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蒙草生态(300355)年报点评:投资亏损大但毛利率上升费用率下降 草种业优势显著

Comment on the annual report of Mongolian grass ecology (300355): the investment loss is large, but the gross profit rate increases, the expense rate decreases, and the grass seed industry has a significant advantage.

招商證券 ·  Apr 24, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Project orders are growing at a high speed, and the grass seed industry is the domestic leader. The company signed new engineering orders of 4.58 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 362.48%, and other newly signed orders of 24 million yuan. In the past 22 years, the company has newly signed "Comprehensive Management Project of Horqin Sandy Land in Tongliao City" and "Integrated Protection and Restoration Project of Grass and Sand in Horqin Landscape, Forest and Field Lake", with a contract amount of 1.461 billion yuan and 523 million yuan respectively. The company has sufficient orders on hand to support long-term growth. At present, the company has 31 PPP projects, 25 of which have entered the operation period. In the seed industry, the company ranks sixth on the list of innovative subjects of grass seed owners in the world by virtue of its technological advantages. At present, a total of 25 national and autonomous region grass varieties have been approved and 6 national new plant variety rights have been obtained.

Revenue has increased significantly and gross profit margin has increased significantly. The income realized in 2021 was 2.911 billion yuan, an increase of 14.54 percent. Among them, the revenue of the subsidiary Mengcao seed industry is 82 million yuan. The operating income outside Inner Mongolia is 1.001 billion yuan, an increase of 106.85%, mainly due to the company's expansion outside Mongolia, the proportion is expected to increase in the future. The 21-year gross profit margin was 39.32%, an increase of 4.17%. Among them, the gross profit margin of natural ecosystem protection and management increased by 39.18% and 4.41%, mainly due to the increase in the number of PPP projects and low-cost maintenance business in the operation period. if the number of PPP projects in the operation period further increases, the gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase.

The expense rate decreased significantly and the net profit increased at a high speed. The expense rate during the 21-year period was 11.42%, down 8.76 percentage points from the same period last year. This is mainly due to the economies of scale brought about by the sharp increase in revenue. Among them, the sales expense rate was 1.54%, down 0.93% from the same period last year; the management expense rate was 4.90%, down 1.16% from the same period last year; the R & D expense rate was 4.09%, down 0.75% from the same period last year; and the financial expense rate was 0.9%, down 5.92% from the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the number of PPP projects in operation and the increase in interest income. The 21-year investment income is-204 million yuan, mainly due to the massive loss of Zhejiang Putian Garden, which is expected to improve greatly in 22 years. The 21-year asset and credit impairment losses totaled 163 million yuan, a decrease of 16 million yuan compared with the same period. Taken together, the net profit of returning to the mother in 21 was 309 million yuan, an increase of 33.22%, and the lower limit of performance forecast in 2021.

Cash flow has improved rapidly and the asset-liability ratio has remained stable. The 21-year income-to-cash ratio was 0.8274, up 5.54 percent from the same period last year, and the cash-to-cash ratio was 0.8371, down 40.5 percent from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in cash payments for goods and services. Taken together, the operating net cash inflow was 580 million yuan, an increase of 1.017 billion yuan over the same period last year, mainly due to the company's increased efforts to collect, cash rebate of 2.409 billion yuan in 21 years, accounting for 82.76% of operating income.

There was a net outflow of 40 million yuan from investment activities, 36 million yuan less than that of the same period last year. The asset-liability ratio is 64.04%, which is basically stable.

Investment suggestion: the company is the leader of the seed industry, the operation is good, the increase of PPP projects during the operation period leads to the increase of gross profit margin, significant cost reduction and efficiency results, and good cash flow. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.26,0.33,0.42 yuan per share, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 15.7,12.1,9.6 times, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" rating.

Risk hint: the risk of payment delay caused by the decline in local government revenue, and the expansion of the seed industry is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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