毕竟在俄乌冲突之下，海运贸易损失的煤炭量达到1.1亿吨。
在传统能源中，不仅天然气成为香饽饽，煤炭的上冲动力同样不容小觑。
据彭博社报道称，澳大利亚煤炭公司Whitehaven Coal表示，俄乌冲突之下全球煤炭贸易中断，因此煤炭价格的涨势应该可以延续到明年。
Whitehaven 在周三发布的报告中提及，目前包括日韩在内的主要客户都在避免和俄罗斯签订新的商品合约，而缺乏替代品也导致市场正在承受压力。对此该公司表示，从今年到明年“制热能源和冶金能源的价格都有望得到有利支撑”。
Whitehaven指出，今年前三个月的纽卡斯尔港的基准动力煤平均价格为每吨264美元，比2021年第四季度的价格高出43%。截止本周二，4月平均价格为每吨302美元，而纽卡斯尔动力煤期货的5月合约在本月上涨约三分之一。
公司首席执行官Paul Flynn在周三的电话会议上透露：
海运贸易损失1.1亿吨（煤炭），这不可能没有影响......这只会给已经非常非常紧张的市场增加更多压力。
Flynn还提到，虽然消费国继续接受以前签订的俄罗斯煤炭，但在一些新的采购合同中，特别排除了俄罗斯能源。
华尔街见闻此前提及，在欧盟和七国集团宣布对俄罗斯煤炭实施制裁之后，全球煤炭价格都或将受到影响。
这里以欧盟为例。假设欧盟继续实施对俄罗斯煤炭的禁运，那么欧洲将不得不大幅增加从哥伦比亚、南非、印度尼西亚和澳大利亚的进口量，而这种“转向”将迫使印度等主要煤炭进口国转向从俄罗斯进口。
而这一系列过程可能会造成俄罗斯和其他出口国因物流运输限制而转换出口目的地，全球煤炭总产量可能会因此下降，从而推高所有消费者承受的煤炭价格。
并且，即使这种“转向”顺利完成，所有国家都要从更远的地方来进口煤炭，货运成本或将因此被推高。而对于煤炭这种大宗商品，运输成本在最终消费者价格中占据很大比例，所以终端价格可能会大幅上涨。
而且还要考虑到煤炭本身的情况。来自不同国家的煤炭在能量、挥发性有机化合物、灰分和其他杂质方面差异很大。大多数发电机都是被设计成使用特定等级的煤炭，所以一旦改换成并不完美的替代品或将增加所有发电机的燃料成本，从而提高电价。
After all, under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the loss of coal from seaborne trade reached 110 million tons.
In traditional energy, not only natural gas has become popular, but also the upward thrust of coal should not be underestimated.
According to Bloomberg, Australian coal company Whitehaven Coal saidGlobal coal trade has been disrupted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so the rise in coal prices should continue into next year.
Whitehaven said in a report released on Wednesday that major customers, including Japan and South Korea, are avoiding new commodity contracts with Russia, and that the lack of alternatives is putting pressure on the market. To this end, the company said that from this year to next year, "heating energy and metallurgical energy prices are expected to be favorable support."
Whitehaven noted that the average price of benchmark thermal coal in Newcastle Port in the first three months of this year was US $264 per tonne, higher than the price in the fourth quarter of 2021.43% higher. As of Tuesday, the April average price was $302 a tonne, while Newcastle's May contract for thermal coal futuresIncreased by about 1/3 this month.。
Paul Flynn, CEO of the company, revealed on a conference call on Wednesday:
The loss of 110 million tons (coal) in seaborne trade cannot be without impact. This will only add more pressure to the already very tight market.
Flynn also mentionedAlthough consumers continue to accept Russian coal previously signed, Russian energy is specifically excluded from some new procurement contracts.
Wall Street mentioned earlier that after the European Union and the Group of Seven announced sanctions on Russian coal.Global coal prices may be affected.
Take the European Union as an example. Assuming that the EU continues to impose an embargo on Russian coal, Europe will have to significantly increase its imports from Colombia, South Africa, Indonesia and Australia, and this "shift" will force major coal importers such as India to switch to Russia.
This series of processes could cause Russia and other exporters to change their export destinations due to logistics and transport restrictions, which could lead to a decline in total global coal production, pushing up coal prices for all consumers.
And even if this "shift" is successfully completed, all countries will have to import coal from farther away, which could push up freight costs. For commodities such as coal, transport costs account for a large proportion of final consumer prices, so terminal prices are likely to rise sharply.
And take into account the situation of coal itself. Coal from different countries varies greatly in terms of energy, volatile organic compounds, ash and other impurities. Most generators are designed to use specific grades of coal, so once replaced by imperfect alternatives, it will increase the fuel cost of all generators, thereby raising electricity prices.
