最新行情数据显示，美国抵押贷款利率升至5.11％，为2010年4月以来最高。
去年，美联储宽松政策下，抵押贷款利率下行，美国购房需求旺盛；然而，随着美联储开启加息周期，抵押贷款利率飙升，美国地产热退潮已经开始。
据报道，NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun说，现在这股热潮开始缓和，房屋销量正恢复到疫情前的水平。随着抵押贷款利率达到5%，他预计2022年的房屋销售将较去年下降10%。
现时利率上升，未来经济收缩？
那么，抵押贷款利率的猛烈涨幅对经济意味着什么呢？首先，抵押贷款成本无疑会给已经面临房价飙升的潜在购房者带来挑战，其次，更高的利率也影响到购房抵押贷款的申请需求，再者，上升的利率将使房主更难通过再融资来节省资金。这些影响都会令美国楼市活动降温。
另外，根据下图显示，ISM制造业PMI（衡量经济实力的关键指标）历来也与抵押贷款成本的变化密切相关。这些数据表明，当抵押贷款服务成本迅速上升时，往往预示着经济活动的急剧放缓。
对美股哪些板块影响最大？
住房贷款利率大幅飙升会给美股房地产板块带来多重影响，对于希望购买首套房的普通居民而言，购房难度无疑会加大。
与此同时，已经拥有房产的房主想要置换的难度会更大，因为置换将意味着放弃较低的利率，需要承受较高的新利率。此外，住房贷款利率飙升也会推动买家选择在房价更低的地区购买面积较小的住房。
据媒体报道，美国上周抵押贷款申请减少；此前一周买家急于在利率走高前锁定利率，需求小幅上升。
MBA表示，其购买综合指数（衡量的是购买单一家庭住房的所有抵押贷款申请）经季调后下跌3.0%，至254.0，再融资指数下跌8%。这在一定程度上也会影响建筑需求；因此除了美国房地产，相关的板块如建材、装修等板块也会在一定程度上受影响。
This article synthesizes the experiences of Zi Zhi Tong Finance and Wall Street.
The latest market data show that US mortgage rates rose to 5.11%, the highest since April 2010.
Last year, under the Fed's loose policy, mortgage rates fell and US demand for home purchases was strong; however, as the Fed began its interest rate hike cycle and mortgage rates soared, the US real estate boom has begun.
According to reports, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the NAR, said that now the boom is beginning to ease and home sales are returning to pre-epidemic levels. With mortgage rates at 5%, he expects home sales to fall by 10% in 2022 from last year.
With interest rates rising now, will the economy contract in the future?
So what does the sharp rise in mortgage rates mean for the economy?First, mortgage costs will undoubtedly pose a challenge to potential homebuyers who are already facing soaring house prices. Second, higher interest rates will also affect the demand for mortgage loans. Second, rising interest rates will make it harder for homeowners to save money through refinancing. All these effects will cool the activity of the US housing market.
In addition, according to the chart below, ISM manufacturing PMI (a key measure of economic strength) has always been closely related to changes in mortgage costs. These figures suggest that when the cost of mortgage services rises rapidly, it tends to herald a sharp slowdown in economic activity.
Which sectors have the greatest impact on US stocks?
The sharp rise in home loan interest rates will have multiple effects on the US real estate sector, which will undoubtedly make it more difficult for ordinary residents who want to buy their first suite.
At the same time, it will be harder for homeowners who already own property to replace it, because it would mean giving up lower interest rates and having to bear higher new interest rates. In addition, soaring interest rates on home loans will also encourage buyers to choose to buy smaller homes in areas where prices are lower.
According to media reports, mortgage applications in the United States fell last week, a week after buyers were eager to lock in interest rates before they rose, and demand rose slightly.
MBA said its composite index of purchases, which measures all mortgage applications to buy a single family home, fell 3.0 per cent on a quarterly basis to 254.0, while the refinancing index fell 8 per cent. This will also affect the building demand to a certain extent.Therefore, in addition to U. S. real estate, related plates such as building materials, decoration and other plates will also be affected to a certain extent.
