美联储何时停止加息可能取决于三个因素：美联储看跌期权的执行价格、美联储的心理因素以及企业信用利差的扩大速度。
美联储何时投降并停止加息，正在引发华尔街的热议。
今年迄今，标普500指数已经下跌18%，接近20%的熊市区间。市场纷纷热议，美联储到底何时会出手救市，对「陷入经济衰退的威胁」举手投降，宣布暂停加息。
昨日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克首次试探加息时机，称决策者在接下来的两次会议上，每次都加息50个基点后，可能会在9月份暂停加息动作：
在9月份暂停加息可能是合理的，这取决于经济情况。
目前，关于美联储何时暂停加息有三种观点。
第一个，也是最简单的，美联储看跌期权的执行价格（即逼迫美联储救市时标普500指数的点位）是多少。根据美国银行对华尔街投资者的调查，这一执行价现在已从年初的3700跌至3529。摩根士丹利首席美股策略师 Michael Wilson 称，至少要等到标普500跌到3500点以下，美联储才会出手救市。
第二个是美联储的心理因素。美国银行经济学家 Ethan Harris 表示，熟悉市场的人对标普500指数自去年年底以来下跌17%感到不满，这是可以理解的。
他将其与「美联储对标普500指数的看法」进行了对比，并补充说，如果没有出现毫无根据的混乱的崩溃，美联储会坚信股市仍比危机前的峰值高出15%这一事实。他还指出，由于在典型的消费模式中，家庭对价格的持续变化有三年左右的反应，美联储相信财富效应仍然是积极的，因此可以承受更多的股市下跌。
Harris 得出的结论是，从美联储的角度来看，股市调整会传递两种信息：这表明投资者对收益和贴现率持悲观态度，并通过财富效应影响企业信心和消费者支出。
从这些指标来看，美国银行的经济学家让那些渴望美联储投降的人失望了，因为股市「这次调整并不突出」，因为「毕竟，股市仍远高于金融危机前的峰值，标普500指数甚至还没有下跌20%。」
Harris 表示，鲍威尔可能认为我们还有很长的路要走，市场修正与经济疲软相符，但很可能不会陷入衰退。
但第三种观点对市场多头来说要积极得多。美国债券研究公司 CreditSights 认为，美国企业债券市场终于发出了一个受欢迎的、尽管十分危险的信号：股市崩盘即将结束。
Credit Sights的数据显示，企业债券利差——衡量企业债券相对于美国国债的利率溢价，在过去一年几乎翻了一番，表明市场对美国企业表现的担忧加剧。
这一信用利差现在开始收窄，CreditSights 表示，这表明股市正接近底部。这家公司研究了自1998年标普500指数出现最大单周跌幅以来的七个时期，发现信用利差的平均变化率在标普500指数开始反弹前42天达到峰值。
CreditSights 全球策略主管 Winnie Cisar 周一在一份报告中写道：
如果历史模式持续下去，投资级和高收益债券的绝对利差可能会继续扩大。
但他也指出，近期内这种扩大的速度应该会放缓，而股市的变化速度可能会加快，导致标普500指数更接近底部。
企业债券市场的动荡正在开始，并且愈演愈烈。根据彭博的数据，美国投资级指数的利差周一达到147个基点，接近150个基点的水平——这是许多策略师认为企业债券市场开始承压的临界值。
随着投资者对风险更高的债券失去兴趣，垃圾债券市场受到的打击更大。新的高收益债券供应量仅为去年的24%。
When the Fed stops raising interest rates may depend on three factors: the execution price of Fed put options, the psychological factors of the Fed and the speed at which corporate credit spreads widen.
When the Fed will surrender and stop raising interest rates is causing a heated debate on Wall Street.
So far this year, the s & p 500 is down 18%, close to a 20% bear market range. Markets are buzzing about when the Fed will step in to rescue the market, raise its hand to the "threat of recession" and suspend interest rate hikes.
Yesterday, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick tested the timing of the rate hike for the first time, saying that policy makers might suspend the rate hike in September after raising interest rates by 50 basis points in each of the next two meetings:
It may be reasonable to suspend interest rate hikes in September, depending on the economy.
At present, there are three views on when the Fed will stop raising interest rates.
The first and simplest is the strike price of the Fed's put option (the point at which the S & P 500 was forced to bail out the Fed).According to Bank of America Corporation's survey of Wall Street investors, the strike price has now fallen to 3529 from 3700 at the beginning of the year. Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the Fed will not bail out the market until at least the S & P 500s fall below 3500.
The second is the psychological factor of the Federal Reserve.Ethan Harris, an economist with Bank of America Corporation, says people familiar with the market are understandably unhappy that the S & P has fallen 17 per cent since the end of last year.
He compared it to the Fed's view of the S & P 500, adding that without an unfounded and chaotic collapse, the Fed would firmly believe that the stock market is still 15 per cent above its pre-crisis peak. He also pointed out that because in a typical consumption pattern, households react to continuous changes in prices for about three years.The Fed believes the wealth effect is still positive, so it can withstand more stock market declines.
Harris concluded that, from the Fed's point of view, the stock market correction sends two messages:This shows that investors are pessimistic about income and discount rate, and affect business confidence and consumer spending through the wealth effect.
Judging from these indicators, Bank of America Corporation's economists disappointed those eager for the Fed's surrender because the stock market "this adjustment is not prominent" because "after all, the stock market is still well above its pre-financial crisis peak. The S & P 500 has not even fallen 20 per cent. "
"Powell may think we have a long way to go, and the market correction is consistent with economic weakness," Harris said.But it is likely not to fall into recession.
But the third view is much more positive for market bulls. CreditSights, an American bond research firm, thinksThe US corporate bond market has finally sent a welcome, albeit dangerous, signal that the stock market crash is coming to an end.
The data from Credit Sights showCorporate bond spreads, which measure the interest rate premium on corporate bonds over US Treasuries, have almost doubled in the past year, in a sign of growing concerns about the performance of US companies.
This credit spread is now starting to narrow, CreditSights said, indicating that the stock market is nearing the bottom.The company studied seven periods since the S & P 500 suffered its biggest weekly decline in 1998It was found that the average rate of change in credit spreads peaked 42 days before the S & P 500 rebounded.
Winnie Cisar, head of global strategy at CreditSights, wrote in a report on Monday:
If the historical pattern continues, the absolute spread between investment grade and high-yield bonds is likely to continue to widen.
But he also pointed outThe pace of expansion should slow in the near term, while the pace of change in the stock market is likely to accelerate, bringing the S & P 500 closer to the bottom.
The turmoil in the corporate bond market is beginning and intensifying. Spreads on US investment-grade indices reached 147 basis points on Monday, according to Bloomberg.Close to 150 basis points-the threshold at which many strategists believe the corporate bond market is starting to come under pressure.
The junk bond market has been hit harder as investors lose interest in riskier bonds. The supply of new high-yield bonds is only 24% of what it was last year.
