The most eye-catching business of antelope is musculoskeletal plaster business. indications include osteoarthritis, shoulder and neck pain, low back pain, hyperosteogeny, rheumatism, acute contusion, sprain, bruising pain, pillow and muscle strain:
1) Aging brings industry increment, the market share of antelope Rui is the first and is still improving, and the leading advantage is highlighted. Aging will lead to the expansion of the paste audience. China's population over 45 years old will rise from 611 million to 695 million from 2022 to 2032, with an annual compound growth rate of 1.3%. The market size of skeletal muscle patch OTC in China is about 5.4 billion yuan. In the OTC end sales TOP20, antelope Rui has 5 products shortlisted, the market share of the industry first and steadily increased, rising from 16.3% in 2017 to 21.5% in 2021, the growth rate is higher than that of its peers, and the market concentration continues to increase.
2) the exclusive product Tongluo Qutong ointment has a steady growth rate and a high gross margin to improve plate profits. Tongluo Qutong ointment is the foundation of the company's entrepreneurship. The prescription has a long history and remarkable curative effect, and its sales have grown steadily over the years. Sales in 2019, 2020, and 2021 increased by 11.5%, 17.7%, 11.4% and 90%, respectively. The sales promotion of the combination of Huoxue Xiaotong tincture is smooth.
3) increase the price of ordinary paste and thicken the profit with high-quality products. The price of ordinary paste began to increase in October 2021, including 0.1yuan / paste for Zhuanggu musk pain ointment and 0.05yuan / paste for joint pain ointment, and 0.05yuan / paste for Shangshi Zhitong ointment. So far, the price increase is good, and it is expected to increase the company's profit by 6000-80 million in 2022. In addition, Zhuanggu Musk pain Ointment has launched a boutique package, which has better interlining ductility, sticky upgrade, less irritation to the skin, higher unit price and profit, and the proportion of fine products has gradually increased to 18%.
4) after the decline of the impact of the epidemic, the performance of Xiaoer antipyretic patch and Shu abdominal patch gradually recovered in 2021, and the ointment business burst into vitality after being incorporated into the OTC team.
New vitality burst out in the clinical end. The revenue from distributed products in 2021 was 1.286 billion yuan, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. Most of them are clinical products, including oral drug Peiyuan Tongnao capsule 450 million yuan, Danlu Tongdu tablet 130 million yuan, patch Tongluo Qutong ointment 200-300 million yuan, fentanyl transdermal patch 66 million yuan. After the two-vote system in 2017, the ex-factory price of oral drugs has increased significantly, while sales have declined to a certain extent, and the income of oral drugs has remained relatively stable. Peiyuan Tongnao capsule mainly treats cerebrovascular diseases and has a large market scale. The indication of Danlu Tongdu tablet is lumbar spinal canal stenosis, using exclusive agent sales mode, and the growth rate is high. The competition pattern of transdermal fentanyl is stable and is expected to achieve rapid growth. In addition, in recent years, the company has added a new primary health care sales team, mainly selling diabetes drugs (Shenqi Jiangtang capsule, metformin), with a high growth rate.
Equity incentives require profit growth of 20%, 20%, 15% from 2021 to 2023, demonstrating the company's confidence in performance. After the marketing reform in 2019, the sales lines were merged and divided into OTC end, clinical end, and primary health care to achieve the integration of sales resources. at present, the sales expense rate is close to 50% and the target is reduced by 0.5-1% per year. In 2021, the growth rate of deduction non-net profit reached the target, while the cost of sales decreased.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 3.13 billion yuan, 3.49 billion yuan and 3.82 billion yuan respectively, up 16.5%, 11.4% and 9.5% year-on-year, and net profit is 441 million yuan, 516 million yuan and 593 million yuan respectively, up 22.0%, 17.0% and 15.0% year-on-year. The corresponding PE values are 15.4,13.1 and 11.4 times, respectively.
The company is the leader of traditional Chinese medicine paste, and its market share is increasing year by year. Under the premise of strong brand power, the company implements price increases and thickens profits, and is optimistic about its steady growth under the aging trend. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: general drug sales decline after the price increase; prescription drug collection leads to a decline in price and profits; the epidemic aggravates the recovery of paediatric patch sales; the proportion of high-quality paste climbs less than expected; and the inconvenience of selling leads to a decline in sales under the epidemic.