▍The State Council issued opinions on promoting consumption, and Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places issued consumption coupons.

The recovery of consumption is slow under the influence of the local epidemic. On April 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the "opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustained recovery of consumption", which put forward 12 key measures in five areas, and the policy intention to promote consumption recovery is obvious. Since the beginning of this year, various places have issued consumption vouchers to stimulate residents' consumption.

• This month, Beijing issued a policy on promoting green and energy-saving consumption on April 12. More than 300 million yuan of Beijing green energy-saving consumption vouchers will be distributed to consumers in Beijing from April to September this year, including 20 types of home appliances. It will be distributed in six phases through JD.com Mall, SUNING and other platforms.

• Tianjin District 3 is expected to issue 37 million yuan of consumption vouchers from April, including car purchase subsidies, food and beverage vouchers, shopping mall promotions, and so on.

• Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce announced that it will issue 500 million yuan coupons to Shenzhen consumers one after another through Meituan and JD.com platforms, which are mainly suitable for shopping, catering, tourism, sports and other related consumption. it is expected to be distributed in four rounds from April to May.

▍The steady growth promotion fee policy is expected to continue to be launched, and the effect of consumption vouchers is expected to be related to categories.

The current local epidemic is still in a severe situation, and the impact of spillover is not yet clear, which is expected to have an impact on economic growth in the short term and a greater impact on residents' income and domestic consumption. The policy orientation of the state to support the recovery of consumption is clear, and we expect that follow-up top-down regulation and control measures are expected to continue to be introduced, including various policies around the goal of stabilizing growth, as well as local policies to promote consumption, such as issuing consumption coupons, so as to ease the pressure on domestic consumption.

From the actual stimulating effect of consumption coupons, we expect that the actual write-off and prying consumption may be related to its applicable categories. For example, household appliances and equipment suitable for Beijing consumption vouchers are non-essential durable consumer goods, it is expected that consumers are not willing to consume impulsively and hoard goods at low prices, and such products usually have certain discounts and preferential activities, and their prices fluctuate greatly. it is expected that the effect of consumption vouchers is relatively limited. On the other hand, the issuance of consumption coupons to offline service related areas may bring a greater multiplier effect.

▍Consumption allocation has a greater potential opportunity in the second half of the year, and is optimistic about the main line of epidemic repair.

At present, the impact of the local epidemic is still expanding, and the periodic impact is inevitable. It is expected that the operating data forecast of consumer enterprises from March to May will be greatly reduced. However, the impact of the local epidemic has been expected from the investment level, and in the dimension of 1-2 years, the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policy will come eventually.

We think that the current travelThe logic of the marginal improvement trend of the industrial chain (hotels, duty-free, scenic spots, catering, etc.) has not changed.After the phased adjustment, it is still expected to return to the market line of sight, show to repair the market, and pay more attention to the decline in the process.

In terms of the overall allocation of consumption, we thinkThe potential opportunity in the second half of the year is greater than that in the first half, mainly considering that consumption, as a terminal transmission, depends on the landing and implementation of the stable growth policy, and there is a certain lag.

On the basis of our confidence in the stable growth policy, the allocation value of the relative representative track of consumption prosperity such as liquor and sports products will be more obvious at that time.

▍Risk factors:

The uncertainty of the global epidemic; the economic growth rate is falling faster than expected, corresponding to the decline in consumer demand; policy risks in various industries; the risk of higher-than-expected inflation and insufficient price raising power affecting profitability, and so on.

▍Investment strategy:

At present, the impact of the local epidemic is still expanding, the consumer sector, which is already under pressure, will be challenged again in the short term, and phased shocks are inevitable. It is expected that the operating data of consumer enterprises from March to May will face a large downward adjustment. However, the impact of the local epidemic is expected from the investment level, in the dimension of 1-2 years, the impact of the epidemic will eventually weaken, short-term pressure is inevitable, but not pessimistic in the long run.

For short-term consumption, the overall resilience is expected to continue, although the fundamental pressure is still expanding, but from the perspective of expected end, marginal change, combined with long-term space, the value bottom of high-quality consumer enterprises is gradually emerging. Considering that it takes time for policies to pull to economic transmission, we believe that the potential opportunities for the second half of the year are greater than those for the first half of the year.

Short-term recommendations are still based on the logical main line of epidemic mitigation and marginal repair.Focus on hotels, duty-free, scenic spots, catering and other travel industry chain related industries, food, dairy products and other popular products, as well as planting, breeding and other agricultural sectors.

▍The recommended portfolio for the whole year is maintained:

Bettany, Flavor Foods, Huali Group,$Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) $、$Huazhu (HTHT.US) $, China China exemption,$Smoore International Holdings Limited (06969.HK) $, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou laojiao,$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $、$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $、$JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $, Dabei Nong, Wen's shares, Chengguang Stationery, Sun Paper, Perea, Huaxi Biology,$China Resources Beer (00291.HK) $、$Helens (09869.HK) $。