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大悦城(000031):业绩扭亏为盈 积极布局整装待发

Dayue City (000031): the performance is turned from deficit to profit and the active layout is ready to go.

國信證券 ·  Apr 13, 2022 13:11  · Researches

After completing the asset restructuring of "A-controlled red chip" in 2019, the company has become the only real estate business platform under the central enterprise Cofco Group, and the cooperation of residential and commercial two-wheel drive is stronger: in 2021, the company's operating income was 42.6 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. Among them, the income from sales of property was 35.6 billion yuan, up 9% from the same period last year, accounting for 84%; the income from investment property was 5.05 billion yuan, up 14% from the same period last year, accounting for 12%.

The performance turned from loss to profit, and the retained profit did not pay a dividend for the time being: the net profit in 2021 was 770 million yuan, down 32% from the same period last year; the net profit from home became positive, at 110 million yuan; and the net profit rate from home increased slightly, but it was still only 0.3%. Mainly because (1) the gross profit margin decreased by 4.0% to 27.4%, mainly due to the development and settlement gross profit margin decreased by 5.7% to 22.0%. (2) the provision for impairment of assets results in a decrease of 2.13 billion yuan in net profit, and (3) a loss of 1.44 billion yuan in investment income. In order to ensure the follow-up business needs, there will be no dividend in 2021.

The contracted sales increased steadily, and the land acquisition intensity was maintained: in 2021, the company's sales volume was 72.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last year; although the sales area decreased by 8% year-on-year to 2.87 million yuan, the average sales price increased by 14% to 25331 yuan per million; and set a sales target of 80 billion yuan in 2022. In 2021, the company added 3.27 million square meters of land storage capacity, with a new land storage coverage rate of 114%, a land acquisition amount of 31.6 billion yuan, and a land acquisition intensity of 44%, demonstrating the company's investment capacity against the trend. By the end of 2021, the company's land storage can be sold with a value of about 223 billion yuan.

Maintain the leading edge of commercial real estate and adhere to the "both important and important" expansion model: the company has worked hard in the shopping center field for many years, focusing on sharpening its operational capabilities, and has now built a "2percent X" product line. In 2021, the company acquired 1 heavy asset project, landed 7 light asset projects, and opened 4 new projects. By the end of 2021, 24 projects have been opened, with a total commercial construction area of 2.94 million square meters, and 20 reserve projects with a total commercial construction area of about 1.79 million square meters. The company plans to expand no less than 7 light asset projects in 2022. In 2021, the output income of the project management of the company's shopping malls and office buildings is 190 million yuan, accounting for 63% of the management output income.

Financial optimization continued, and financing costs fell: by the end of 2021, the company's net debt ratio was 90%, cash short-debt ratio was 1.4%; excluding pre-received asset-liability ratio was 70.3%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year, only one step away from the green file. Companies accurately grasp the timing of financing, with an average cost of new borrowing of 4.63% in 2021; by the end of 2021, the average cost of financing was 4.91%, down 0.19 percentage points from the end of last year.

Investment suggestion: the company is actively laid out and ready to go. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 2022 and 2023 is 1.81 billion yuan and 2.02 billion yuan respectively, the EPS corresponding to the latest equity is 0.42,0.47 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the latest stock price is 10.6,9.5 times respectively.

Risk tips: the company's development property sales and settlement are not as expected, investment property expansion, income is not as expected, the provision for asset impairment is higher than expected, or the improvement of the market environment is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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