22Q1's net profit is-52% compared with the same period last year, and high coal prices put pressure on short-term performance.
Changyuan Electric Power announcement disclosed: 21 years revenue year-on-year + 21% (Hubei Electric Power consolidation, retroactive adjustment) to 12.2 billion yuan, return to the mother net profit to a loss of 25 million yuan, deducting non-turn loss of 278 million yuan, in line with the performance of KuaiBao; 22Q1 revenue year-on-year + 20% to 3.7 billion yuan, home net profit-52% to 80 million yuan, mainly affected by the sharp rise in coal prices. The marketization of electricity price and the commissioning of new units have raised the revenue forecast; the coal price center has moved up and the gross profit margin forecast has been lowered. It is estimated that the maternal net profit in 22-24 years is 4.7 million yuan (7.6x83pm), and the BPS is 3.61kg 3.86pm (4.61pm). The average PB of thermal power / new energy generation in 22 years is 0.98 / 1.70x (Wind consensus forecast). The "14th five-year Plan" company makes every effort to promote the construction of clean energy in Fengfengshui, and its value is expected to be revalued, giving it a 22-year target 1.6xPB with a target price of 5.78 yuan (the previous value is 10.00 yuan, based on 21-year 2.3xPB) to maintain its overweight rating.
With the high year-on-year growth of electricity in 21 years, the scale of new energy is expected to increase significantly.
In 21 years, the company's electricity generation was + 16% year-on-year, thanks to the recovery of electricity demand in Hubei (the province's social electricity consumption was + 15% year-on-year), including thermal power year-on-year + 17%, wind power year-on-year + 55%, hydropower year-on-year-3%. At the end of the 21st year, the company controls the installed capacity 7.09GW, including thermal power 6.29GW, hydropower 585MW, wind power 193MW; the company is building thermal power 2.02GW, Fengguang new energy 582MW, we expect to be put into production in 22-23. The company's current new energy reserve scale 6.06GW, which approved / filed 4.41GWJI 21 years, the company relies on thermal power advantages to allocate new energy 3.18GW, the allocation scale ranks first in Hubei Province. As projects under construction and projects to be built are put into production one after another, we expect that power generation is expected to accelerate in 22-24.
Profitability is suppressed in the short term and is expected to be repaired in the medium to long term.
Affected by the sharp rise in domestic coal prices, we estimate that in 21 years, the comprehensive standard coal price of thermal power plants in the company has increased by about 30% compared with the same period last year. The company actively promotes the energy-saving transformation of thermal power units, and the coal consumption of power supply in the past 21 years has been reduced by 2.3 g / kWh compared with the same period last year. The marketization of electricity price has gradually opened up, and the average on-grid electricity price of the company in the past 21 years is + 3% compared with the same period last year. Under the comprehensive influence of coal price and electricity price, the company's electricity gross profit margin in 21 years is year-on-year-12.1pp. With the stabilization of coal prices, the expansion of electricity prices and the increase in the proportion of profits from new energy power generation, we expect the company's gross profit margin to pick up gradually in 22-24.
The target price is 5.78 yuan to maintain the overweight rating.
The current share price of the company corresponds to 22-year 1.34xPB, which is between the average PB of thermal power plant (0.98x) and the average PB of new energy generation (1.70x) (Wind consensus expectation). We think it reflects the optimistic expectation of the market for the company's positive transformation of clean energy. The value of the company is expected to be revalued and given a 22-year 1.6xPB with a target price of 5.78 yuan per share to maintain an overweight rating.
Risk tips: coal prices rose sharply; electricity prices adjusted sharply; new projects were put into production less than expected.
