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今日聚焦
中信证券：经济有望在二三季度实现修复
海通证券：创业板指数短期仍将会以弱势整理为主，不排除仍有进一步下跌的可能性
中金：若原油价格上涨受阻，农产品价格上涨空间或有限
中信建投：上海推动企业复工复产，重点推荐智能汽车产业链
中金公司：基建稳增长标的仍有演绎空间，关注低估值个股
华创证券：短期原材料、疫情冲击后带来汽车零部件板块低估值配置机会
银河证券：央行降准稳增长预期加强，能源金属板块有望开启反弹
国金证券：疫情不改长期增长，建议关注头部快递公司
中金：展望恒指季检，快手(01024)等或有望被纳入恒指成分股
安信国际：维持长城汽车(02333)买入评级，目标价下调至24港元
中金：维持百威亚太(01876)「跑赢行业」评级，目标价降7.5%到26.1港元
研报观点精选
一、宏观大市
中信证券认为，2022年一季度GDP同比增长4.8%，略弱于2021年三季度水平，数据反映出了经济增速的下行压力。结构特点更值得关注：1）生产端中，服务业边际转弱，但工业总体保持韧性；2）需求端中，基建投资加速上行，其他需求变量受到不同程度冲击，消费压力有所凸显。需要看到，由于一季度GDP、固定资产投资等指标占全年比重相对较小，后续稳增长还有时间和空间，随着政策的进一步发力，经济有望在二三季度实现修复。
海通证券指出，俄乌冲突导致的大宗商品价格持续在高位整理，或将进一步引发粮食危机的可能性增加，部分农产品价格达到10年以来的新高，有色金属价格继续出现上涨，原油价格仍然在100美元上方，高价的原材料使得下游企业利润进一步压缩，不得不涨价来应对，时间久了终端消费需求会下降，不利于长期可持续发展。连续创新低的创业板指数仍然在2474点附近震荡，始终未能摆脱该区域形成有效反弹且成交量继续低迷，短期仍将会以弱势整理为主，不排除仍有进一步下跌的可能性。
二、行业板块
中金公司认为，本次价格上涨中，成本因子对粮价的推动作用强于基本面对于价格的支撑。因此我们认为，向前看，若原油价格上涨受阻，农产品价格上涨空间或有限。当然，在全球低库存及供应恢复不及预期的背景下，一段时间内农产品价格重心或将明显抬升。
中信建投指出，4月16日晚，上海市经信委发布工业企业复工复产疫情防控指引提出，在确保风险可控的前提下，落实闭环管理，有力有序有效推动企业复工复产，保障产业链供应链安全稳定。第一批拟复工复产的企业包括汽车制造行业，重点推荐关注智能汽车产业链。
中金公司认为，展望后市，基建稳增长标的仍有演绎空间，关注低估值个股。从近期建筑板块市场表现来看，近十个交易日头部建筑央企股价自低点快速反弹后、目前股价维持高位小幅波动。在当前经济尚未企稳、基建尚未充分发力的情况下，后续稳增长标的仍有演绎空间，选股方面建议关注质地优质、业绩稳健、估值安全边际高的个股；同时建议关注稳增长阻力小、财政发力确定性高的区域；此外也建议关注中长期高增长、当前估值回落至低点的个股布局机会。
华创证券指出，看好2Q汽车零部件重新布局机会，下半年板块高增速预期不变，中长期中国汽车零部件在全球竞争优势提升进而带来量价提升的预期不变，短期原材料、疫情冲击后带来低估值配置机会。
银河证券指出，国内疫情形势严峻以及稳增长的要求之下，货币宽松和财政支持加码预期加强，央行降准25个基点，基建投资增速已出现明显的反弹。在房地产板块大幅反弹下，房地产产业链上游的工业金属或将随着下游需求回暖，景气度边际上行。
国金证券指出，疫情不改长期增长，建议关注头部快递公司。电商消费的需求仍然还在，待国内疫情得控，进入6月传统旺季，抑制的消费需求有望释放，快递业务量增速有望达30%以上。
三、个股方面
恒生指数公司将于5月20日公布恒生系列指数一季度审议结果。中金预计，关注部分新经济龙头，指数扩容有可能加快，基于现有数据及指数调整方法，以及通过此前调整结果对系统性优化后的编制方法的理解和验证，该行估算百度(09888.HK)、快手(01024.HK)、京东健康(06618.HK)、百济神州(06160.HK)、中芯国际(00981.HK)、翰森制药(03692.HK)、哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)及中国燃气(00384.HK)排在恒生指数顺位前列，有可能成为被纳入的潜在候选者。此外，汇丰控股(00005.HK)和友邦保险(01299.HK)的权重可能会从当前的8.32%和8.19%被动小幅下调至8%，进而带来潜在被动资金流出。
安信国际发布研究报告称，维持长城汽车(02333.HK)买入评级，受原材料涨价、芯片短缺、疫情等因素影响，一季度产销量及业绩承压。该行将长城汽车2022/23年净利调整至89亿/118亿，目标价下调至24港元，较现价有118%上涨空间，对应22年20倍预测市盈率。报告称，预计4月疫情会影响芯片及其他零配件的生产与物流运输，行业好转需要等到5月。2022年多款产品即将上市，仍处于产品强势期。
中金发布研究报告称，公司同样正在经受成本上涨的考验，但成本管控能力和提价能力优于行业，或使得最终成本涨幅低于行业。因各成本价格持续上涨，公司1Q22毛利率和EBITDA利润率均承压，中金估计1Q22EBITDA利润率基本与同期持平。但运营采购层面的高效性，及背靠全球最大啤酒公司百威英博对上游的议价力，认为全年成本上涨压力将明显小于本土啤酒龙头。
"Daily Research selection" closely follows the latest research trends of institutions, insights and combs the views of the most representative big cities, industries and individual stocks, provides Niu you with third-party institutional analysis and rating reference, and helps Niu you to provide an overview of investment banking trends. Easy to grasp investment opportunities!
Focus Today
CITIC: the economy is expected to be repaired in the second and third quarters.
Haitong: the gem index will still be dominated by weakness in the short term, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out.
CICC: if the rise in the price of crude oil is blocked, the increase in the price of agricultural products may be limited.
Citic Construction Investment: Shanghai promotes enterprises to return to work and production, with emphasis on recommending the intelligent automobile industry chain.
China International Capital Corporation: there is still room for interpretation of the stable growth target of infrastructure, focusing on undervalued stocks.
Huachuang Securities: the impact of short-term raw materials and epidemic situation brings opportunities for low valuation allocation of auto parts plate.
Galaxy Securities: the central bank is expected to cut reserve requirements and stabilize growth, and the energy metal sector is expected to rebound.
Guojin Securities: the epidemic situation does not change the long-term growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the head express company.
CICC: looking forward to the quarterly inspection of Hang Seng Index, Kuaishou Technology (01024) and others may be included in the constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index.
Anxin International: maintain Great Wall Motor's (02333) buy rating and lower the target price to HK $24
CICC: maintain Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited's (01876) "outperform industry" rating, lowering the target price by 7.5% to HK $26.1
Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper
I. Macro-market
CITIC believes that GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, slightly weaker than in the third quarter of 2021, reflecting the downward pressure on economic growth. The structural characteristics are more worthy of attention: 1) on the production side, the margin of the service industry weakens, but the industry as a whole remains resilient; 2) on the demand side, infrastructure investment accelerates upward, other demand variables are impacted to varying degrees, and consumption pressure is highlighted. It should be noted that due to the relatively small proportion of indicators such as GDP and fixed asset investment in the whole year in the first quarter, there is still time and space for stable growth. With the further development of policies, the economy is expected to repair in the second or third quarter.
Haitong pointed out that the commodity prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to be arranged at high levels, which may further lead to a food crisis. the prices of some agricultural products have reached a 10-year high, and the prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. the price of crude oil is still above $100. the high price of raw materials makes the profits of downstream enterprises further compressed, have to raise prices to deal with it, and the terminal consumer demand will decline over a long time. It is not conducive to long-term sustainable development. The gem index with low continuous innovation still fluctuates near 2474 points, has not been able to get rid of the effective rebound in the region and the trading volume continues to be depressed, it will still be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out.
II. Industry plate
China International Capital Corporation believes that in this price rise, the driving effect of the cost factor on grain prices is stronger than that of fundamentals on prices. Therefore, we believe that, looking ahead, if the rise in crude oil prices is blocked, there may be limited room for agricultural prices to rise. Of course, in the context of low global inventories and less-than-expected recovery of supply, the center of gravity of agricultural prices may rise significantly for some time.
Citic Construction Investment pointed out that on the evening of April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission issued guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises resuming work and production, and proposed to implement closed-loop management on the premise of ensuring that the risks are controllable. effectively, orderly and effectively promote enterprises to resume work and production, and ensure the security and stability of the industrial chain supply chain. The first batch of enterprises to resume work and production include the automobile manufacturing industry, focusing on the intelligent automobile industry chain.
China International Capital Corporation believes that looking forward to the future, there is still room for interpretation of the stable growth target of infrastructure, focusing on undervalued stocks. Judging from the recent market performance of the construction sector, the share prices of central construction enterprises have rebounded rapidly from their lows in the past ten trading days, and the current share prices have maintained high and small fluctuations. Under the circumstances that the current economy has not stabilized and the infrastructure has not yet made full use of its strength, there is still room for deduction of the target of stable growth in the future. Stock selection suggests that we should pay attention to the stocks with high quality, sound performance and high margin of valuation; at the same time, we suggest that we should pay attention to the areas with low resistance to stable growth and high certainty of fiscal strength; in addition, we should also pay attention to the opportunities for the layout of individual stocks with medium-and long-term high growth and current valuations falling to low points.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that it is optimistic about the opportunity of relayout of 2Q auto parts, the high growth rate of the plate in the second half of the year will remain unchanged, and the expectation of increasing global competitive advantage of Chinese auto parts in the medium and long term will remain unchanged. Short-term raw materials, the impact of the epidemic brings low valuation allocation opportunities.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that under the severe domestic epidemic situation and the requirements of stable growth, monetary easing and fiscal support are expected to strengthen, the central bank cut the reserve requirement by 25 basis points, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded significantly. Under the sharp rebound of the real estate sector, the industrial metals in the upper reaches of the real estate industry chain may pick up along with the downstream demand, and the prosperity margin will rise.
Guojin Securities pointed out that the epidemic does not change the long-term growth, it is recommended to pay attention to the head express company. The demand for e-commerce consumption is still there, and when the domestic epidemic is brought under control and enters the traditional peak season in June, the suppressed consumer demand is expected to be released, and the growth rate of express delivery business is expected to reach more than 30%.
III. Individual stocks
Hang Seng Index will announce the results of the first-quarter review of the Hang Seng Index on May 20. CICC expects to pay attention to some of the new economic leaders, index expansion is likely to accelerate, based on existing data and index adjustment methods, as well as through the previous adjustment results of the systematic optimization of the compilation method of understanding and verification The bank estimates that Baidu, Inc. (09888.HK), Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK), JD Health (06618.HK), BeiGene, Ltd. (06160.HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (03692.HK), Bilibili Inc. (09626.HK) and China Gas (00384.HK) rank at the top of the Hang Seng Index and are likely to be potential candidates. In addition, the weights of HSBC Holdings PLC (00005.HK) and AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) may be passively reduced to 8 per cent from the current 8.32 per cent and 8.19 per cent, leading to potential passive capital outflows.
Anxin International released a research report, said that to maintain Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) buy rating, due to the rise in raw material prices, chip shortage, epidemic and other factors, production and sales and performance under pressure in the first quarter. The bank adjusted Great Wall Motor's net profit in 2022 / 23 to 8.9 billion / 11.8 billion and lowered its target price to HK $24, which is 118 per cent higher than the current price, corresponding to 20 times forecast earnings for 22 years. The report said the April outbreak is expected to affect the production and logistics of chips and other spare parts, and the industry will have to wait until May to improve. More than 2022 products will be on the market soon, and they are still in a strong period.
CICC said in a research report that the company is also experiencing the test of rising costs, but its ability to control costs and raise prices is better than that of the industry, or the final cost increase is lower than that of the industry. As each cost price continues to rise, the company's 1Q22 gross profit margin and EBITDA profit margin are under pressure, CICC estimates that 1Q22EBITDA profit margin is basically the same as the same period. However, due to the high efficiency of operation and procurement, and relying on the bargaining power of Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA, the world's largest beer company, it is believed that the upward pressure on costs throughout the year will be significantly less than that of the local beer leader.
