The company released the 2021 annual report, the performance is in line with market expectations.
In 2021, revenue was 4.446 billion yuan, + 106% compared with the same period last year; net profit was 405 million yuan, + 2859%; net profit was 405 million yuan, + 7422%; and 375 million yuan was deducted from non-net profit. Of which 2021Q4's revenue is 1.21 billion yuan, month-on-month-1%; net profit 83 million yuan, month-on-month-31%; return-mother net profit 83 million yuan, month-on-month-31%; deduction of non-net profit 79 million yuan, month-on-month-25%
The provision of asset impairment leads to the decrease of Q4 net interest rate and the continuous improvement of Q4 net interest rate.
The company's 2021 gross profit margin is 24.7%, and the parent net profit rate is 9.1%, which is + 4.3pct and 8.9pct respectively compared with the same period last year. Among them, due to 2021Q4 one-time asset impairment of 63 million yuan, return to the mother net profit of 84 million yuan, month-on-month ratio of-30%, return-mother net profit rate of 6.9%, month-on-month ratio-2.9pct.
If the impact of asset impairment loss is excluded, the estimated net profit of 2021Q4 is 143 million yuan, month-on-month + 19%, return-to-home net interest rate 11.9%, month-on-month + 2.1pct.
Quantity: production capacity continues to expand, product structure optimization.
Production capacity and shipments: at the end of 2021, the company has a capacity of 43000 tons of lithium copper foil and 36000 tons of shipments for the whole year. On a quarterly basis, 2021Q1-Q4 shipments are expected to reach 0.82,0.90,0.92 and 9600 tons respectively; according to product structure, shipments of 4-4.5 μ m, 6 μ m and 7-8 μ m are expected to be 0.6,2.0 and 9000 tons respectively, accounting for about 15,60 and 25 per cent, respectively.
Revenue: the revenue of copper foil business in 2021 is 4.086 billion yuan, + 116% compared with the same period last year, of which lithium copper foil revenue is expected to exceed 3.5 billion yuan, + 150% year-on-year; revenue from other businesses (wire and cable, trade, etc.) is 360 million yuan, + 35% year-on-year.
Benefit: the fee rate has improved significantly, and the profitability has increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
In the copper foil business, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 24.6%, an increase of + 5.7pct over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in processing fees under the tight balance between supply and demand, and the obvious improvement in the rate of expenses during the period compared with the same period last year-7.2pct. It is estimated that the net profit per ton of 2021Q4 lithium copper foil is about 13,000 yuan / ton.
In other businesses, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 10.5%, which was + 4.3pct compared with the same period last year.
Future outlook: the tight balance between supply and demand continues, and the company's product structure continues to be optimized.
At the industry level, the supply-side tension caused by strong demand in 2022 but tight overseas production capacity of core equipment and immature domestic alternatives will continue. At the company level, capacity and shipments continue to grow: 2022 is expected to produce 70,000 tons of nominal capacity and 55000 tons of shipments (previously estimated to be 60,000 tons, which was reduced by 5000 tons affected by the April epidemic); 2023 nominal production capacity of 135000 tons, shipments of 7.5-80,000 tons, 2025 production capacity is expected to exceed 200000 tons Product structure optimization: the company is expected to continue to increase the proportion of 4 μ m copper foil shipments to 20% in 2022, leading to a further improvement in the company's profitability. Stable customer structure: the company has overseas and domestic high-quality battery enterprises and vehicle enterprise customers.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company's 2022-23 net return profit of 82xt is 1.16 billion yuan, corresponding to 15 times of PE 22max.
Risk hint
The company's shipments were lower than expected; the company's shipments and profits were lower than expected; copper prices fell faster than expected; industry competition exceeded expectations.