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雷科防务(002413):军民品双轮驱动 利润短期承压不改长期成长空间

Rayco Defense (002413): Short-term pressure on military and civilian dual-wheel drive profits will not change long-term growth space

海通證券 ·  May 9, 2022 16:16  · Researches

Extension of mergers and acquisitions to deepen the layout of the military electronics industry. Raike Defense, a high-tech company dedicated to sensing, navigation and digital systems, was founded in 2002 and listed on the small and medium-sized board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010.

Since 2015, the company has continuously increased its code in the field of military and electronic information through seven epitaxial acquisitions. At present, it has formed five major business groups: radar system, intelligent control, satellite application, secure storage and intelligent network connection, with two-line development of military and civilian products. 2019 / 2020 / 2021/2022Q1 achieved revenue of 11.25 million yuan and net profit of 1.37 million yuan and 2.41 billion yuan respectively.

The company's profit end is under pressure in 2021, mainly due to the influence of tax policy and the rise of raw material prices. The subsidiaries Leike and Qiwei Technology set aside 407 million yuan in goodwill impairment, excluding the impact of impairment, the company achieved a net profit of 166 million yuan in 2021.

The military business continues to "focus", and the technical advantages in the field of radar and satellite remote sensing are obvious. Relying on Beijing Institute of Technology and Mao Erke academician team, the company has continuously increased its investment in technology research and development. it has mastered many core technologies, such as multi-source remote sensing information processing algorithm, independent high-performance processing chip, new system radar system, etc., and won the "Special Prize of National Defense Technology Invention" in the radar field in January 2021. Relying on the leading technological advantages, many models of the company's products are mass-produced and finalized, a special millimeter wave radar has entered the mass production stage, and the first spaceborne SAR anti-radiation chip independently developed is launched with the model and applied in orbit. We believe that under the background of the continuous growth of the national defense budget and the accelerated installation of new equipment, the company's radar business will rely on the advantages of a complete industrial chain and continue to supply core components and system products. Satellite application business will benefit from the North three networking process, and military business may develop by leaps and bounds during the 14th five-year Plan period.

With the continuous expansion of the civilian products market, millimeter wave radar opens the room for future growth. Since 2019, the company has laid out the new direction of intelligent network connection business, so that the company's radar and other products can be applied in the fields of smart city, intelligent transportation, intelligent driving and intelligent mining. Among them, the high-precision radar sensing system is the key to the realization of intelligent driving, but at present, the core technology of millimeter wave radar is still mastered by Bosch and other foreign manufacturers, and the industry barrier is high.

Through continuous research and development of coded millimeter wave radar, 77GHz vehicle-borne high-precision millimeter wave radar will achieve mass production and supply in 2020, and cooperate with many automobile companies such as SAIC, BAIC, FAW, Changan and so on. In 2021, the company's intelligent network business revenue will increase by about 1347% compared with 2020, and its performance has achieved a great breakthrough. in the future, the company will benefit from the country's new infrastructure strategy and domestic substitution process, and the market expansion is expected.

The fixed increase of investment and equity incentives demonstrate the company's determination to develop. The company completed a non-public offering in February 2021, raising a total of 600 million yuan for the acquisition of the remaining 30 percent stake in Eccot (280 million yuan), millimeter wave radar R & D center construction project (140 million yuan) and supplementary liquidity (180 million yuan). By the end of 2021, the progress of the millimeter wave radar project was 55%. According to the company's 2021 equity incentive plan, the 2022Universe 2023 net profit assessment target is 232 million yuan, and the unlocking target is a stringent demonstration of the company's determination to develop.

Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.16 / 0.23 / 0.32 yuan per share. Using the PE valuation method, we will give the company 35-40 times PE in 2022. We think that the corresponding reasonable value range is 5.65-6.46 yuan, which is rated as "better than the big market".

Risk hint. Changes in macroeconomic and industrial policies; intensified market competition.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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