
全球宏观

德国、英国等欧洲主要市场今日因复活节星期一休市。
随着美国国债收益率触及「有史以来最重要的趋势线」,债券市场长达40年的牛市正面临压力。Worth charting公司的技术分析师Carter Braxton Worth表示,随着10年期美国国债收益率触及「有史以来最重要的趋势线」的阻力位,持续40年的利率下降趋势可能即将结束。
![c4ab32c9-0dbb-469e-9a69-43e617c6183e.png]()
周一(4月18日),现货黄金上涨近1%,创3月11日以来新高至1993.83美元/盎司。乌克兰战争持续,强化了市场避险情绪,并进一步加剧高通胀。美联储为对抗通胀被迫加快收水,也可能加速经济衰退的到来。
![big]()
当地时间18日,俄罗斯总统普京表示,俄罗斯承受住了来自西方前所未有的压力。普京称,西方国家试图通过经济制裁瓦解俄罗斯的银行体系,造成俄国内商品短缺,但是他们的企图失败了。俄罗斯中央银行行长纳比乌琳娜表示,已有来自12个国家的52个外国组织加入了俄罗斯建立的类似SWIFT的系统。
![logo]()
当地时间17日,乌克兰总统泽连斯基发表讲话称,西方必须对俄罗斯整个银行系统实施制裁,以应对俄方试图在赫尔松和扎波罗热两州建立卢布支付体系。目前,俄方对此暂无回应。当地时间18日,乌克兰利沃夫再次拉响防空警报。
![logo]()
热点要闻
当地时间周五,$Twitter(TWTR.US)$在新闻稿中宣布,公司董事会一致通过了一项限期的股东权利计划,以减少其他实体通过公开市场积累获得公司控制权的可能性。新闻稿称,如果实体、个人或团体在未经董事会批准的交易中获得推特已发行普通股15%或更多的股权,则该权利将生效。根据权利计划,其他股东将被允许以市场价50%的价格购买额外的普通股股份。权利计划将持续一年,于2023年4月14日到期。有关该计划的更多细节将提交给美国证券交易委员会,目前这份8-K文件尚未公开。
![]()
据知情人士透露,特斯拉上海工厂已经恢复生产,并对在闭环系统内工作的员工制定了严格的防疫措施。特斯拉发给员工的一份备忘录显示,将向每位员工提供一个睡袋和床垫。备忘录显示,鉴于没有专门建造的宿舍,员工将被要求在指定区域睡眠,还将有其他空间用于淋浴、娱乐(两项设施尚未完工)和就餐。一位知情人士称,公司将为员工提供三餐以及每天约400元人民币(63美元)的津贴,但实际金额将取决于职位和级别。
据当地媒体报道,美国加利福尼亚北区联邦地区法院在四月初认定,时任特斯拉CEO的马斯克在2018年有关「确保私有化资金」的公开表态是「虚假且具有误导性」的。法院认定马斯克在明知其虚假的情况下鲁莽地做出了这些陈述。据悉,法庭定于五月审理有关投资者损害赔偿的诉求,原告方已经提出动议,要求限制马斯克继续在公开场合谈论这一问题。
受疫情影响,$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$上海工厂已停产近三周。按每天约2,100辆汽车的生产率计算,自3月28日停产以来,该工厂产量比计划减少了大约39,900辆。纽约调研公司JL Warren Capital创始人兼首席执行官Junheng Li表示:「我们对重新开工的基本预期是在5月的第一周。」在这一预期下,Li估计特斯拉汽车产量可能会比计划减少大约8.4万辆。Li补充道,如果周边城市也实施封锁措施,这可能会影响该工厂的汽车零部件供应,特斯拉的产量可能会进一步减少。不过,工厂的重新开放也可能会按顺序进行,恢复后的产能将「取决于特斯拉能获得的零部件供应」。
据报道,$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$已经停止向购买新车的客户免费赠送移动充电器。随后特斯拉CEO马斯克表示:「统计数字显示,移动充电器的利用率超低,似乎是一种浪费。好的方面是,我们将在移动充电器套件中增加更多的插头适配器。」特斯拉官网显示,移动充电器当前状态为缺货。马斯克还称,「我们将根据此前收到的反馈,将移动充电器的价格降至200美元,并让订购过程变得更简单。如果车主拥有特斯拉壁挂式充电桩或是使用超级充电站,就不需要移动充电器。我们推荐在车辆交付之前,先安装特斯拉壁挂式充电桩。」
ARK基金创始人凯西.伍德将特斯拉2026年目标价定为4600美元,此前给予特斯拉2025年目标价为3000美元。伍德预计,特斯拉销售额年增长率将达到75%,远高于华尔街普遍预期的25%。ARK分析师Tasha Keeney预测,未来自动驾驶出租车业务将为特斯拉贡献一半以上的未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的利润(Ebitda)。在此模型下,ARK基金预计,到2026年,特斯拉总销售额将达到8,430亿美元,其中2,840亿美元将来自动驾驶出租车业务。
据外媒报道,分析师此前曾预计,$苹果(AAPL.US)$将于明年推出的iPhone 15系列智能手机中的部分机型,有望配备潜望式摄像头,支持10倍光学变焦。最新报道显示,韩国的摄像头模组零部件供应商磁化电子上周已宣布将投资1910亿韩元(约1.55亿)美元建设一座新工厂,以生产全新的光学稳定器。有消息称,磁化电子新工厂所生产的光学稳定器将用于未来的iPhone。而苹果在明年就将决定是否采用。
4月18日美股盘前,$美国银行(BAC.US)$公布2022年第一季度业绩。财报显示,美国银行一季度营收(扣除利息费用后)为232亿美元,超出市场预期,同比增长2%;净利润为71亿美元,上年同期为81亿美元;摊薄后每股收益为0.80美元,超出市场预期,上年同期为0.86美元。财报显示,一季度净利息收入116亿美元,同比增长13%;非利息收入117亿美元,同比下降8%。本季度释放了3.62亿美元的信贷损失准备金,上年同期释放了27亿美元。一季度平均存款增加2400亿美元,至2万亿美元,增幅13%。一季度普通股一级资本比率(CET1)为 10.4%。
![]()
据外媒报道,$优步(UBER.US)$将把日本乐天集团(Rakuten Group Inc.)的支付服务整合到其在日本的Uber Eats以及其他的Uber手机应用业务中。两家公司周一表示,与Uber Eats的整合将在本月底前分阶段推出,这将允许乐天账户持有人在没有Uber账户的情况下登录Uber Eats,同时,可以在使用该应用时赚取和使用他们的Rakuten Points。
在富国银行公布Q1财报后,高盛分析师Richard Ramsden维持$富国银行(WFC.US)$中性评级,目标价从54美元上调至56美元。Ramsden表示,富国银行的核心拨备前净收入比预期差了16%,原因是核心费用收入较弱,支出增加,抵消了内部的NII,但这被更具建设性的前瞻性指引所抵消,后者「比预期强劲得多」。
Truist分析师Neal Dingmann维持对$戴文能源(DVN.US)$的买入评级,目标价上调至80美元。该分析师表示,戴文能源在与Truist的会议上表现出了运营和财务上的信心,「他们对股东的实质性回报计划没有任何改变,可能再次支付经调整后自由现金流的90%以上」。他表示,即使到2022年下半年油田服务价格可能会上涨,但戴文能源「似乎仍将处于行业领先地位,并将确保不会出现生产瓶颈或成本飙升」。他同时指出,在第一季度产量可能下滑之后,戴文能源对于产量在第二季度反弹并保持稳定有信心。
摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas重申了对$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$的增持评级和1300美元的目标价。Adam相信,特斯拉在重新构建可再生能源/运输业方面将发挥关键作用,而其传统汽车业务具有天然优势:1)直接面向消费者的优势;2)数万亿美元的电池资本支出周期,估计在未来20年内必须花费多达20至40万亿美元的累积资本支出和研发费用,以实现脱离化石燃料,而这一数额的仅有1%已被花费,已被分配也不到3%。Adam说,"我们认为特斯拉是终极电池资本支出游戏" , "按照8千万美元每千兆瓦时的成本计算,仅电池制造所需的资本支出就可能在1.5至3万亿美元,再加上其他相关方面,潜在支出可能在20年内达到10万亿至20万亿美元或更多。"
聚焦中概股
![]()
滴滴4月16日晚间发布2021年第四季度财报。2021年第四季度滴滴总收入407.8亿元人民币,同比下降12.7%;第四季度净亏损1.71亿元,上年同期亏损72.3亿元;第四季度中国出行业务总收入374.7亿元,同比下降15.1%;第四季度国际业务收入10.5亿元,同比增长51.2%。公司同时宣布,将在5月23日召开股东大会,就美国存托股票退市事宜进行投票。截至发稿,滴滴盘前跌19.11%。
$搜狐(SOHU.US)$创始人、董事局主席兼首席执行官张朝阳发布朋友圈称,搜狐公司没有要退市,「一些自媒体作者知其一不知其二,洋洋洒洒写文章唱衰搜狐,还对我直播物理课进行讥讽,实在没有必要。」搜狐此前发布公告称,4月12日公司被美国证券交易委员会(SEC)列入基于《外国公司问责法案》(HFCAA)的临时认定名单,公司不打算对SEC的临时认定提出异议。
天眼查App显示,近日,「嘀嗒出行」关联公司北京畅行信息技术有限公司发生工商变更,$蔚来(NIO.US)$CEO李斌卸任公司董事,此前,李斌于2015年出任其高管职务。官网信息显示,嘀嗒出行为互联网出行平台,提供出租车、顺风车服务。
4月18日,蔚来换电站南京江宁欧尚正式上线。据悉,蔚来已在全国累计建成900座换电站,蔚来用户累计换电超800万次。蔚来表示,未来将持续布局,2022年将在中国市场累计建成1300+座换电站、6000+根超充桩、10000+根目的地充电桩。
4月18日,据自媒体「新熵」报道,有接近B站的匿名人士表示,$哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)$直播业务部门计划裁员,名单已初步拟好,待上海地区恢复正常后进行裁员约谈,本次裁员将波及整个直播部门。针对上述消息,B站方面回应界面新闻称,「直播业务情况很好,毛利连续三年在提升,未来是B站最重要的业务之一,目前在积极对外招聘。」
美股盘前成交额TOP20
![]()
美国宏观事例提醒
22:00 美国4月NAHB房产市场指数
次日04:00 美国圣路易斯联储主席布拉德谈经济和货币政策

Global macro

Major European markets such as Germany and the UK are closed today for Easter Monday.
The 40-year bull market in the bond market is under pressure as Treasury yields hit the "most important trend line in history". The 40-year downward trend in interest rates may be coming to an end as 10-year Treasury yields hit the resistance level of "the most important trend line in history," said Carter Braxton Worth, a technical analyst at Worth charting.
![c4ab32c9-0dbb-469e-9a69-43e617c6183e.png]()
On Monday, spot gold rose nearly 1%, reaching a new high of $1993.83 an ounce since March 11. The war in Ukraine continues, strengthening risk aversion in the market and further exacerbating high inflation. The Fed is forced to speed up water collection to fight inflation, which may also accelerate the arrival of a recession.
![big]()
On the 18th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has withstood unprecedented pressure from the West. Putin said that Western countries tried to disrupt Russia's banking system through economic sanctions, resulting in a shortage of domestic goods, but their attempt failed. Nabi Ulina, governor of Russia's central bank, said 52 foreign organizations from 12 countries had joined Russia's SWIFT-like system.
![logo]()
Ukrainian President Zelansky said in a speech on the 17th local time that the West must impose sanctions on the entire Russian banking system in response to Russia's attempt to establish a ruble payment system in the states of Helsson and Zaporge. At present, the Russian side has not responded to this temporarily. Local time 18, Lviv, Ukraine once again sounded the air defense alarm.
![logo]()
Hot news
Friday local time$Twitter (TWTR.US) $The company's board of directors unanimously approved a time-limited shareholder rights plan to reduce the likelihood that other entities will gain control of the company through open market accumulation, it was announced in a press release. The right will take effect if an entity, individual or group acquires a 15% or more stake in Twitter's issued common shares in a transaction that is not approved by the board of directors, according to the press release. Under the entitlement plan, other shareholders will be allowed to buy additional common shares at 50% of the market price. The entitlement plan will last for one year and expire on April 14, 2023. More details about the plan will be submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the 8murk document has not yet been made public.
![]()
Tesla, Inc. 's Shanghai plant has resumed production and has put in place strict epidemic prevention measures for employees working in the closed-loop system, according to people familiar with the matter. According to a memo sent to employees by Tesla, Inc., each employee will be provided with a sleeping bag and mattress. In the absence of specially built dormitories, employees will be required to sleep in designated areas and there will be other space for showers, entertainment (two facilities have not yet been completed) and dining, according to the memo. The company will provide employees with three meals and a daily allowance of about 400 yuan ($63), but the actual amount will depend on position and level, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The Federal District Court for the Northern District of California ruled in early April that Musk, then Tesla, Inc. CEO, made a public statement about "ensuring privatization funds" in 2018 as "false and misleading", according to local media reports. The court found that Musk made these statements recklessly in the knowledge that he was false. It is reported that the court is scheduled to hear claims for investor damages in May, and the plaintiff has filed a motion to restrict Musk from continuing to talk about the issue in public.
The factory continues to stop production, and the output of Tesla, Inc. electric vehicles is likely to be nearly 40, 000 units less than planned.
Be affected by the epidemic situation$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The Shanghai factory has stopped production for nearly three weeks. Based on a productivity of about 2100 cars a day, the plant has reduced production by about 39900 vehicles than planned since the shutdown on March 28. Junheng Li, founder and CEO of JL Warren Capital, a New York-based research firm, said: "our basic expectation for a resumption of work is in the first week of May. In this expectation, Li estimates that Tesla, Inc. 's car production may be about 84000 fewer than planned. Li added that if the surrounding cities also impose blockades, this may affect the supply of auto parts at the plant, and Tesla, Inc. 's production may be further reduced. However, the reopening of the plant may also be carried out sequentially, and the restored capacity will "depend on the supply of spare parts available to Tesla, Inc.".
According to reports,$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $It has stopped giving away free mobile chargers to customers who buy new cars. Then Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk said: "Statistics show that the utilization rate of mobile chargers is so low that it seems to be a waste." On the plus side, we will add more plug adapters to the mobile charger kit. Tesla, Inc. 's official website shows that the mobile charger is currently out of stock. Musk also said, "based on the feedback we have received, we will reduce the price of the mobile charger to $200 and make the ordering process easier. If the car owner owns a Tesla, Inc. wall-mounted charging pile or uses a super charging station, there is no need to move the charger. We recommend that Tesla, Inc. wall-mounted charging piles be installed before the vehicle is delivered. "
Casey, founder of ARK fund. Wood set a target price of $4600 for Tesla, Inc. in 2026, after giving Tesla, Inc. a target price of $3000 in 2025. Mr Wood expects Tesla, Inc. 's sales to grow at an annual rate of 75 per cent, much higher than the 25 per cent widely expected on Wall Street. Tasha Keeney, an analyst at ARK, predicts that in the future, the self-driving taxi business will contribute more than half of Tesla, Inc. 's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). Under this model, the ARK Fund predicts that Tesla, Inc. 's total sales will reach $843 billion by 2026, of which $284 billion will be in the future self-driving taxi business.
According to foreign media reports, analysts had expected$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Some models of the iPhone 15 series of smartphones to be launched next year are expected to be equipped with periscope cameras and support 10x optical zoom. Magnetized Electronics, a South Korean supplier of camera module components, announced last week that it would invest 191 billion won (about 155 million) US dollars in a new factory to produce brand new optical stabilizers, according to the latest report. It is reported that the optical stabilizer produced by the new magnetized electronics factory will be used in the future iPhone. Apple Inc will decide whether to adopt it or not next year.
Before the US stock market opened on April 18th$Bank of America Corporation (BAC.US) $Announce results for the first quarter of 2022. According to the financial report, Bank of America Corporation's first-quarter revenue (excluding interest charges) was $23.2 billion, exceeding market expectations and up 2% year-on-year; net profit was $7.1 billion, compared with $8.1 billion in the same period last year; and diluted earnings per share was $0.80, exceeding market expectations. 86 dollars in the same period last year. Net interest income in the first quarter was $11.6 billion, up 13 per cent from a year earlier, while non-interest income was $11.7 billion, down 8 per cent from a year earlier, according to the financial report. A $362 million provision for credit losses was released in the quarter, compared with $2.7 billion in the same period last year. Average deposits rose by $240 billion, or 13%, to $2, 000bn in the first quarter. The common equity tier one capital ratio (CET1) was 10.4% in the first quarter.
![]()
According to foreign media reports$UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC (UBER.US) $Japan's Rakuten Group (Rakuten Group Inc.) Its payment services are integrated into its Uber Eats and other Uber mobile applications in Japan. The integration with Uber Eats will be phased out by the end of this month, which will allow Rakuten account holders to log into Uber Eats without an Uber account and earn and use their Rakuten Points when using the app, the companies said on Monday.
After Wells Fargo & Co announced the Q1 financial results, Goldman Sachs Group analyst Richard Ramsden maintained$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US) $Neutral rating, target price raised to $56 from $54. Ramsden said Wells Fargo & Co's core pre-provision net income was 16 per cent worse than expected because core expense income was weak and expenditure increased, offsetting internal NII, but this was offset by more constructive forward-looking guidance, which was "much stronger than expected".
Truist analyst Neal Dingmann maintains the right$Devon Energy (DVN.US) $The target price was raised to $80. Devon Energy showed operational and financial confidence in its meeting with Truist, the analyst said. "they have no change in their substantial return plans for shareholders and are likely to pay more than 90 per cent of adjusted free cash flow again", the analyst said. He said that even if oil field service prices were likely to rise in the second half of 2022, Devon Energy "seems to remain the industry leader and will ensure that there are no production bottlenecks or soaring costs". He also pointed out that Devon Energy is confident that production will rebound and remain stable in the second quarter after a possible decline in production in the first quarter.
Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, reiterated his right$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The overweight rating and the target price of $1300. Adam believes that Tesla, Inc. will play a key role in rebuilding the renewable energy / transport industry, while his traditional automotive business has natural advantages: 1) directly facing consumers 2) the multi-trillion-dollar battery capital expenditure cycle is estimated to cost as much as $2 billion to $40 trillion in cumulative capital expenditure and research and development costs over the next 20 years to move away from fossil fuels, while only 1 per cent of this amount has been spent and less than 3 per cent has been allocated. "We think Tesla, Inc. is the ultimate battery capex game," Adam said. "at a cost of $80m per gigawatt hour, the capital expenditure required for battery manufacturing alone could be between $1.5tn and $3,000bn, and with other related aspects, potential expenditure could reach $10 trillion to $20 trillion or more within 20 years."
Focus on China-listed stocks
![]()
DiDi Global Inc. released his results for the fourth quarter of 2021 on the evening of April 16. DiDi Global Inc. 's total income in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 40.78 billion yuan, down 12.7 percent from the same period last year; the net loss in the fourth quarter was 171 million yuan, compared with 7.23 billion yuan in the same period last year; and the total income of China's travel business in the fourth quarter was 37.47 billion yuan, down 15.1 percent from the same period last year. International business income in the fourth quarter was 1.05 billion yuan, up 51.2% from the same period last year. The company also announced that it would hold a general meeting on May 23 to vote on the delisting of American depositary shares. As of press time, DiDi Global Inc. was down 19.11% before trading.
$Sohu.com Ltd (SOHU.US) $Founder, Chairman and CEO Zhang Chaoyang posted on moments that Sohu.com Ltd did not want to be delisted. "some self-media writers know that they do not know the other, write articles to bad-mouth Sohu.com Ltd, and ridicule my live physics class. It's really not necessary. Sohu.com Ltd previously announced that the company had been added to the interim confirmation list by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) based on the Foreign Company Accountability Act (HFCAA) on April 12, and the company did not intend to challenge the provisional recognition of SEC.
According to App, recently, industrial and commercial changes have taken place in Beijing Changxing Information Technology Co., Ltd., an affiliated company of "tick-tock travel".$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $CEO Li Bin stepped down as a director of the company after taking up his executive post in 2015. According to the official website, Didi Chuxing is an Internet travel platform, providing taxi and hitchhiking services.
On April 18, NIO Inc. changed the power station to Nanjing Jiangning Auchan, which was officially launched. It is reported that NIO Inc. has built a total of 900 power stations across the country, and NIO Inc. users have changed electricity more than 8 million times. NIO Inc. said that the layout will continue in the future, with 1300 + exchange power stations, 6000 + overcharged piles and 10,000 + destination charging piles will be built in the Chinese market in 2022.
On April 18th, according to the report of New Entropy, an anonymous person close to Bilibili Inc. said$Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) $The live broadcast business unit plans to lay off staff, and the list has been initially drawn up, and there will be a layoff interview after the Shanghai area returns to normal. This layoff will affect the whole live broadcast department. In response to the above news, Bilibili Inc. said in response to the interface news, "the live broadcast business is very good. Gross profit has been improving for three years in a row. The future is one of Bilibili Inc. 's most important businesses and is currently actively recruiting." "
Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20
![]()
A reminder of macroscopic examples in the United States
22:00 NAHB real estate market index for April
At 04:00 the next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Brad of St. Louis talked about economic and monetary policy.