近期，美股跌跌不休，市场对美国经济增长放缓甚至出现衰退的呼声此起彼伏，华尔街大行们竞相下调了对美国经济的前景预测，并纷纷采取策略以应对美联储在抗通胀状态下所导致的金融环境收紧。
美联储官员似乎嗅到了这一不妙的势头，开始陆续出来安抚市场，为美国经济「撑腰」了。
旧金山联储主席戴利称，
美国经济增长的动能非常强劲，并称美联储可以加息至不再大力刺激经济增长的水平，并且在这期间不会引发经济衰退；
认为能够经受住这场风暴，即提高利率直至物价恢复稳定，但仍会给美国人留下大量就业机会，并且经济也在扩张。
值得注意的是，不久前其曾表态，美联储未来几个月肯定会有一系列加息举措，这可能会使美国经济陷入轻度衰退。
无独有偶，今年鹰派票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周五再次重申了不久前其支持一次性加息50个基点对抗通胀的立场，而非此前声称的大幅加息75个基点，并表示今明年不会出现衰退。
美国今年的经济增长或将达到2.5%或3%，高于1.75%至2.0%的预期增长率，今年不会出现经济衰退……明年（2023年）出现经济衰退并不是我的看法。
就目前而言，单次加息50个基点仍然是一个很好的计划，必须留意经济数据。应当设法让联邦基金利率到2022年年末达到3.50%。
政策变化的时机和管理由主席鲍威尔决定，越快提高利率并控制住通胀预期，我们就有越多的空间来降低利率。在2023年和2024年我们可能会降低政策利率，因为我们控制住了通货膨胀。
2022年FOMC票委、美国堪萨斯联储主席乔治则表示，
预计美联储加息将使得8月份的主要利率水平在2%左右（即6、7月各加息50个基点），有关通胀率回落的证据将指引未来政策。
乔治曾被视为美联储鹰派色彩最浓重的官员之一，但她最近变得更像是一个中间派。作为2022年有投票权的委员，她认为加息幅度没有必要超过之前所暗示的水平。
而在加息周期才刚刚开始、市场还在寻求美联储即将加息多少基点之际，隔夜亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克已经开始放鸽了，
预计美联储可能会接下来6、7月的两次会议中分别加息50个基点，然后在9月份暂停加息。但具体要看通胀的情况，如果通胀持续高企，9月可能加息25或50个基点。
市场观点认为，这可以视为美联储在与市场提前做沟通，强调加息不会影响美国经济，并且此轮加息不会太长。
实际上不管美联储如何决策，只要有人出来说话，总会掀起一阵波澜。
而美联储也并非始终坚守单派立场，这一点可从美联储主席鲍威尔发言中窥探一二。有网友将鲍威尔自2021年Q1以来的立场制成一张图，从中也可以看出美联储态度立场转变之大。
美联储的「预期管理艺术」也早就运用得炉火纯青，在每次召开议息会议前夕，总会频频放风，不断地去试探市场的情绪点，引导市场去接受其货币政策的转变。
北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储FOMC将公布5月货币政策会议纪要，不知这次又会释放些什么信号呢？
牛友们，
美联储的“预期管理”做得如何？
联储官员近期接连释放“鸽派”言论，
5月的货币政策会议纪要会有“惊喜”吗？
欢迎在评论区留下您精彩的见解~
Some of the contents of this article are comprehensive Zizhitong Finance and Economics.
Recently, US stocks have fallen endlessly, and there have been repeated calls for a slowdown or even a recession in the US economy. Wall Street banks have competed to downgrade their forecasts for the US economy and have adopted strategies to deal with the tightening of the financial environment caused by the Fed's anti-inflation situation.
Fed officials seem to smell this bad momentum and begin to appease the market and "prop up" the US economy.
Daley, chairman of the San Francisco Fed, said
The momentum of US economic growth is very strong, and it says the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates to a level where it no longer vigorously stimulates economic growth.And it won't cause a recession in the meantime.
It is believed that it can withstand the storm, that is, raising interest rates until prices return to stability.But it will still leave a lot of jobs for Americans, and the economy is expanding.
It is worth noting thatNot long ago, he said that the Fed is sure to raise interest rates in the coming months, which could plunge the US economy into a mild recession.
Similarly, this year's hawkish voting committee and St. Louis Fed chairman Brad reiterated his support for a 50 basis point one-off rate hike to fight inflation not long ago, rather than the 75 basis point hike previously proclaimed, and said there would be no recession this year and next.
The US economy may grow by 2.5% or 3% this year, higher than the expected growth rate of 1.75% to 2.0%.There will be no recession this year. A recession next year (2023) is not my opinion.
For now, it is still a good plan to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, and we must pay attention to economic data. Efforts should be made to get the federal funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022.
The timing and management of policy changes are determined by Chairman Powell, and the sooner we raise interest rates and rein in inflation expectations, the more room we have to lower them.We may lower policy interest rates in 2023 and 2024 because we have brought inflation under control.
In 2022, George, chairman of the FOMC and chairman of the Kansas Federal Reserve, said
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at around 2 per cent in August (50 basis points each in June and July), and evidence of a fall in inflation will guide future policy.
George was once seen as one of the Fed's most hawkish officials, but she has recently become more of a centrist.As a voting member in 2022, she does not think it is necessary to raise interest rates by more than previously implied.
And at a time when the interest rate hike cycle has just begun and the market is still seeking how many basis points the Fed is about to raise interest rates, overnight.Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostick has begun to release pigeons.
The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in its next two meetings in June and July.Then the rate hike was suspended in September. But it depends on inflation. If inflation remains high, interest rates may rise by 25 or 50 basis points in September.
According to the market view, this can be seen as the Fed communicating with the market in advance, emphasizing that the rate hike will not affect the US economy, and that this round of interest rate hike will not be too long.
In fact, no matter how the Fed decides, as long as someone comes out to speak, there will always be a stir.
And the Fed does not always adhere to a single-minded position, which can be seen in the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Some netizens have made a picture of Powell's position since Q1 in 2021, which shows the great change in the attitude and position of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed's "art of expectation management" has long been well used, frequently on the eve of every interest rate meeting, constantly testing the emotional points of the market and guiding the market to accept changes in its monetary policy.
At 2: 00 a. M. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. I wonder what signal it will send this time.
Niu friends.
How is the Fed's "expectation management"?
Fed officials have recently released "dove" remarks one after another.
Will there be a "surprise" in the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in May?
Welcome to leave your wonderful insights in the comments area.
