欧股休市，交投清淡，美股波动后收跌，软件领跌科技股，芯片股反弹，特斯拉涨2%，推特涨7.5%。市场评估通胀和加息，10年期美债收益率刷新三年高位，收益率曲线均结束倒挂。受加息预期提振，美元再创两年新高，货币政策分野，日元下逼127续创20年最低，欧元逼近两年新低。大宗商品涨价潮持续施压通胀，供应紧张推升美油一度突破109美元、布油升破114美元，美天然气创逾13年高位，黄金五周新高并上逼2000美元，玉米期货近10年来首次突破每蒲式耳8美元。
英国、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙等欧洲国家的证券交易所周一因复活节而休市。
由于俄乌冲突，世界银行下调今年全球经济增速展望接近1个百分点至3.2%，比新冠疫情时期更多的1700亿美元援助计划呼之欲出。
纽约联储的调查显示，美国按揭贷款利率和房价同步上涨使潜在购房者望而却步。美国4月NAHB房产市场指数为77，表明住房开发商的信心连续第四个月下降。
拜登政府官员称，即使俄罗斯参加本周在美国首都华盛顿举行的20国集团财长会议，美国财长耶伦也不会自动抵制这些会议，她将参加对乌克兰战争带来经济影响的部分讨论。
本周至少五位美联储官员发表讲话，投资者关注能否提供5月大幅加息50个基点的暗示。其中，美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德周四将在IMF春季年会上讨论全球经济。
交投清淡美股波动后收跌，软件领跌科技股，芯片股反弹，特斯拉涨2%，推特涨7.5%
4月18日周一，因欧股休市，美股整体交投清淡。俄乌冲突持续发酵，俄罗斯交易系统现金指数RTS（美元计价）和莫斯科交易所（MOEX）指数均收跌超3%。
投资者关注本周开始进入密集发布期的美股财报季，以及美联储加快收紧货币政策的前景和通胀走势。美股全天在涨跌之间波动不安，因美债收益率走高而承压。
美股三大指数小幅低开，科技股居多的纳指走势明显不如迅速转涨的道指和标普500指数大盘。开盘两小时内，美股曾集体转涨，但随后再度掉头齐跌，生物科技板块表现最差。
午盘后三大指数短暂转涨，罗素2000小盘股全天保持跌势。道指盘初跌近140点或跌0.4%，转涨后一度涨0.4%或逾127点。标普跌0.5%后转涨，触及日高并涨0.4%。纳指盘初跌129点或跌约1%，短暂失守1.33万点，转涨后一度涨0.3%，在主要股指中反弹力度相对较差。
不过，美股最终集体收跌，标普和纳指重回一个月低位，道指也无缘一周新高。道指收跌39.54点，跌幅0.11%，报34411.69点。标普500指数收跌0.90点，跌幅0.02%，报4391.69点。纳综指收跌18.72点，跌幅0.14%，报13332.36点。价值股居多的罗素2000跌0.74%。
素来以毒舌著称的金融博客Zerohedge表示，2022年与2008年的美股走势似乎越来越像。
标普11个板块涨跌互见，医疗保健板块跌超1.1%表现最差，莫德纳收跌逾6%，但能源板块涨超1.5%，信息技术和可选消费板块涨超0.3%，金融板块涨超0.6%。
大型科技股盘初较差，但尾盘仅苹果和奈飞收跌。「元宇宙」Meta、亚马逊、苹果盘中均跌约1%，微软一度跌0.4%，谷歌母公司Alphabet一度跌0.5%，周二盘后公布财报的奈飞一度跌近3%。
特斯拉跌0.1%后转涨并涨2.5%，收涨约2%，从一周低位反弹并重回1000美元上方，德媒称公司今年将在德国生产3万辆电动汽车，还将于周三盘后公布财报。
在公布阻击特斯拉CEO马斯克恶意收购的「毒丸计划」后，社交媒体巨头推特周一大涨7.5%，至4月6日来的近两周最高。马斯克称推特董事会的经济利益与股东不一致。
美国银行涨超3%，受投行业务拖累，一季度净利虽同比下滑12%，但与营收均好于预期，符合其他大型银行的财报趋势。
费城半导体指数涨约2%，英伟达一度涨超3%。软件公司领跌科技股，Datadog、Zoom Video 和 DocuSign均一度跌约6%。伴随气价大涨，天然气EQT Corp. 和Coterra Energy均创52周新高。
油气板块涨幅居前，美国能源涨超4%，西方石油、墨菲石油涨超3%。
电动汽车制造商表现不佳，Lordstown Motors一度跌超6%，与Lucid均收跌超3%，Rivian一度跌超8%，收跌近6%，Rivian首席执行官还警告电动汽车行业的电池短缺迫在眉睫。
热门中概股多数下挫，中概ETF KWEB和CQQQ分别收跌约1.9%和0.8%，纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）跌2%。纳斯达克100的四只成份股中，拼多多微跌，百度跌超2%，但京东涨1.7%，网易跌1.7%。其他个股中，滴滴跌超18%，达达集团跌11%，爱奇艺和金山云跌超9%，B站跌超6%，此外，蘑菇街涨近3%，怪兽充电涨超6.6%。
分析指出，美债收益率飙升和债市高波动性正给股市带来压力，并引发人们对衰退即将到来的担忧。美股大空头摩根士丹利认为，高通胀已转为盈利负面因素，一季度财报或比预期更令人失望。高盛预计美国经济「软着陆」很难，未来12个月衰退的几率约为15%，两年内几率升至35%。
市场评估通胀和加息，10年期美债收益率刷新三年高位，收益率曲线结束倒挂
各期限美债收益率周一普涨，长端收益率涨势更猛，美债收益率曲线均结束倒挂。10年期美债收益率周一盘中最高升7.6个基点，至2.884%的2018年12月以来最高，3月初还交投在1.71%。
对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内最高升7个基点，至2.514%的一周高位，美股尾盘收益率转跌。30年期长债收益率一度升逾5个基点，上逼2.97%，刷新2019年5月来高位。
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金融博客Zerohedge表示，目前关键的衰退前瞻指标：两年/10年期美债收益率息差重回正值且扩大至40多个基点，7年/10年期美债收益率也结束倒挂。
受加息预期提振，美元再创两年新高，货币政策分野，日元下逼127续创20年最低
美元周一在清淡和震荡的交易中小幅走高，与美国国债收益率上行趋势一致，反映投资者持续在为5月美联储宣布加息50个基点做准备，期货市场目前对此计价入96%的可能性。
衡量美元兑六种主要货币的一篮子美元指数最高涨0.5%，日高至100.86，站稳100关口上方并刷新2020年4月以来的两年高位。
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亚盘时段日元兑美元刷新20年新低并下逼127关口，随后日本央行行长和财长均表达对日元贬值的担忧，日元兑美元一度转涨至126.25，美股盘中再度下跌0.5%并失守126.90。
分析指出，在日本央行改变其极端鸽派的立场之前，货币政策分歧代表日元兑美元将持续疲软，甚至逼近2002年的低位135.15附近，日元已连跌六周，比3月初低了近10%，上周跌近2%。
欧元兑美元跌0.2%并失守1.08关口，日低逼近上周所创的两年低位，主要由于欧洲央行何时加息仍不明朗。澳元兑美元跌至一个月最低。
供应紧张推升美油一度突破109美元布油破114美元，美天然气创逾13年高位
WTI 5月原油期货收涨1.26美元，涨幅1.18%，报108.21美元/桶。布伦特6月原油期货收涨1.46美元，涨幅1.31%，报113.16美元/桶。
美油WTI 日内接连升破107至109美元三道整数位，最高涨2.86美元或涨2.7%，创3月28日来最高，完全收复3月31日白宫宣布「美国史上最大规模战略油储释放」以来的跌幅。
布油日内接连升破112至114美元三道整数位，甚至上逼115美元，最高涨3.13美元或涨2.8%，也创3月28日来高位。利比亚主要油田停产，加深了俄乌冲突之下市场对全球供应紧张的担忧。
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NYMEX美国天然气5月期货收涨7.12%，报7.8200美元/百万英热单位，上周涨约16.30%。周一盘中曾涨超10%，创2008年9月以来的逾13年新高，也是2008年以来首次涨穿8美元。
美国天然气此前已连涨五周，上周四个交易日均持续刷新逾13年高位，俄乌冲突导致全球能源供应紧缩，对欧洲创纪录的LNG出口和春季预测气温较低均提振需求。今年美国气价已翻倍，有分析预计到夏天仍有可能继续显著上涨，能源成本飙升的同时也凸显了通胀担忧。
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大宗商品涨价潮持续，黄金五周高位上逼2000美元，玉米期货近十年新高
COMEX 6月黄金期货收涨0.6%，报1986.40美元/盎司。
现货金价日内最高涨近25美元或涨1.3%，日高升破1998美元，创3月11日以来的五周高位，上周五时黄金曾止步五连阳并跌落一个月新高，但上周累涨。
分析称，对俄乌冲突和通胀压力上升的担忧增加了对贵金属的避险买盘，但若美国实际收益率转为正值，黄金未来维持在2000美元上方的能力有限，债市收益率抬升增加持有黄金的机会成本。
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现货白银一度涨超2%并短暂升破26美元整数位，创3月9日来最高，铂金一度涨超3%至3月25日来最高，钯金一度涨超4%重回一周高位，主要受到俄乌冲突导致的供应中断担忧影响。
粮食大宗商品也持续上涨。因供应问题，美国CBOT 7月玉米期货涨2.8%，突破每蒲式耳8美元，创2012年9月以来的近十年新高，较年初的6美元上涨1/3。
分析称，俄乌冲突持续、乌克兰玉米产量接近腰斩、美国转向「烧玉米」降低汽油价格以及玉米播种意向低于预期，暴风雪和严寒天气造成加拿大播种被延迟等，都令玉米涨势远未结束。
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同时，CBOT美国小麦期货涨超2%，CBOT大豆期货涨约2%，豆粕期货涨约1%，豆油期货涨超1%，CBOT软木期货和CBOT瘦肉猪期货涨超3%。ICE原糖、白糖、阿拉比卡咖啡、棉花均涨。
内盘期货夜市多数收涨，甲醇、纯碱、PP涨超2%。沪镍夜盘收涨逾5%，沪锡涨超2%，不锈钢涨超3.7%。甲醇、纯碱、PP涨超2%，铁矿石涨超1%，焦炭涨1.9%，焦煤和动力煤涨约1%。
European stocks were closed, trading was light, US stocks closed down after volatility, software led technology stocks down, chip stocks rebounded, Tesla, Inc. rose 2 per cent and Twitter rose 7.5 per cent. The market assessed inflation and interest rate hikes, 10-year Treasury yields hit three-year highs and the yield curve ended upside down. Buoyed by expectations of an interest rate hike, the dollar hit a two-year high and monetary policy divided, with the yen pushing 127 to a 20-year low and the euro nearing a two-year low. The rising tide of commodity prices continued to put pressure on inflation, with tight supply pushing up US oil above US $109and cloth oil above US $114at one time, US natural gas reaching a more than 13-year high, gold reaching a five-week high of US $2000, and corn futures exceeding US $8 a bushel for the first time in nearly a decade.
Stock exchanges in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and other European countries were closed Monday for Easter.
As a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the World Bank has cut its global economic growth forecast for this year by nearly 1 percentage point to 3.2%, and a $170 billion aid package more than during the COVID-19 epidemic is looming.
The simultaneous rise in US mortgage rates and house prices has deterred potential home buyers, according to a survey by the New York Federal Reserve. The US NAHB housing market index for April was 77, indicating that confidence among housing developers fell for the fourth month in a row.
Biden administration officials said that even if Russia attends the G-20 finance ministers' meeting in Washington this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will not automatically boycott these meetings. She will participate in part of the discussion on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine.
At least five Fed officials spoke this week as investors focused on whether they could provide a hint of a big 50 basis point increase in interest rates in May. Among them, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will discuss the global economy at the IMF spring annual meeting on Thursday.
After light trading, US stocks closed down, software led technology stocks down, chip stocks rebounded, Tesla, Inc. rose 2%, Twitter rose 7.5%.
On Monday, April 18, trading in US stocks was light as a result of the closure of European stocks. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, with the Russian trading system cash index RTS (dollar-denominated) and the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) index both closing down more than 3 per cent.
Investors are concerned about the earnings season for US stocks, which began a period of intensive issuance this week, as well as the prospect and inflation of the Fed's accelerated monetary tightening. U. S. stocks fluctuated between ups and downs throughout the day, under pressure from higher U. S. bond yields.
The three major indexes of US stocks opened slightly lower, while the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, is obviously not as good as the rapidly rising Dow and S & P 500. Us stocks rose collectively in the first two hours of trading, but then turned around and fell again, with the biotechnology sector among the worst performers.
The three major indexes briefly rose after midday, while Russell 2000 small-cap stocks remained down throughout the day. The Dow fell nearly 140 points or 0.4% at the start of the session, but rose 0.4% or more than 127 points at one point after rising. S & p fell 0.5% and then rose, hitting a session high and up 0.4%. The Nasdaq fell 129 points or about 1% at the beginning of the session, briefly lost 13300 points, rose 0.3% at one point after rising, and rebounded relatively poorly in the main stock index.
However, U. S. stocks eventually closed lower, the S & P and the Nasdaq returned to one-month lows, and the Dow missed one-week highs.The Dow closed down 39.54 points, or 0.11%, at 34411.69. The S & P 500 closed down 90 points, or 0.02%, at 4391.69. The Nasdaq index closed down 18.72 points, or 0.14%, at 13332.36. Russell, which has the majority of value stocks, fell 0.74 per cent in 2000.
Zerohedge, a financial blog known for its venomous tongue, says US stocks seem to be moving more and more alike in 2022 and 2008.
Standard & Poor's 11 sectors are mixed, health care sector fell more than 1.1%, Modena closed down more than 6%, but the energy sector rose more than 1.5%, information technology and optional consumer sectors rose more than 0.3%, and the financial sector rose more than 0.6%.
Large-scale technology stocks were poor at the beginning of the session, but only Apple Inc and Netflix Inc closed down in late trading.Yuan Universe Meta, Amazon.Com Inc and Apple Inc all fell about 1 per cent in intraday trading, Microsoft Corp fell 0.4 per cent at one point, Alphabet, Alphabet Inc-CL C's parent company, fell 0.5 per cent at one point, and Netflix Inc, who announced results on Tuesday, fell nearly 3 per cent.
Tesla, Inc. fell 0.1% and rose 2.5% to close about 2%, rebounding from an one-week low and back above $1000. German media said the company would produce 30, 000 electric cars in Germany this year and report results after trading on Wednesday.
Social media giant Twitter surged 7.5% on Monday to its highest level in nearly two weeks after announcing a "poison pill" to block a hostile takeover by Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk. Musk said the economic interests of Twitter's board of directors were not consistent with those of shareholders.
Bank of America Corporation rose more than 3%, dragged down by investment banking business, although the first quarter net profit fell 12% compared with the same period last year, but the revenue is better than expected, in line with the financial reporting trend of other large banks.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose about 2 per cent, and NVIDIA Corp rose more than 3 per cent at one point. Software companies led the decline in technology stocks, with Datadog, Zoom Video and DocuSign all down about 6 per cent at one point. With the sharp rise in gas prices, natural gas EQT Corp. And Coterra Energy both reached 52-week highs.
The oil and gas sector led the gains, with the US energy up more than 4 per cent, while Western oil and Murphy oil rose more than 3 per cent.
Electric car manufacturers are not performing well.At one point, Lordstown Motors fell more than 6%, and Lucid both closed down more than 3%. At one point, the CEO closed down nearly 6%, and the chief executive warned of an imminent battery shortage in the electric car industry.
Most popular US-listed stocks fell, with ETF KWEB and CQQQ closing down about 1.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 2 per cent. Of the four constituent stocks on the Nasdaq, Pinduoduo fell slightly, Baidu, Inc. fell more than 2%, but JD.com rose 1.7% and NetEase, Inc fell 1.7%. Among other stocks, DiDi Global Inc. is down more than 18%, Dada Nexus Limited is down 11%, iQIYI, Inc. and Jinshan Yun are down more than 9%, and Station B is down more than 6%. In addition, Mogu Inc is up nearly 3% and Energy Monster is up more than 6.6%.
Analysts point out that soaring US bond yields and high volatility in the bond market are putting pressure on stocks and raising fears of an impending recession. Morgan Stanley, a big short seller in US stocks, believes that high inflation has turned into a negative factor in earnings, and the first-quarter results may be more disappointing than expected. Goldman Sachs Group expects a "soft landing" for the US economy to be difficult, with a 15 per cent chance of a recession in the next 12 months and a 35 per cent chance within two years.
The market assesses inflation and interest rate hikes, 10-year Treasury yields hit a three-year high and the yield curve ends upside down
Yields on all maturities rose on Monday, long-end yields rose even more sharply, and the yield curve ended upside down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose as high as 7.6 basis points on Monday to 2.884 per cent, the highest since December 2018, and traded at 1.71 per cent in early March.
Yields on two-year Treasuries, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, rose as much as 7 basis points on the day to an one-week high of 2.514 per cent, while US stocks fell in late trading. At one point, the yield on 30-year bonds rose more than 5 basis points to 2.97 per cent, setting a new high since May 2019.
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According to the financial blog Zerohedge, the current key recession outlook indicator: two-year / 10-year Treasury yield spreads have returned to positive and widened to more than 40 basis points, and 7-year / 10-year Treasury yields have ended upside down.
Boosted by expectations of an interest rate hike, the dollar hit a two-year high, monetary policy divided, and the yen forced 127 to hit a 20-year low
The dollar edged higher in light and volatile trading on Monday, in line with the upward trend in Treasury yields, reflecting the continued preparation of investors for a 50 basis point rate hike announced by the Federal Reserve in May, which is now priced at 96 per cent in the futures market.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose as much as 0.5 per cent to a daily high of 100.86, holding steady above the 100 mark and setting a two-year high since April 2020.
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After the yen hit a 20-year low against the dollar and pushed down the 127th mark in Asian trading, both the governor of the Bank of Japan and the finance minister expressed concern about the depreciation of the yen, which rose to 126.25 against the dollar at one point, while US stocks fell another 0.5 per cent and lost 126.90 in intraday trading.
Analysts pointed out that before the Bank of Japan changed its extreme dovish position, monetary policy differences meant that the yen would remain weak against the dollar, even approaching a low of 135.15 in 2002. The yen has fallen for six consecutive weeks, nearly 10% lower than in early March and nearly 2% last week.
The euro fell 0.2 per cent against the dollar and fell below the 1.08 mark, with the session low approaching a two-year low set last week, mainly because it is still unclear when the ECB will raise interest rates. The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level in a month against the US dollar.
Tight supply pushed up US oil once exceeded US $109, cloth oil exceeded US $114, and US natural gas reached a 13-year high.
WTI may crude oil futures closed up $1.26, or 1.18%, at $108.21 a barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed up $1.46, or 1.31%, at $113.16 a barrel.
Us Oil WTI broke through three integer figures of US $107 to US $109 in a row, rising as high as US $2.86 or 2.7%, the highest since March 28, and fully recovering the decline since the White House announced the "largest strategic oil reserve release in US history" on March 31.
In a row, the oil distribution broke through the three integer figures of 112 to 114 US dollars, and even forced 115 US dollars, up to 3.13 US dollars, or 2.8%, the highest level since March 28. The shutdown of Libya's main oil fields has deepened concerns about global supply constraints in the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
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NYMEX us natural gas may futures closed up 7.12 per cent at $7.8200 per million British thermal units, up about 16.30 per cent last week. It rose more than 10% in intraday trading on Monday, the highest level in more than 13 years since September 2008, and broke through $8 for the first time since 2008.
Us natural gas, which has risen for five weeks, hit a more than 13-year high in four trading days last week as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine tightened global energy supplies and boosted demand for record LNG exports to Europe and low spring temperatures. Us gas prices have doubled this year, and some analysts expect them to continue to rise significantly in the summer, highlighting inflation concerns as energy costs soar.
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The rising tide of commodity prices continued, with gold hitting a five-week high of US $2000 and corn futures reaching a 10-year high.
COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.6% at $1986.40 an ounce.
Spot gold prices rose as high as nearly $25, or 1.3%, on the day, rising above $1998, a five-week high since March 11. Gold stopped five consecutive days and fell to an one-month high on Friday, but rose last week.
According to the analysis, concerns about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising inflationary pressures have increased safe-haven buying of precious metals, but if the real yield in the United States turns positive, the ability of gold to remain above $2000 in the future is limited, and the rise in bond market yields increases the opportunity cost of holding gold.
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Spot silver rose more than 2% and briefly broke the integer figure of $26, the highest since March 9, platinum rose more than 3% to the highest level since March 25, and palladium rose more than 4% to return to an one-week high, mainly affected by concerns about supply disruptions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Food commodities also continued to rise. Due to supply problems, US CBOT July corn futures rose 2.8% to break through US $8 a bushel, the highest level in nearly a decade since September 2012, and up 1% from US $6 at the beginning of the year.
The analysis said that the continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the near halving of Ukraine's corn production, the US shift to "burning corn" to reduce gasoline prices, the lower-than-expected intention to sow corn, and the delay of sowing in Canada caused by snowstorms and cold weather, the corn rally is far from over.
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At the same time, CBOT US wheat futures rose more than 2%, soybean meal futures rose about 1%, soybean oil futures rose more than 1% CBOT cork futures and CBOT lean pig futures rose more than 3%. ICE raw sugar, white sugar, Arabica coffee and cotton all rose.
Most of the inner market futures night markets closed higher, with methanol, soda ash and PP up more than 2%. Shanghai nickel night trading closed up more than 5%, Shanghai tin rose more than 2%, and stainless steel rose more than 3.7%. Methanol, soda ash and PP rose by more than 2%, iron ore by more than 1%, coke by 1.9%, and coking coal and thermal coal by about 1%.
