The 2021 performance turned into a loss of 2.2 billion yuan, high coal prices suppressed profitability, and Construction Investment Energy released 2021 results: revenue of 15 billion yuan (+6%/-2% pre- and post-traceability), net profit and loss of 2.2 billion yuan after deduction, loss of 2.36 billion yuan after deduction. Performance was lower than Huatai's forecast (profit of 240 million yuan), mainly due to the sharp rise in coal prices, which led to losses in the thermal power business. In 21Q4, the company's revenue was 4.3 billion yuan (-8% year-on-year), and the net profit of the mother turned into a loss of 1.5 billion yuan. After adjusting the coal price assumption and gross profit margin, the company's net profit for 22-24 is estimated to be -4.44/396/471 million yuan (previous value: 588/956/100 million yuan). Comparable to the company's average PB in '22 (Wind's consistent expectations), the company's current stock price corresponds to 0.82xPb in '22. The company's thermal power assets were of high quality, giving the company 1.0xPb in '22, with a target price of 5.11 yuan/share (previous value: 5.40 yuan, based on 0.8xPb in '21), maintaining the rating for increasing holdings.
Power generation has declined, heat sales have increased, and fuel costs have risen sharply
In 2021, the power generation capacity held by the company fell 7% year-on-year to 39 billion kilowatt-hours, and the average utilization hours were 4261 hours (2020:4,657 hours), 187 hours lower than the national average of thermal power, and electricity revenue -7% year-on-year; the power generation capacity of participating companies increased 11% year-on-year to 45.1 billion kilowatt-hours. The scale of heating was expanded. In 2021, the company's holding heat sales increased 2% year over year, and heat revenue increased 2% year over year. Fuel costs followed a sharp rise in coal prices: in 2021, fuel costs in the company's power generation industry were +43% year on year, of which the average unit price of standard coal rose 54% year on year to 866 yuan/ton; in 2021, the company's Changxie coal delivery rate was 73%, making the unit price of standard coal superior to other power generation groups in the same region.
Formulate a “dual carbon” action plan to start green transformation and development
In 2021, the company added 1.64 GW of PV registration capacity, established Inner Mongolia Jineng New Energy, and carried out investment and development of clean energy projects in the autonomous region. The company actively promoted preliminary work on integrated energy service projects in Hebei and Shanxi industrial parks. The first phase of the integrated energy service project in the Colin Electric Industrial Park completed the distribution network, roof photovoltaics, heat pump cooling and heating combined supply, and electric vehicle charging station projects. Using the advantages of power resources, the company expanded to the electricity consumption side and started a data center pilot project. In 2021, the company achieved a carbon quota transaction of 124 million yuan and launched the first domestic carbon asset certification and financial transaction service platform.
Adjust profit forecasts and maintain holdings growth ratings
Considering the high level and fluctuation of coal prices, the assumption that the coal price will be raised will be adjusted, and the power generation capacity and gross profit ratio will be lowered. We expect the company's net profit to be -4.44/396/471 million yuan in 22-24 (previous value: 588/956/yuan), and BPS to be 5.11/5.33/5.59 yuan (previous value: 7.04/7.477- yuan). Comparable to the company's average PB in '22 (Wind's consistent expectations), the company's current stock price corresponds to 0.82xPb in '22. The company's thermal power assets were of high quality, giving the company 1.0xPb in '22, with a target price of 5.11 yuan/share (previous value: 5.40 yuan, based on 0.8xPb in '21), maintaining the rating for increasing holdings.
Risk warning: Risk of rising coal prices; electricity demand falls short of expectations; progress of projects under construction falls short of expectations.