone market will increase from $1.38 billion to $1.87 billion; the optical MEMS sensor market will increase from $5.3 billion to $920 million; and the barometric sensor market will increase from $1.77 billion to $2.36 billion.
The localization rate of semiconductor chip test probe series products is low, and Lin Weina is currently gaining prominence in the field, with a market share of about 1%. Testing in the semiconductor chip production process can be divided into design verification, WAT, CP testing, and FT testing. Semiconductor probes are the core components that connect wafers/chips to test equipment for signal transmission, and play an important role in the quality control of semiconductor products. MEMS process wafer test probes are widely used in high-end wafer testing, and sales of the global MEMS probe card market will increase from US$1,451 million to US$2.13 billion in 2020-2026. Helin Weina Semiconductor's FT test probe products have been successfully recognized by leading chip and testing customers such as Nvidia. In 2022, the company accelerated the horizontal deployment of MEMS probes and substrate-level probes to strengthen the company's semiconductor probe category and competitiveness.
First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. In 2022-2024, Lin Weina's revenue forecast was 527/739/1,005 million yuan respectively, and the net profit forecast attributable to the owner of the parent company was 157/212/290 million, respectively.
The current market capitalization of 5 billion yuan corresponds to PE 32X. Referring to the current comparable company average PE of 48.4X, there is room for increase in Lin Weina's valuation by about 51%, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The expansion of new MEMS component products fell short of expectations. 2) The expansion of new semiconductor probe products fell short of expectations. 3) Risk of fluctuations in the semiconductor industry chain.