如果10年期美债收益率突破其40年的下行趋势，可能被视为一个新的上行趋势的开始。这将意味着利率将持续上升，股价将持续承压。这种影响也将是广泛的。
随着美国国债收益率触及「有史以来最重要的趋势线」，债券市场长达40年的牛市正面临压力。
Worth charting公司的技术分析师Carter Braxton Worth表示，随着10年期美国国债收益率触及「有史以来最重要的趋势线」的阻力位，持续40年的利率下降趋势可能即将结束。
债券价格随着利率下降而上升。在通胀达到创纪录水平和经济扩张之际，美联储正在加息，以帮助给需求降温、抑制通胀。
如今，受到广泛关注的10年期美国国债收益率，正在向其40年的下降趋势线逼近。该趋势线始于1981年的利率峰值15.81%。
Worth上周在推特上写道：
根据完整历史数据画出的长期趋势线，是美债十年期收益率最重要的趋势线，在任何市场都是如此。
它之所以如此重要，是因为10年期美债收益率是走高还是走低，将对股市和风险资产的整体定价产生广泛影响。
Worth认为，如果10年期美国国债收益率突破其40年的下行趋势，可能被视为一个新的上行趋势的开始。这将意味着利率将持续上升，股价将持续承压。
但如果10年期美债收益率在向下倾斜的趋势线上并没有反弹迹象，人们可能预期利率将在更长时间内持续走低，这可能有助于提升风险资产估值，并推动股价上涨。
Worth周一在接受CNBC采访时表示：
这是自1981年峰值以来的完全相同的趋势线，这条线在2.81%的水平发挥作用……我们对这条线的反应真的决定了很多——我们是会因为经济衰退即将到来而退缩，还是真的会以一种有意义的方式去突破。
他补充称，他认为该利率没有太多上升空间。
如果Worth的评估是正确的，这对股市投资者来说将是一个受欢迎的信号。今年早些时候，标普500指数已经遭遇了超过10%的回调。
10年期美债收益率目前触及2.866%的高点，略高于Worth密切关注的2.81%的收益率水平。除非这一利率迅速停止上涨，否则股市的走势可能会变得更加艰难。
美联储计划在5月份加息50个基点，这可能使10年期美债收益率结束40年下行趋势、开启新的长期上升趋势真正「板上钉钉」。这实际上结束了长达数十年的债券牛市。
此前彭博的数据也表明，持续四十年的美债牛市可能彻底终结了。彭博的一项衡量美债总回报率的指标今年下跌了近8%，而且随着市场对加息押注的增加，这一指标有望创下至少自1973年以来最大的年度跌幅，这可能标志着长达40年的债券牛市彻底结束。
If 10-year Treasury yields break through its 40-year downward trend, it could be seen as the beginning of a new upward trend. This will mean that interest rates will continue to rise and share prices will continue to be under pressure. The impact will also be widespread.
The 40-year bull market in the bond market is under pressure as Treasury yields hit the "most important trend line in history".
Carter Braxton Worth, a technical analyst at Worth charting, saidThe 40-year downward trend in interest rates may be coming to an end as 10-year Treasury yields hit the resistance level of the "most important trend line in history".
Bond prices rise as interest rates fall. At a time of record inflation and economic expansion, the Fed is raising interest rates to help cool demand and curb inflation.
Today, the widely watched 10-year Treasury yield is approaching its 40-year downward trend line. The trend line began with interest rates peaking at 15.81% in 1981.
Worth tweeted last week:
The long-term trend line drawn based on complete historical data is the most important trend line for 10-year US Treasury yields, as is the case in any market.
It is so important because whether 10-year Treasury yields rise or fall will have a broad impact on the overall pricing of equities and risky assets.
Worth believes that if 10-year Treasury yields break through its 40-year downward trend, it could be seen as the beginning of a new upward trend. This will mean that interest rates will continue to rise and share prices will continue to be under pressure.
But if 10-year Treasury yields show no sign of rebounding on the downward trend line, interest rates may be expected to stay lower for a longer period of time, which could help boost risky asset valuations and push up share prices.
Worth said in an interview with CNBC on Monday:
This is exactly the same trend line since its peak in 1981, which works at 2.81%. Our reaction to this line really determines whether we will hold back because of the impending recession, or whether we will really break through in a meaningful way.
He added that he did not think there was much room for the rate to rise.
If Worth's assessment is correct, it will be a welcome signal for stock market investors. Earlier this year, the s & p 500 had suffered a correction of more than 10%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is now hitting a high of 2.866 per cent, slightly higher than the 2.81 per cent yield closely watched by the Worth.Unless the interest rate stops rising quickly, the stock market is likely to become more difficult.
The Fed plans to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May, which could end the 40-year downward trend in 10-year Treasury yields and start a new long-term upward trend. This effectively ended a decades-long bull market in bonds.
Previous data from Bloomberg also suggested that the 40-year bull market in U. S. debt may have come to an end. A Bloomberg measure of the total return on US debt is down nearly 8 per cent this year, and as market bets on raising interest rates increaseThe measure is on track for the biggest annual decline since at least 1973, which could mark the end of a 40-year bond bull market.
