Autonomous engine electronic control system leader, the development strategy is clear. The company's products are automobile engine management system, motorcycle engine management system and so on. Customer strategy: deep ploughing commercial vehicles, focusing on the expansion of passenger vehicles, the layout of new energy. Product strategy: expand from engine management system to MCU (motor controller), VCU (vehicle controller), GCU (generator controller). Technology strategy: expand the ancillary functions of EMS, focusing on the T-box products with positioning, program upgrade, remote OBD diagnosis, remote emission monitoring and other functions combined with OTA and EMS or electronic control system.
Engine Management system (EMS) products have high technical barriers, and the company is in the lead in technology. EMS is the most variable and difficult control system in the automobile electronic control system, which has been monopolized by multinational manufacturers such as Bosch in Germany, mainland Germany, Denso in Japan and Delphi for a long time. The company has focused its research and development on advanced EMS control technology and hybrid electric control system control strategy for a long time. Focus on the research and development of engine management system, Atkinson engine management system, BSG motor controller, power shunt control strategy, incremental electric vehicle control strategy, hybrid electric vehicle OBD control strategy, automatic start and stop control strategy, braking energy recovery strategy and other engine efficient, electrified, hybrid control technology, which makes a good technical reserve for the future electric vehicle.
With the outbreak of demand for new energy products, the company's hybrid system is highly competitive and is expected to fully benefit. Pure tram power electronic control system and hybrid vehicle power electronic control system are the development trend of automobile electronic control system in the future. The average price of EMS of gasoline car is about 1200 yuan, and the value of pure electric VCU+MCU is 3000 yuan. When mixed with VCU+MCU+GCU, the value of bicycle is 5000 yuan, the value of bicycle increases significantly. We estimate that the overall market size of electric vehicle MCU/VCU/GCU/EMS in China will be about 53.8 billion yuan in 2025.
The company takes the hybrid electric control system as one of the main research and development directions, and has developed oil-electricity coupling technology, motor control technology and vehicle energy management technology. The company has developed a hybrid power management system including 48V micro-hybrid system, P2 structure hybrid, incremental hybrid, power shunt mixing and other structures, and realized the industrialization of incremental electric vehicles. The company also grasps engine control, motor control and electromechanical coupling technology, and has a certain market competitiveness in the development of hybrid electric vehicles.
Profit forecast and valuation: covered for the first time, we estimate that the net profit attributed to the parent company in 2022-2024 is RMB 243,389 million, with an annual profit growth rate of 77%, 60% and 23%, respectively. The earnings per share from 22 to 24 years were 4.71 pounds 7.53 pounds 9.24 yuan respectively. We give an one-year (2023) target valuation of 166-181 yuan, taking into account the obvious competitiveness of the company's hybrid system products, benefiting from the general trend of electrification in the industry, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: valuation risk, profit forecast risk, policy risk, market risk, customer expansion risk, gross profit margin decline risk, raw material price rise risk.