Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 34% over the past week following Expensify, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EXFY) latest quarterly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 29% toUS$0.09 per share. Revenues of US$40m did beat expectations by 2.8%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Expensify after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Expensify

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Expensify from seven analysts is for revenues of US$182.1m in 2022 which, if met, would be a solid 19% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are anticipated to increase substantially, hitting US$0.25 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$178.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.04 in 2022. While the analysts have made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$25.86, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Expensify analyst has a price target of US$47.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Expensify's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 26% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 60% growth over the last year. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 14% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Expensify's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Expensify to become unprofitable next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Expensify going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Expensify that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.