This report is read as follows:
The performance is lower than expected, the special equipment and agency mode are relatively high, the globalization has made a breakthrough, and the negative pole is progressing smoothly.
Main points of investment:
Investment suggestion: the economic reversal of engineering machinery is still waiting for some time, and the EPS forecast for 2022-2023 will be reduced to 0.30 (- 0.52) / 0.49 (- 0.47) yuan, and the EPS forecast for 2024 will be increased by 0.69 yuan. With reference to industry valuation, the company will be given 25 times PE in 2022, and the target price will be reduced to 7.50 yuan to increase its holdings.
The performance was lower than expected, and the gross profit margin both fell. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 11.408 billion / + 21.7%, net profit of 318 million /-43.6%, and the performance was lower than expected. Gross profit margin 23.19%/-4.5pct, net profit 2.82% Maxime 4.3pct 5.72%/-5pct, gross profit margin downward is the main cause of profitability pressure. In 2021, direct material costs are 8.132 billion / + 30.3% under the sharp rise in steel, engine, reducer and other prices. In terms of period expenses, sales expenses are also higher than revenue by + 40.8% compared with the same period last year. 2022Q1 achieved revenue of 1.662 billion /-50% in a single quarter, while its home net profit of-49 million fell into loss.
There has been a relatively high increase in special equipment and agency models, and a breakthrough has been made in globalization. By category, the company has three categories whose growth rate is higher than total revenue in 2021: special equipment revenue 1.235 billion / + 194.8%, excavator revenue 3.819 billion / + 43.8% and accessories revenue 478 million / + 32%. In terms of sales model, self-operating revenue is 7.667 billion / + 17.1%, gross profit margin 28.2%/-7.4pct, agency revenue 3.74 billion / + 32.2%, gross profit margin 12.92%/+3.7pct From a regional perspective, domestic revenue 9.417 billion / + 18.8%, gross profit margin 22.77%/-3.9pct, overseas revenue 1.991 billion / + 37.3%, gross profit margin 25.17%/-7.8pct, overseas sales of excavators + 120% compared with the same period last year, of which Europe achieved explosive growth of + 150% compared with the same period last year. European excavators maintain the first place of domestic brands, and micro-excavators are exported to Japan in bulk.
Research and development continues to increase, and the negative electrode is progressing smoothly. The company's R & D investment in 2021 was + 13.2% compared with the same period last year, and there were 99 new product, forward-looking and kit development projects, of which 20 were mass-produced. The new material company develops three kinds of anode materials and realizes the sales, and the performance index meets the requirements of the first-class products in the national standard.
Risk tips: increased competition in construction machinery; rising prices of raw materials; overseas expansion is not as expected.
