Event: according to the company's annual report for 2021, the company achieved 13.4 billion yuan in operating income in 21 years, + 51% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to its mother was 2.1 billion yuan, + 479% compared with the same period last year; of which Q4 achieved operating income of 3.5 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 234% year-on-year and-4% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of returning to the mother was 500 million yuan, + 123% and-18% respectively.
Comments:
The price of the main products has risen sharply with a high growth in 21 years: the sales volume of nylon 66 industrial silk, nylon 66 cord fabric, nylon 66 slices and adipic acid in 21 years is 61600 tons, 77300 tons, 134500 tons and 175300 tons respectively, which is + 16.1%, + 24.8%,-18.3% and-6.3% respectively compared with the same period last year. The average selling price was 304,000 yuan / ton, 391000 yuan / ton, 311,000 yuan / ton and 0.950 million yuan / ton respectively, which was + 22.5%, + 28.6%, + 70.1% and + 69.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. The purchase prices of raw materials adiponitrile and refined benzene were 158,000 yuan / ton and 0.61 million yuan / ton respectively, up 14.6% and 72.13% over the same period last year. In 2021, some overseas chemical plants were affected by extreme weather and other factors, resulting in a tense relationship between global supply and demand. The price of the company's main products rose sharply, profitability increased significantly, and 21-year performance achieved high growth.
Increasing investment in Shanghai Shenma 60,000 tons / year nylon 66 slicing project is expected to improve the company's economic benefits: on March 10, 2022, the company decided to increase its wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Shenma Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd. to speed up the construction of its project with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of special nylon 66 slices (the first phase of 20,000 tons). The project mainly includes 8000 tons / year rapid prototyping thermal stability nylon chips, 4000 tons / year high viscosity injection grade nylon chips, 2000 tons / year moistening nylon chips, 1000 tons / year copolymer nylon chips and so on. According to the feasibility study report of the project, it is expected that the year the project reaches production will bring 510 million yuan of sales revenue for the company, and the layout of the nylon 66 industrial chain will be further improved after the project is put into production.
Expand the industrial chain horizontally and create a multi-product matrix: the first phase of the 25000-ton BOPA film project at the end of October, the 100000-ton PC project in November, and the 130000-ton bisphenol A project in December. By the end of 21, the company mainly has 210000 tons of nylon 66 chip production capacity, 133000 tons of nylon 66 industrial silk production capacity, 90,000 tons of nylon 66 cord fabric production capacity, 130000 tons of bisphenol A production capacity, 100000 tons of PC production capacity, 10,000 tons of BOPA production capacity and 290000 tons of adipic acid production capacity. In 22 years, the company will continue to promote the construction of industrial hydrogen-to-ammonia projects with an annual output of 400000 tons, 1,6-hexanediol projects with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons, and adipic nitrile projects with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons. After the company is currently under construction and put into production, the layout of the industrial chain will be further improved, and the performance is expected to continue to thicken.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: the nylon industry is booming, the company's profitability is significantly improved, and the company's performance is expected to accelerate the release of new production capacity in the future, so we raise the company's profit forecast for 2022-2023 and add 2024 profit forecasts. The net profit for 2022-2024 is expected to be 23.55 (up 17%) / 25.96 (up 9%) / 2.845 billion yuan respectively. Equivalent to EPS2.26/2.49/2.72 yuan, maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: new capacity is not as expected; raw material prices fluctuate; downstream demand recovery is not as expected